International US investors warned to brace for lost decade

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Perthguy, 14th Mar, 2017.

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  1. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    The late Sir John Templeton once said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” A week ago, bullish sentiment among investment advisors soared to the highest level in 30 years (Investor’s Intelligence), joined last week by a 16-year high in consumer confidence. When one recognizes that the prior peak in bullish sentiment corresponds to the 1987 market extreme, and the prior peak in consumer confidence corresponds to the 2000 bubble, Sir Templeton’s words take on both relevance and urgency.

    Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Blue Skies - March 13, 2017


    Good article. What implications for Australia? The All ords peaked in October 2007 at 6,779 and is currently at 5,793. Australia has already experienced a lost decade. Is there is risk if the US stock market corrects that Australia will too?
     
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  2. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Why will it correct? everything I have been reading is opposite. I don't invest in US stock market??
    I have been reading that some believe Australian stock market is close to peak? I don't know???
     
  3. Ross Forrester

    Ross Forrester Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. Diversification, rebalancing and dollar cost averaging.

    Wins every time.

    I am a boglehead.
     
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  4. Phase2

    Phase2 Well-Known Member

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    I see optimism, but not euphoria in the US market at the moment. If next qtr.'s growth is 10% I'd be looking for an exit plan (I'm not directly invested, but I might put my super back to cash)
    Euphoria tends to be the 10% qtr on qtr growth that we see before the crash.. and you still need a trigger for the crash.

    Australia will be hit if he US tumbles.. it always is. The sharemarkets are driven by short-term sentiment, businesses are driven by fundamentals :)
     
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  5. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Did you read the article? This guy predicted the 2000 tech bubble crash and the 2007 stock market crash.

    It's like the property market. First there is a boom, then there is a correction. The cause of the correction is different each time but it is inevitable and preceded by a period of market euphoria.
     
  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    The US economy is going great guns, interest rates will continue to rise this will impact on Au$ and also our interest rates and I believe our property markets.

    I just got back from US and I see lots of reasons for people to be optimistic as mentioned before property markets are currently rising/booming as well.
     
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