Updated Property Stats for July 2016

Here are stats for July for those interested (Corelogic)

Check out Melbourne median house price compared to Sydney, as I mentioned on a number of occasions Melbourne still represents good value.

The CoreLogic June Home Value Index results reported a 0.5% rise in capital city dwelling values over the month with five capitals recording a fall in dwelling values while Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart values show another substantial rise.

Higher dwelling values across Australia’s two largest capital cities continued to push the CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index to new record highs, with dwelling values across the combined capital cities rising by 0.5% in June to be 8.3% higher over the past twelve months.



The June results continued to show a rebound in housing market conditions after CoreLogic reported weaker results for the final quarter of 2015 when the combined capitals’ index was down 1.4%.

Importantly, the pace of capital gains in June was substantially lower than the April and May results when CoreLogic reported a 1.7%, and 1.6% month-on-month lift in capital city dwelling values.

The monthly growth rate reduction is likely to be very much welcomed by state and federal government policy makers and regulators who may be concerned about a sustained rebound in capital gains.

The combined capitals’ headline result was driven by a strong 1.2% rise in Sydney dwelling values, and a 0.8% gain across Melbourne’s housing market.

Hobart values also showed strong conditions with dwelling values moving 1.8% higher over the month.

Although the headline results are positive, five of Australia’s eight capital cities recorded a decline in dwelling values in June.

Monthly declines of more than 1% were recorded in Darwin (-1.6%), Adelaide (-1.3%) and Canberra (-1.1%), while the falls in the Brisbane market (-0.1%) and Perth (-0.8%) were less severe.

Darwin dwelling values are down by 0.2% over the first half of 2016 and have fallen by a cumulative 6.9% since the recent peak in May 2014.

The latest update on overall housing market performance provides a timely view on dwelling value appreciation over the 2015/16 financial year.

Capital city dwelling values have increased by 8.3% over the financial year which is lower than what was recorded over the previous two financial years when capital city dwelling values were 9.8% higher over 2014/15 and 10.1% higher in 2013/14.

The recent peak rate of annual growth was recorded in July last year when capital city dwelling values were 11.1% higher over the preceding twelve month period.



With capital city dwelling values moving higher, at least at a macro level, there has been some further slippage in gross rental yields.

The average gross rental yield across the combined capital cities hasn’t been this low since the CoreLogic rental series commenced in 1996.

 

July Chart Pack

Monthly Housing & Economic Update | CoreLogic RP Data

 

Very interesting data.

I wil comment on Sydney.

11% more listings in July compared to same period last year yet 29% decline in new listings. Most likely reason is that units aren't selling at all in Sydney and listings are piling up. At the same time, there's a growing shortage for land hence fewer new listings in total.

If we experience an increase in overseas students intake this year (possible due to Brexit, USA fast losing student welcoming reputation), unit prices won't fall but I still won't expect price growth due to strong supply pipeline. OTP bloodbath is imminent for certain suburbs like Parramatta.

Prediction for next 12 months:

• Units - No growth at all for established dwelling but decline in value for newer developments
• Houses - 10%+ growth (could be more in hotspots)

 

That how markets turn, it starts with more stock coming to market and then eventually oversupply.
Will see what happens in 2017.

 

Surprising that Adelaide's median house price is only $55,000 less than Brisbane, yet Melbourne's median house price is $200,000 less than Sydney.... that's a hint.

 

The more I think about it th more I think Melb still has room to go, and if we continue to do it steadily (unlike Syd) then we could go for another 2-3 years.

Maybe I am letting my hope cloud my judgement though. It's easy to do.

 

I agree so too (for suburbs just on the 400-600K) within the corridor of the blue chip suburbs, this is where the growth is. going across to the capitals of australia (sydney, melbourne and brisbane) to see properties and auctions, the auction culture and demand is quite high in melbourne same as sydney.

 

the way I interpret that, taking into consideration wages, job opps/macroecon, etc.
Adelaide-Brisbane gap- shouldn't be just 55k separating them. this means adl is overvalued and/or Brisbane is undervalued.

The sydney-Melbourne gap is about right. maybe a little small.

The bn-mel gap is a bit too big representing either undercooked Brisbane and/or overvalued Melbourne.

No idea about historically what its been, but it needs to be matched cycle to cycle - ie at the right points in the cycle.

 

Small? as in it should grow closer to sydney. similar to the gap as adelaide and brisbane.

 

I'm going to call Perth and Darwin to fall further.
And I think pretty much everybody above me makes reasonable sense. In particular I think @standtall's comment on Sydney is fair and @MTR's comment on Melbourne too.
Only comment i'm not so much in agreement with is with @JDP1. (Sorry).

 

Would appreciate if you can mention specific suburb names?

 

Disagree with me at your own risk
China is playing war games in the south china seas. This will result in a huge wave of tourists to brisbane..and can only mean one thing:boom inevitable

 

Nope. My prediction is sydney to pull away from melbourne. Over time, the combo of geographical supply restrictions with the best demand in australia should see sydney comfortably retain its numero uno position.
Melbl will do well but wont catch up with sydney. This current gap is about as small as there will be.
In the not too distant future, we will be increasingly talking about a little old dustbowl country town punching with the likes of Melbourne

 

Means Adel will need to build more submarines

 

Hahaha u make my day sometimes with ur entertaining comments don't u feel the Brisbane hype stuff is like the TV series walking dead ?

I have a fren who used to say which advice would u rely on? The one who is only worth less than 1 mil or the one who has made 10 mil?I normally would follow the insights of an investor Who has made it which I think @Gockie has

 

I agree with u this one Sydney will always remain the no.1 in Australia no question abt it. It is like the New York of USA. gap wise will Melb is like a San Francisco though still stable but not reach the likes of no.1

Brisbane more like oklahoma or a Cleveland wanting To be big but just not have the factors or market to make the leap. Like a scene from the Russell Crowe movie "beautiful mind"

 

In 2017, Sydney and Melbourne both will suffer from extreme cold weathers but miraculously -------- weather will change to a year round warm summer pattern resulting in massive migration to ------- thus putting an extreme pressure on housing stocks and resulting in doubling of home prices by the beginning of 2018. All shrew investors are already aware of this and they are rushing to buy but it's just the start of the cycle and anyone who invests there in next few weeks will be able to be a part of this unprecedented growth opportunity.

(Fill in above blanks with any city of your choice and feel free to customise it further)

 

I do like living in Bali though

 

Sydney has geographic boundaries which Melbourne doesn't so the price differential is likely to stay IMO.

 

Then...Perth and Darwin must be Detroit