Updated Property Stats for July 2016

Fair point..my goal is perhaps a bit diff than most here on this forum in that im smashing it on the job front and am currentlu and will make my money that way. Property to me is definately of interest, but is more a nice to have rather than a means of early retirement etc. To each their own...play to your strengths whether its properry, shares or other things.

 

Ta @melbournian. I'm always just trying to learn and make the best decision for me. Fortuitously I had 4 Sydney properties during the last boom so i've had just a bit of good fortune, playing my own game. But I could have easily bought a dog of a property up in regional Qld. After getting vibes of negative market then I also saw how high the vacancy rate was I pulled out..., I could have also sold a Sydney property before the boom because not much was happening, but I held it and i'm extremely happy I did.

@JDP1, love your hype posts too. Anything and everything will lead to a Brisbane boom lol. However they are to be taken with a grain of salt because I don't necessarily think they have a grounding in the truth.

For Brisbane I think there just doesn't seem to be the overwhelming demand if you were to compare Melbourne and Sydney to Brisbane. I know the % price differentials between Sydney and Brisbane must be at all time highs but people still need jobs to support the prices. Hearing of weaknesses in some of bread and butter areas for rents and the slowness to get tenants in some places makes me think its not all beer and skittles in Brisbane. Who knows, it can happen. But Melbourne and Sydney are more of a sure thing. Crazy as it sounds, people still want to buy house with land in Sydney even knowing that this boom has been going on since 2013.

Ps. I think Sydney is just like San Fran and New York... but if San Fran ever stops being a centre of innovation its prices will come right off. I dont see it happening soon however.

 

....till the next Minerals boom....watch Lithium......and any other minerals used for electronics and batteries.....I see Perth coming back to surprise people....not as long as people think...2020..onwards. Building industry is rubbish over there...so it will take time for soaking up of the current oversupply...once done...ta daa...new cycle.

People keep banging on about Brisbane...but in that time Melbourne outer areas have also performed extremely well. Many markets and markets within markets...not people get this...

 

Sash
Will agree with your comments on Melbourne still very good market, don't really follow stats as you know, I wish those re agents would stop phoning me, they need more stock, we know what this means

MTR

 

Yes....I know....the one at Hoppers Crossing bought for 170k.....is now 380k plus...and still climbing...unbelievable....

@Ari_X ....just bought one there and he told he that stock was really hard to come by..... same thing in Werribee....I plan to build a duplex on the block I own there....

 

I agree, as posted in another thread recently.
Sydney has major geographical restrictions that Melbourne doesn't have. Zoom out on google maps until you can see both cities and have a look.
This is going to put immense pressure on Sydney Metro area land prices as the population continues to grow.

This room for growth, I assume, is the main reason why the statisticians are calling Melbourne's population to over take Sydney in the next couple of decades. This added population will add pressure to desirable inner city Melbourne locations but the sprawl will continue and continue to provide lower cost housing further out. If the Government does their job and provides quality public transport to service these areas this will keep a lid on Melbourne median prices to a point.

Sydney however, is going to be forced to build up. Which as we all know places huge demand on land prices by developers.

Sydney is also a very desirable place to live with world class beaches, harbour, land marks and a strong economy (even when it appeared not to be because of booming mining states).

So IMO over the long term and planning for my retirement, Sydney land is the way to go.

 

Some good points, but at the end of the day its all about cycles, its not just about how desirable a city is or whether there is enough land or not enough, there are many more factors that come into play - demand and affordability is just two important factors to consider. Demand can turn to oversupply and if investors are not paying attention to the signs they can easily get burnt.

Some investors have short memories Sydney did actually crash around 2004 (20% drops in various areas and it did effect blue chip properties, once again investors ignore this, either because they don't have the experience, have not witnessed boom/bust cycles, only played in a boom cycle, caught up in the hype where property always rises etc etc. and I could go on

The Sydney market was in the doldrums for about 8 years and started rising/moving around 2012/13 and it did not start in the inner city the boom started in the western suburbs.

I just posted this, which may interest some people
Who are the Fools and who are the Suckers

 

Absolutely agree with the above, and I value all your posts and opinions very highly MTR

I bought my first place in '03 and held on through the loooong period of no growth, so have been through one full cycle and heading into my second. Lot's still to learn.

There will no doubt be better and worse times to buy.

However in my humble opinion, over the long term, through the cycles, Sydney has the best dynamics to support the highest rate of growth of land values.

Demand and affordability are both the things I allude to in my reasoning for Sydney land prices out performing.

Demand - lack of land, highly desirable place to live, consistently strong economy (long term)

Affordability - Is an issue, but converting freestanding houses into higher density housing provides more affordable accommodation.

 

I'm happy with outer Melbourne performing. Werribee has started to move. Getting lots of letters from agents trying to sell my places on a regular basis in the last 6 months.
8.58% growth in 12 months, 2.68% quarterly growth, all whilst positive cashflow from the start.

 

If/when it stops being games, we might have an influx of permanent tourists. Again.

 

Yes ....Werribee has gone a little crazy lately....almost to the point of farcical to what people want.

Having said that ...it is one of the few places in Melbourne where you are 25 klms out and can still get something under 350k. I guess...the naysayers got it all wrong......I can see Werribee and surrounds having a 4 in front of houses within the next 3-4 years.....

 

Ssssh...Please do not tell the members from Sydney about Werribee...or we will have a 4 in front of houses within a month.

 

They won't believe you mate.........seriously....they will laugh in your face.

 

Actually a lot of sydney investors have become active here and REAs are more than happy to leverage that information when negotiating.
I missed out on at least one property as a sydneysider put in an offer more than 12 % what I was prepared to offer.
Other agents also have similar stories- Birdcage has started commanding a premium for (you know what)

 

Werribee are long term keepers and stress free. Have been from the start. Sash I agree and also believe 4 in front, in time.

 

Yeah...know what you mean....the longer one holds the luckier they get.....heading towards a 15m plus portfolio in 5 years...and 20 plus in 10years....all with the magic of compounding.

For example lets say the average property in your portfolio is 400k....and you 30 of them. That is 12m now...give it 10 years...you should be at 20-25m just with average growth.

 

Good thread. @sash
Wanna predict the next 5 years?

Hi

I am seeing that Sydney is looking cheap compared to other states in terms of property prices. Even a global scale you can buy houses within 40 klms of the Sydney CBD for less than 400k. Even Melbourne, Adelaide, and Brisbane look cheap when you go out 30-40 klms.

I know that Gen Y don't like living in their suburbs but as they age they will change their expeactations just like my generation (Gen X) did. This along with high immigration, high birth rates (need for a backyard for kids), and an endemic structural planning issue which both the state and federal governments are failing to address is going to cause the lack of supply and thus the Mother of All Booms.

The article below also support some of what I am saying...

http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...ery-reserve-bank/story-e6frfmd0-1225838977173

So...what happens once this booms happens....just make sure you are not holding the can in 2014-2015..

Would love to hear other views.

 

Now that's a pretty good post, even @sash speculation of it runing 4-5 years till letting up was pretty on the money with things certainly slowing and coming off in late 2015.

 

Uhm SF is more expensive for "every day living" than NY.

Ignore the "bazillionaire" headline grabbing sales of Manhattan and look to the suburbs and you'll find more pressure on people renting and living in SF than NYC.

 

Over the last 5 years or so, brisbane has started on a transitional path to developing non mining economy ( i speak for Bcc only). This is in the face of slow growth in non mining country wide and also slow global gdp growth. Nevertheless they have made good progress in only 5 years or so. This diversification means there will likely not be a boom this cycle, rather a continuation of whatbwe are currently seeing-maybe a bit more forciful but noy significantly so. Brisbane will be more mature and developed non mining at the end of this cycle and will serve as a good base for a likely boom next cycle.

By the way, you cant say qld is like Oklahoma etc...what do you think we are? Trump supporters? ...