US economy under Trump

Discussion in 'Politics' started by MTR, 18th Jul, 2018.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Bring on more taxes... its a good mid term promise.... ;)


    Workers' Benefits Boom After Tax Cuts — So Why Not Make Them Permanent?

    Extract...

    The truth is, as a new report shows, average American workers are benefiting not solely by having their incomes boosted by tax cuts, but by having bigger benefit-packages, too.

    Rather than focus on the abstract benefits of the tax changes, Americans for Tax Reform has listed literally dozens of companies that are delivering more benefits to their workers, thanks to tax cuts.

    In a faster growing economy with a tightening labor market — and that's where we are right now, with 4.1% GDP growth and a 3.8% unemployment rate — companies have much greater incentives to retain good workers. So, with the higher profits from tax cuts, they boost pay and benefits.


    Got to love her...
    Tax cuts and more money in your pocket is nothing but a ‘dark cloud’ for Democrats
     
  2. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    You seem to be contridicting yourself.

    The Australian economy is very closely linked to the rest of the world - and mostly to the US and it's primary product trading in the NY market and it's stock market. You only have observe how the ASX follows the DowJones.

    So, if the US is booming then Australia will follow suit - if the US is tanking then Australia will be the canary in the coalmine (being a more globally sensitive export market).

    You can't have it both ways
     
  3. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I agree if US share market tanks so will Australia, that's my point... I thought I explained this

    There are many other factors that impact on the state on an economy, ie jobs, manufacturing, tax reforms, regulations, interest rates, government, market sentiment, business confidence, property markets etc etc

    As I mentioned earlier GDP is the benchmark/measure of the health of an economy, current GDP figure of 4.2% is an indication of strong economy, high productivity. You appear to be ignoring this major factor.
     
    Last edited: 25th Oct, 2018
  4. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Because I am a wide reader in terms of how economies function and understand the GDP is not all it seems at face value - and is definitely not reflective of how it is presented by the government ... and neither is employment rates (but we've already discussed that the official rate is radically different from the true rate).

    "Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson noted at the recently concluded World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, "GDP is a poor way of assessing the health of our economies and we urgently need to find a new measure."

    Full article here: Why GDP fails as a measure of well-being

    Dozens (I simply picked the one at the top) advise that the majority of the strong GDP is caused by the tax cuts to the 1% and the introduction of tariffs

    Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% for best pace in nearly four years

    GDP is also the "gross" - so if the top 1% of individuals makes a damn fine tidy turnover (boosted by recent tax cuts) their improvement drags up the entire GDP calculation. GDP also includes increases in profit due to the increase in automation rather than human jobs. This improvement is not necessarily reflected in the other 99%.
     
    Last edited: 25th Oct, 2018
  5. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Except that he promised the cuts would be enacted prior to the mid-terms - yet congress is not sitting again until "after" the mid terms and Trump has advised he will not be signing it as an executive decision ... a promise made that he is fully aware he cannot deliver on. So - he knowingly lied

    Trump is already backtracking on his promise for a 'very major tax cut' before the midterms
     
  6. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Perhaps you meant "Bring in more tax cuts"?
    Not only Fox News, but from February.

    And the other one from July.

    For a view from Forbes, from September. This one focuses on corporate tax cuts rather than personal cuts.
    Who Benefits From The Tax Cut 10 Months Later

    GDP is very much a reactive indicator. If the economy was starting to go bad, it's likely to show in the stock exchange well before it shows in the GDP.
     
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  7. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    No - you said this: "Personally I have far more concerns Australia will tank with what is currently happening, time will tell"
     
  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I am probably the opposite to you... pay very little attention to economists and experts, they always seem to get it wrong. I much prefer to see what is happening on the ground, and also pays to not focus on the left baised media, they will always down play any of Trumps successes. Especially now they are heading for mid termed. Mind you, its a tad difficult cos the numbers don't lie.

    You we go again, this is an oldie but a goodie, reason why they always get it wrong

    "Ten Reasons Why Economists Always Get It Wrong."
     
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  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Yes I do have more concerns about Oz......and I was right Oz share market tanked today

    Its going to be one hell of a roller coast ride......

    Not only shares but Australan property market is going south
     
  10. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    It's following the US share market down ... so can't have it both way - Australia tanking and the US booming
     
  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    ..Yes, but we are talking stock market correcting.... does not mean the economy is collapsing.
     
  12. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    That depends on the length and the severity of the correction. A severe extended correction can definitely influence the economy as a whole.
    How does the stock market affect gross domestic product (GDP)?

    At this stage, it's just at the same level it's been at since the start of the year. It's been dropping for less than a month. It may just be a correction allowing for the overexuberant price rises leading up to the start of the year.
     
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  13. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    It is gong to be gripping watching this unfold. Where USA companies have exposure to China area of influence and supply lines, and many do, especially in the tech area, then the costs including the cost of the tariffs are not going to be flash for their bottom lines. So absorb costs, ie less profit, or pass those costs on to unhappy customers. If that pans out it doesn't auger well for earnings and most likely share prices.
     
  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    So any other reasons why oz shares tank today??

    Interest rate rises
    Negative market sentiment
    Property markets tanking
    Economy

    Any thoughts
     
  15. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Interest rates - reserve bank hasn't moved but banks have, yet lending has tightened responsibly
    Market sentiment isn't negative - but viewing of the mid-terms is
    Property market has slid back - as it always does after an overshoot in capital cities, mainly it's stalled
    Economy - wages haven't risen in line with inflation, same as the US

    Main reason? Following the Dow Jones
     
  16. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Quarter 3 shows 3.5%
     
  17. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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  18. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    There is the possibility that GM will be using this as a way to get concessions from the government.
     
  19. KinG3o0o

    KinG3o0o Well-Known Member

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    microsoft is winning !! no.1
     
  20. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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