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Understanding local price cycles

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Spoony, 29th Sep, 2016.

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  1. Spoony

    Spoony Member

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    As a newbie looking to get into property, I've been doing heaps of reading, research and browsing of this forum.

    Looking as specific areas/suburbs can one infer much from historic cycles when laid against other areas.
    Brisbane and greater area/cities

    By this I mean say area A peaked at $300k in 2008ish, very slightly retracted the following year or two then bottomed in 2011ish, but since as been recovering steady but is still below the previous peak. Where other areas still growing have exceeded or at least reached their previous peak.

    Looking at such data would one infer that the area's still yet to recover to former peaks are a bit more of a safe bet in terms of at least more immediate growth than others? Ie they are on a slower or out of cycle situation?

    Very general info I know, with 11ty other variables, but I did wonder if there was some logic to this thinking? Especially if say surrounding suburbs had cycled higher already perhaps.
     
  2. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    That sounded like "SeaChange-tology" adoption model which worked well for him. search on Goona for more details.
    I think Morayfield and Ipswich surrounding fit the part (a) but not sure about part (b) for future capital growth though, as I don't have much background info on the suburbs.
     
  3. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Hmm wonder what happened in Brisbane in 2011?
     
  4. Spoony

    Spoony Member

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    Interestingly you say that as the data I've been looking at realates some of the inner Ipswich suburbs such as East Ipswich, Boval etc etc which are still well off their previous peak but growing.

    I had search and read of SeaChange's thread and it seems his applying the same logic actively!


    It's not so much 2011, the comment on 2011 more related to the area's I mentioned above, but generally clicking around Brisbane most areas have had a dip, or at best a flat period. When this happened seems to vary. Ie closer to Brisbane CBD it was as early as 2009 in some areas (GFC related?) and it seems to have radiated from there in a delayed fashion. Most of these areas have had consistent growth after bottoming out, generally matching or exceeding the previous peak, some seemingly still growing, some topping out already perhaps. So relating to to area's that seem a bit behind on this cycle, they are in an up cycle but still below previous peak. Hence my thinking their is still short term gains to be perhaps be had in these sort of areas.

    Logically sound?
     
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  5. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    I dont know in particular which areas you are referring to , but I was hinting at the big event in Brisbane in 2011 which had a huge impact on real estate prices and Im sure still has a heavy influence on prices.
     
  6. Spoony

    Spoony Member

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    Sorry it totally skipped my mind what you were referencing. But yeah that! haha. While I live int he Brisbane region (completely unaffected area though), I was also overseas while all the drama was happening, so depsite being a local, missed much of the impact personally. However it ceratinly still have some influences in some areas too, and definitely requires one to do there diligence when looking at properties too
     
  7. Miss_D

    Miss_D Member

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    Brisbane floods jan 2011.... Lots of cheap flooded property on the market would of dropped averages significantly
     
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