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UDIA Urban Inteligence Report (WA)

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by theperthurbanist, 15th Aug, 2016.

  1. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    UDIA has just released its Urban Intelligence Report for the month. The reports look at key trends in the residential property market and broader economy in WA. I will try and keep this thread updated with the 'key points' of each report as they're released.
     
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  2. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    July Urban Intelligence Report:

    Key Points:
    Highlights from the July data include:

    Economy

    In WA the unemployment rate for June decreased 20 basis points from May and year-on-year (YOY) to sit at 5.6% (original data), with the seasonally-adjusted rate also decreasing a marginal 10 basis points to sit at 5.7%. The number of employed persons also declined 1.2% month-on-month (MOM) and 0.6% YOY to sit at 1.425m.

    Residential Property Market

    Finance commitments for first-homebuyers (FHB) in May increased 2.8% MOM, but fell 15.5% YOY to sit at 1,291 (monthly), with the average loan size decreasing 1.7% MOM to $314,500. Non-FHB finance commitments went up 7.5% MOM and 3.9% YOY to 5,522 (monthly), with the average loan size falling 3.1% to sit at $324,900.

    Residential Construction Sector

    The value of construction jobs in WA decreased 6.2% over the June quarter to sit at $1,567m. Of this total, new construction jobs fell 6.8% and alterations & additions decreased a marginal 0.3% from the March quarter.
     
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  3. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    And for a bit of context here were the June report highlights:
    June Urban Intelligence Report


    Key highlights include:

    • Lots sold in Greater Perth in the June-16 quarter decreased 4.2% from March. Lot sizes increased 2.8% to 391 sqm, the first increase since the March-15 quarter; and average prices decreased a marginal 2.6% from the last quarter to sit at $237,373.
    • The North-West corridor held the highest market share of Greater Perth sales at 28.8%, however it was the South-West corridor which increased the most in market share, from 16.4% in March-16 to 24.6% this quarter.
    • Indications of stabilisation in the Perth metropolitan region are emerging, with lots on the market increasing a marginal 1.9% in the June-16 quarter and lots to be released within 12 months averaging approximately 3,500 over the last three quarters.
     
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  4. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    August Urban Intelligence Report:

    Key Points:

    Highlights from the August data include:

    Economy

    • The August owner-occupier mortgage rates reduced due to the RBA’s cash rate cut of 25 basis points to 1.5%; with standard variable, discounted variable and 3-year fixed housing loans all decreasing 15 basis points over the month to sit at 5.25%, 4.45% and 4.10% respectively.
    Residential Property Market

    • WA dwelling finance commitments for investment housing in the June quarter increased 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to sit at $2,365.6 million. National commitments for the June quarter also increased 23.7% QoQ to sit at $37,063.6 million, following a 12.8% QoQ decrease in March.
    Residential Construction Sector

    • Greater Perth building approvals for houses in July (1,144) increased 11.7% month-on-month, sitting 8.2% below the ten-year monthly average of 1,246. Building approvals for dwellings excluding houses (673) increased 14.5% from the same time last year and sat slightly above the 24 month average of 645 per month.
     
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  5. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    Supply increasing, though I'm not seeing any drivers for increased demand. Somewhat concerning for prices?
     
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  6. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    October Urban Intelligence Report:

    Highlights from the September data include:


    • In August the WA unemployment rate decreased 20 basis points from July to sit at 6.2%, 30 basis points higher than at the same time last year. The number of employed persons in WA decreased 1.5% month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) to rest at 1.42 million.
    • In July, the number of WA first home buyer (FHB) dwelling finance commitments decreased 3.9% MoM to sit at 1,256; whilst the average loan size experienced a 1.3% monthly increase to sit at $317,700, 5.8% lower than the same time last year. Non-FHBs also had lower dwelling finance commitment numbers, down 7.2% MoM to 4,885, with the average loan size decreasing a more marginal 0.2% to $330,400.
    • In August the number of WA building approvals for houses increased 5.5% from July to sit at 1,431, 9.8% lower than the ten-year monthly average. In Greater Perth housing building approvals increased 6.0% MoM to 1,222. Building approvals for dwellings excluding houses sat at 333 for WA, 29.5% below the ten year average (472); and 312 for Greater Perth, 24.3% below the ten year average (412).
     
  7. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    The September edition of the UDIA WA Urban Development Index is now available.

    Key highlights include:

    • Greater Perth recorded an increase of 6.6% in land sales activity over the September 2016 quarter, despite continued soft market conditions. However, this figure remains 11.5% lower than the same quarter last year.
    • The average lot size in Greater Perth fell 2.0% to 384 sqm, 4.5% lower than the same time last year.
    • Whilst average lot prices in Greater Perth have decreased 5.1% since the same time 12 months ago to sit at $226,113; rates per square metre have fallen a marginal 0.2% to $595 per sqm.
    • Future lot production increased 7.5% following three quarters of relatively stable lower figures, but remains 24.6% lower than in the September 2015 quarter.
     
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  8. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    Interesting to see per square meter lot price rates remaining relatively stable.
     
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  9. Shankiedoodle

    Shankiedoodle Well-Known Member

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    so prices aren't shrinking but lots are?
     
  10. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    prices are coming down, but not as fast as lot sizes.

    a 250sqm lot might be $195k for example, but a 450sqm lot might be $279k.

    sqm rates are always higher for smaller lots.
     
  11. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    UDIA's economic and residential property market update for November is now available.

    Key Points:
    Highlights from the November data include:

    • In October the WA unemployment rate increased 10 basis points (bps) month-on-month (MoM) to sit at 6.1%, 20 bps higher than the same time last year. The number of employed persons increased a marginal 0.8% MoM and decreased 1.6% year-on-year (YoY) to 1.33 million, with the state participation rate increasing 50 bps from last month to 66.9% (-182 bps YoY), 260 bps higher than the national rate of 64.3%.
    • WA first home buyer (FHB) dwelling finance commitments in September decreased 2.1% to 1,239, 15.9% lower than the same time last year. The FHB average loan size also decreased 5.6% YoY to sit at $320,800. Non-FHB dwelling finance commitments decreased 8.0% MoM to sit at 4,742, 8.3% lower than 12 months ago. The average loan size for non-FHBs fell 1.0% YoY to $342,500.
    • In October First Home Owner Grants (FHOG) paid for new dwellings increased 0.4% month-on-month, but fell 15.6% year-on-year. Grant applications decreased 6.8% from September and were 16.6% lower than the same time last year. In the 12 months to October FHOGs for new dwellings have: decreased 3.0% for applications to 7,695, following a peak for the same time period in Oct-14 (8,789); and fallen 9.7% for grants paid to 8,092, following a record high for the same time period in Oct-15 (8,965).
     
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  12. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    aaaaand not much good news there.
     
  13. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    UDIA's economic and residential property market update for December, is now available.

    Key Points:
    • In November the WA unemployment rate decreased ten basis points (bps) month-on-month (MoM) to sit at 6.0%, slightly higher than the national rate of 5.4% and fifty bps higher than the same time last year. The total number of employed persons in the state increased 0.8% MoM to 1.34 million, 0.3% lower than the same time last year; with the state participation rate rising 40 bps MoM and falling 50 basis points year-on-year (YoY) to sit at 67.3%.
    • In October WA first home buyer (FHB) dwelling finance new commitments decreased 2.7% MoM to 1,206; with the average loan size increasing 0.6% to sit at $322,800. Non-FHB dwelling finance commitments also decreased a marginal 0.8% MoM to 4,706; with the average loan size falling 1.2% MoM to $338,500.
    • The total value of WA residential building jobs for November increased 27.9% MoM and 12.2% YoY to sit at $646.1 million. Of this total: building jobs for new construction rose 29.9% MoM and 13.6% YoY to $581.4 million; and building jobs for alterations and additions (including conversions) increased 12.2% MoM and 0.4% YoY to $64.7 million.
     
  14. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    That last point is an interesting one. Has anyone else seen/heard signs that the residential building sector might be warming up again? (for my part, I'd prefer that it didn't as I'm looking to build soon and I'd like to do so in a hungry market!)
     
  15. Ross Forrester

    Ross Forrester Well-Known Member Business Member

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    I have been told that the FHB grant has done something.

    But that is only from 2 new home sales guys and I personally think they are eternal optimists.

    I think a lot of guys in construction are hungry. Do not worry about being crowded out.
     
  16. DaveyB

    DaveyB Active Member

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    Surely it'd be a lag effect from sites bought in more prosperous times? Thanks for posting these PU, isn't the UE rate quoted around 6.9% elsewhere?