Understanding Brisbane

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Noobieboy, 22nd Jan, 2019.

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  1. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I think this would also be true of Sydney and Melbourne?

    We don't set out to avoid certain areas, but simply have no need to venture too far. I'd guess most city dwellers would be the same?
     
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  2. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Sydney north shore definitely has a bit of culture of separation from west but I think that’s mainly because western Sydney is just too far away.
     
  3. kcbworth

    kcbworth Active Member

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    Brisbane, rough? Huh? Weird thing to say. Ok maybe on the trains you get 1 odd sod, and they stand out so much because they're so far removed from everyone else. Generally those are people from outside Brisbane e.g. Ipswich, Logan, or Caboolture

    Brisbane is more like the epitome of the nanny state where even the most innocuous little behaviours are treated like a crime against humanity. Infrastructure, social cohesion, safety, quality of life is generally much higher in Brisbane than Melb and Syd.

    It's far too cautious of a place though which makes the potential of exponential change very low and things are not moving as fast as they should
     
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  4. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    I have visited Brisbane and Gold Coast a couple of times. I have been to Northside (Bald Hills and Bracken Ridge). Walked around. I have been to almost every inner suburb.

    Brisbane is not that different. It is whiter. But didn’t strike me as much worse than Sydney or Melbourne. People are ok and are minding their own business.

    There is a bit more poverty in Brisbane. But that’s expected. But there is also much better infrastructure, planning and quality of life. People seem to be happier. At least much happier than Sydney.

    Have you visited Lakemba or the Druitt? There are horrible, horrible spots in Sydney that are much more violent and aggressive than what you would find anywhere else in Australia.

    Still ALL of Australia is much more peaceful and much safer than a lot of countries I lived in. And I tried a few.
     
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  5. QldKoolies

    QldKoolies Well-Known Member

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    I dont leave the freeway until I get to the Gold Coast or NSW. Thankfully they no longer check your VISA on the Gateway so I dont need to stop.
     
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  6. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I dont go to the Gold Coast*. When travelling to NSW and beyond, we head west, completely missing any traces of Logan. The closest we get to that Bogan Strip would be Beaudesert.

    * Unless it's to visit the very southern end
     
    Last edited: 8th Feb, 2019
  7. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Brisbane is cheaper at the moment because the banking / borrowing / lending changes occurred at the point where it would have normally moved up and those changes stopped it . It will go up at some point .

    Previous Sydney peaks was 2003 and then 2017 - 14 years

    Previous Brisbane peak was in 2009 .If you apply a 14 year cycle , that puts Brisbane peaking around 2023 if you go on that time frame . When labour get in they will fiddle with the system and that may even set it back further than that . I'm fine if it happens in the next 15 years ...

    I think if the lending changes hadn't occurred we'd be in boom territory in Brisbane , but we're not . In reality an external force ( GFC ) interrupted the previous Sydney cycle and probably made it longer than it normally would have so maybe the lending changes are performing a similar action here .

    We're long in Brisbane . We did sell two nice , but seriously cash flow neg properties in late 17 / early 18 to improve our cash flow situation , but I'm happy to hold our others in Brisbane in the expectation it will be the next Capital City to move . Time Frame , Don't know .

    Don't like Canberra due to the holding costs , we already hold in Tasmania which is still moving up ( but too late to buy in Hobart at this stage , and we already own in launceston which is and has moved up ) . Don't see Adelaide , Perth or Darwin moving up before Brisbane and given Sydney and Melb have peaked and are coming down , it'll be a long time before they move up significantly .

    Cliff
     
  8. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I'm interested in the comment above (and in another thread recently) that Brisbane peaked in 2008 or 2009. I'm curious because we tried to sell a house in 2012 that had last been appraised a couple of years earlier at $1.1 (maybe even $1.2m - but I think this was too high at the time - a bit of a "fishing for the listing" appraisal). In 2012 we knew the local market had dropped, but we had to sell and couldn't sell it for $980k, dropped to $950k and agent was pushing to drop to $900k. We found out later the agent was in financial difficulties and really needed our sale. Therefore, did not have our best interests at heart. But we took it off the market rather than have a listing showing $900k list price.

    About a year later we did sell for $980k. This is just our anecdotal local story, but the market did rise in our inner area after 2009.

    I'm guessing like all other "markets" there is no "one market" for Brisbane.
     
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  9. HenryF

    HenryF Well-Known Member

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    I sympathise with people's idea that Brisbane is very spread out.
    From Sydney to Penrith as the crow flies is just under 60kms.
    Melbourne extends out similar distances at its furthest.

    You look at a Satellite image though of Brisbane/Gold Coast/Sunshine Coast, it is almost suburbs the entire way from Tweeds Head to the Sunshine Coast=that is 180km (as the crow flies) of suburbs.
    Supply typically comes about from new dwellings being built (although people leaving, dying etc. can also do this along with other things), if I owned a Stockland or similar big estate building company boy do I have options of where to press council on a new estate in this city/cities=harder to control urban boundary.
    The other thing is the one council nature of much of here gives councils far greater scope over supply and demand within the inner and middle suburbs.

    Build some more mountains, rivers etc. to restrict land supply, concentrate your state's population more in the capital and then you can have many booms haha.

    But seriously, I don't doubt Brisbane's ability to boom I just think it has more going against it than most of Australia's cities.
     
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  10. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    I hope you are right.

    We don’t want all of you Mexicans crossing over the border and making housing unaffordable, causing traffic congestion, pollution, ... :eek:

    Let Sydney and Melbourne have all that staff...:D
     
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  11. HenryF

    HenryF Well-Known Member

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    You guys should, I dunno, build a wall maybe to keep us out?
     
  12. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Don’t tell anyone as it a secret but the detailed design is nearly complete and the land acquisition and construction will commence shortly :D.

    Don’t tell anyone because, if the word gets out, there will be a mass migration to Queensland and Brisbane will boom :).
     
  13. HenryF

    HenryF Well-Known Member

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    upload_2019-2-8_15-31-39.png
     
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  14. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    HaHa!!!

    That is why I don’t cross over the Brisbane River.

    Too many bogans north of the river :D.
     
  15. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Correct..might sound like a joke..but its not...there is so much riff raff in brisbane. The inner and mid is ok. Cross the river and head up north or even go deeper south and you will gladly pay whatever-the-price for the first flight out to sydney or Melbourne...one way, Non refundable flight.
     
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  16. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Sydney to brisbane is parallel in comparisson to from brisbane to wangaratta.
     
  17. Redom

    Redom Finance Strategist Business Plus Member

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    In general, I don't think Brisbane has a faster rising population than Sydney & Melbourne, certainly not in absolute terms. Hence they need to build far fewer dwellings to meet demand. Supply has been strong in the Brisbane market for a while. On the ground, it has long felt like a supply/demand equilibrium relative to other markets. I.e. the market clears, but there's enough supply available too.

    In future, it should do well:
    - Dollar has fallen significantly & QLD benefits from this
    - State of QLD budget is turned & offers scope for serious investment change.
    - QLD economy likely to perform well over coming years. I think they'll do well here relative to other states too.
    - Migration patterns
    - Unit supply soaked up
    - Mining investment drop off tapering now

    I think forum just jumped the gun re Brissy & assumed affordability will mean prices rise. Thats demand alone, without factoring in supply. I dont think they're wrong, just early. Nonetheless, property is a long term game, and the long term looks decent noting the above.
     
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  18. QldKoolies

    QldKoolies Well-Known Member

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    I dont totally agree nor disagree with this. I would add though for the benefit of those looking to invest in Brisbane to take note of changes in the ‘average’ land size and infil housing in the inner burbs. I say inner burbs deliberately, not inner suburbs. The suburban feel, wide streets, parks, close to cafe strips and rolling streets (the lucky neighbours with views) are becoming rarer each day as pre/interwar 800sqm splits filled it in. The band of post war 600sqm at the 7-10 mark are holding firm and are limited to replacements. The reduced supply at the 5 km radius will have its day. Because of the satelite business district nature of the brisbane plan discussed here before (that sits 10 km of the city) you mostly live in the perfect suburb that is the inner ring or you have to head that bit further out, inbetween is high density, unfriendly or commercial. It wont be long before the status of the family friendly home in the inner burbs is relatively rare and will ask a big premium from wealthy families and these are the markets doing very well in bris.
     
  19. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Understanding Bland Cuisine
     
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  20. Patrick Bateman

    Patrick Bateman Well-Known Member

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    Your supply argument might hold true for units however they aren’t making more land in the inner/middle ring so detached housing in those areas is likely to do well in the short to medium term .