Units in Dandenong v Blacktown - help me understand

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by meme plecko, 31st Jan, 2016.

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  1. meme plecko

    meme plecko Well-Known Member

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    @euro73, you should write an ebook on Australian RE, your depth of knowledge is second to none. I wwil be the first one to buy it (with the propertychat discount, of course).

    Now, tell me, outer Melbourne units in the next 5-10 years, yay or nay? :)
     
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  2. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Why would you want it to happen though? As an investor, I wouldn’t want my properties in areas to suddenly be less attractive/valuable to buyers because there is easy access to a whole heap of land (in essence massive accessible supply come on the market) for much less the price. Makes no sense for me to want that. I would much prefer a slower process controlling the amount of decent supply come on the market across Sydney.
     
    Last edited: 31st Jan, 2016
  3. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Everything I post here is free of charge :)

    I actually quite like inner Melbourne for the next 5-10 years, rather than outer Melbourne.

    Simply because, right now its badly oversupplied and offering rubbish yields and growth (much like is about to happen to Brisbane's CBD ) but Melbourne will become the most populated city in Australia eventually and unlike Brisbane, Melbourne will absorb the oversupply relatively quickly - Brisbane's inner city apartment market is going to see lots of investors pouring lots of cash in just to hold on... even at these low rates.

    back to Melbourne - you can buy apartments within 5KM of Melbourne, with great access to transport and liftesyle and universities and medical facilities - places like Richmond, Brunswick etc - even a little further out in places like Footscray , which would cost you twice as much or more, in Sydney ...

    Just compare a brand 2 bed apartment in Brunswick with a brand new 2 bed apartment in Glebe or Newtown. 550-600K vs $1Mil +

    Or a brand new 2 bedder in Footscray for mid 400's.... you couldnt get into low-mid 400's 2 bedder 50KM out Sydney , let alone 9-10KM out like Footscray.

    If you can tolerate the crappy yields ( because of the oversupply ) for the next few years and take a 10 year view, and if it doesnt snooker you from other plans you have, then I suspect you'll see the oversupply pendulum swing back towards undersupply and rents will improve quite a lot and the end of the rainbow will deliver you a nice result.... but you have to be able to hold it long enough.
     
  4. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    I dont - my point was that Sydney prices are underpinned by it's geography and Govt incompetence, so big falls are unlikely for any reason other than big rate rises or big unemployment - and will ultimately always be pricier than Melbourne on average
     
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  5. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    @euro73 agree with you on that mate. Personally I hope the gov stays incompetent too :) High chance of that imo.
     
    Last edited: 31st Jan, 2016
  6. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Better than a high chance. It's as close to a sure thing as you will ever find. There isnt a polly amongst them who is willing to take on debt to build infrastructure.

    Australia is one odd place...individuals are willing to leverage to their eyeballs to invest and speculate, but the minute a polly even suggests borrowing to invest - they are crucified. Literally, booted from office in 1 election cycle

    The Australian nation builder in me says they should be borrowing vast amounts to build nation building projects - massive population growth via inland city development, which would firstly require massive irrigation on the western side of the great dividing range/blue mountains. ie Bradfield plan . We have the rainfall, but we dont harvest much of it. Or a Very Fast Train between Melbourne, Shepparton, Albury , Canberra, Goulburn, Sydney, Newcastle, Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour, Brisbane... etc This would allow for 5 or 6 cities the size of canberra to grow, outside of just Sydney and Melbourne.. A special Economic Zone in the North, to grow beef maufacturing and food production into a huge national export industry - again, need water...


    They can borrow money at the moment below the rate of inflation... But there isnt a competent CFO type amongst any of them.. so you're right - it's a sure thing, and that's where the property owner in me thinks.."cha ching"

    Odd though, our personal attitude to debt and our political attitude to debt
     
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  7. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    That's the price we pay for democracy. A lower house that is headstrong and a Senate which opposes anything that makes sense, a profi or is unpalatable to their grass roots.
     
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  8. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    I hope it reaches dandenong though it may take a while - i have watched a few suburbs and i have been realizing a few attributes that can contribute to suburbs going more than 20-30% growth - high influx of migrants (well asian, mainland chinese especially, korean etc - as their culture involves eating food similar to their culture, being around familiar surroundings and shops), Schools that achieved good results and close to universities. This is on top of the standard other points like good infrastructure, close to transport freeways, close to shopping strips or shopping centres.

    the two suburbs in particular is preston (land sizes slowing bursting 1 mil mark - went to a chinese yum cha restaurant and couldn't believe how many chinese restaurants and groceries had openned up when i was last there which was a 1+ ago). Clayton - 1 year ago 600-900sqm lots weren't 1 milion now it is regularly selling for those prices. i see maidstone slowly becoming a next clayton or preston as it is similar to these 2 suburbs and slowly changing.
     
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  9. Chabs

    Chabs Well-Known Member

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    Historically infrastructure investment has given governments the best ROI out of major internal spendings. The majority of the money invested is local and so gets circulated before the infrastructure also benefits the people of the area. I think from memory infrastructure spend averages $2 returned in value for every $1 spent!!!!

    There's a lot on the to do list but it feels like the infrastructure spend in Sydney is happening too slow and too little too late. Its excellent that inflowing population is high, and hopefully if government wants to keep it that way (and let's face it, they should, as it is good for everyone assuming things are properly accommodated for) they start to get their **** together.

    I wonder what the future is looking like.. so far we have a not too big NW rail link and a SW airport as the two most major ones followed by upcoming motorway links around the western side of the city.

    There is so much potential; if only government could have a bit of foresight and make the most of what they have...
     
  10. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Westall and Springy has already moved big time. Anything even remotely subdivisible going nuts.

    Also brought up by @willister :
    What is up with Springvale (Vic)?



    N.Park also moving as a result.

    D.North near hospital is the next big bet.

    The Y-man
     
    Last edited: 24th Mar, 2017
  11. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Infrastructure is a long term investment - you can't turn it on and off at a whim and these projects take a long time to procure.

    Just a small snapshot of Sydney projects:
    Northwest metro, SE sydney light rail, westconnex, northconnex, Frenchs Forest hospital, Parramatta light rail, western metro to Olympic Precinct, SW metro, Badgers Creek Airport, The Northern Road improvements...

    There's $1b of infrastructure for Parramatta alone.
     
  12. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Sydney's infrastructure is actually ok if I compare going north-south and vice versa in eastern Melbourne. In eastern Melbourne (say going Bentleigh to Lower Plenty) it all seems to be all nearly normal streets with high amounts of traffic. It flows but for some reason it's typically one lane 60km/h streets with loads of traffic lights. It's not a long distance trip but it takes 50 minutes.
    Whereas in Sydney I'm sure we'd have a major road people would use for that route to cut that travel time to under 30 minutes.

    Note: I am no expert on Melbourne. And perhaps time of day comes into play. It just seemed odd to me that there wasn't a major road there. And, looking at the homes in the area while driving under 60km per hour was nice. The homes are nice. :)
     
  13. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    I just looked at the route of this - and realised you would have cut straight through some of Melbourne's most expensive suburbs

    East Bentleigh
    Oakleigh
    East Malvern
    Burwood/Glen Iris
    Surrey Hills
    Mont Albert
    Box Hill
    Doncaster
    Templestowe
    Lower Plenty

    The Y-man
     
  14. Chabs

    Chabs Well-Known Member

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    Incredible numbers and exciting for Parramatta and the nearby places! I just hope the roll out is effective and hopefully more infrastructure investments that work with our difficult geography

    Ideally more trains and trams as opposed to roads

    Also terrace housing is a great way to address affordability issues without worrying about apartment gluts scaring developers
     
  15. km1974

    km1974 Well-Known Member

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    Nobody who lives in Dandenong cares about proximity to the CBD. It's a whole different demographic. It's one of the only centers in the world that McDonalds has shut down, and guess what... There were two and both shut down. What has kept it afloat is the mass influx of immigrants, Africans and Afghans. Whilst many of the people who grew up in Dandenong (earlier immigrant families) still live there and haven't really ventured out.
     

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