US economy under Trump

Discussion in 'Politics' started by MTR, 18th Jul, 2018.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
Page 3 of 6
  1. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    9,627
    Location:
    Planet A
    Rather a worry that it's nearly back to GFC levels ... guess the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts to the wealthy aren't filtering down. Just saddened the senate are talking about health care cuts to the poorest instead

    US monthly budget deficit largest in 6 years
     
    Last edited: 17th Oct, 2018
    Lizzie, 17th Oct, 2018
    #41
    marty998 likes this.
  2. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    15th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,677
    Location:
    Newcastle
    I've mentioned that I didn't see tax cuts as appropriate in a growing economy.

    While there's massive potential income with jobs on the increase, an ideal time to get the debt under control, they have chosen instead to give tax cuts, further increasing the debt.

    Increased tariffs are likely to not have much of an impact on the debt. The amounts collected from tariffs are very much smaller than amounts collected from taxes; people are going to reduce what they spend on goods which have had increased prices due to tariffs.
     
    geoffw, 17th Oct, 2018
    #42
    Lizzie likes this.
  3. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,304
    Location:
    Democratic People's Republic of Australia
    Unemployment in the US is down to 3.7%- the lowest since 1969. United States Unemployment Rate | 1948-2018 | Data | Chart | Calendar

    Asset prices are steadily rising and the Fed is raising interest rates, which usually indicates a strong economy. The only criticism of Trump from an economic standpoint is that he’s not pursing enough inclusive growth policies to tackle economic inequality within the USA, which has been an issue since the early 1980’s.
     
    2FAST4U, 17th Oct, 2018
    #43
  4. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    14,015
    Location:
    Brisbane
    The stock market isn't doing too well this past week. It is dropping like a stone. Hopefully it comes back up. I've never worried too much about this, but as we get close to being able to take some out tax-free, it becomes front of mind.
     
    wylie, 17th Oct, 2018
    #44
  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World
    Its up again

    Stocks volitile
     
    MTR, 17th Oct, 2018
    #45
  6. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    15th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,677
    Location:
    Newcastle
    I'd be surprised if a rise like the recent one is really sustainable. This is the sort of overexuberant ride that frequently comes before a big fall.
    Screenshot_20181017-130441.png
    Compared to the Australian All Ords
    Screenshot_20181017-131131.png
     
    Last edited: 17th Oct, 2018
    geoffw, 17th Oct, 2018
    #46
  7. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    14,015
    Location:
    Brisbane
    My super is continuing to drop like a stone. International shares.

    I know stocks are volatile.
     
    wylie, 17th Oct, 2018
    #47
  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World
    so will you sell or just hold?? Its a worry, may be up next week??
     
    MTR, 17th Oct, 2018
    #48
  9. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    9,627
    Location:
    Planet A
    Apparently the true figure is running at 16% unemployment - just most have either dropped off welfare altogether (and hence not counted), shifted to disability or under-employed.

    This figure rises to around 25% in the rust belt areas - which is why Trump appeals so much, blaming immigrants and foreign countries, rather than the true cause which is automation

    Real unemployment rate - 7.5% (but doesn't include disability or pensioned off who want to work):

    Does the Government Lie About Unemployment?

    The number sidetracked to "disability" has doubled in the last 10 years - up to 25% of working age adult in some areas. Interesting stories of people who have been pensioned off the unemployment but aren't really disabled:

    http://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/

    It pays to be cynical and look behind the figures "touted"
     
    Lizzie, 17th Oct, 2018
    #49
  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World
    This will also impact on Oz shares ??
     
    MTR, 17th Oct, 2018
    #50
  11. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,304
    Location:
    Democratic People's Republic of Australia
    The amount of people collecting welfare has nothing to do with unemployment. The unemployment rate is measured by a division of the Department of Labor known as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS. This government agency conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey that involves 60,000 households.

    The real unemployment rate is likely to be 7.5% as your link 'Does the Government Lie About Unemployment' link suggests. However, that link is similar to Australia's version, which is the Roy Morgan unemployment rate. Australia's official unemployment rate according to the ABS is 5.x% but according to Roy Morgan the actual unemployment in Australia is 11%!
    Unemployment at 11% in August highest for more than two years
     
    2FAST4U, 17th Oct, 2018
    #51
  12. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    9,627
    Location:
    Planet A
    I agree - but we're not discussing Australia on this thread.

    The number of people collecting welfare "does" reflect on unemployment when a large percentage of those that have been pushed off "unemployment" onto other welfare types are able and wanting to work - therefore they are unemployed. The hiding of the true unemployment rate, but putting people on other forms of welfare, makes a mockery of the claims of "low unemployment"
     
    Lizzie, 17th Oct, 2018
    #52
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World
    Yike 11% in Australia...:eek:
     
    MTR, 17th Oct, 2018
    #53
  14. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Feb, 2017
    Posts:
    1,165
    Location:
    NSW
    ASX We always followed Wall St lead not always the same extend, sometimes more, sometimes less but the same trend, it rally we rally, it get hammered we get hammered
     
    PandS, 17th Oct, 2018
    #54
  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World
    I thought that was the case.
    About 6 months ago US hammered, Oz followed.
     
    MTR, 17th Oct, 2018
    #55
  16. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    15th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,677
    Location:
    Newcastle
    It's interesting to compare the two.

    1. The ASX has not had anywhere near the same rise in recent years. So if the US stock market does go down, the All Ords doesn't have anywhere near as much to go down. Perhaps the All Ords is based much more on good fundamentals rather than exuberant expectations.
    2. Have a look through the one time in the Australian graph where it went up at the same rate the DJIA is going up. What happened just after that?
     
    geoffw, 17th Oct, 2018
    #56
  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World
    I think its way too broad to make these assumptions... how much it hurts will be dependent on what stocks/shares investors hold.

    One thing we do know is when or if US stock market crashes, it will impact on Oz share market which is what we are talking about. How much it will fall etc in Oz...… is guess work at best.
     
    MTR, 17th Oct, 2018
    #57
  18. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    9,627
    Location:
    Planet A
    Yep - and 16% in the US because they're better at hiding it
     
    Lizzie, 17th Oct, 2018
    #58
  19. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    15th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,677
    Location:
    Newcastle
    I don’t really know these things. It’s just that when I see something like the charts I’m seeing from the DJIA at the moment, it reminds me so much of similar I’ve seen in the past immediately preceding a crash. That sort of growth, at minimum, is probably not sustainable. The pattern would suggest to me that a softening is imminent, hopefully not worse that that.

    Here’s two more examples
    D62A6991-CEF8-4D31-AD48-BE82E8681FA0.jpeg 20E9BB28-4399-4C7E-B079-141BB8BDAF16.jpeg
     
    geoffw, 17th Oct, 2018
    #59
  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World
    I guess if sock mar
    Poor things US economy is in ruins:p

    Seriously though I am far more worried about Oz atm, property market.... APRA
     
    MTR, 17th Oct, 2018
    #60
Page 3 of 6
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.