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UDIA Urban Inteligence Report (WA)

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by theperthurbanist, 15th Aug, 2016.

  1. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    UDIA has just released its Urban Intelligence Report for the month. The reports look at key trends in the residential property market and broader economy in WA. I will try and keep this thread updated with the 'key points' of each report as they're released.
     
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  2. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    July Urban Intelligence Report:

    Key Points:
    Highlights from the July data include:

    Economy

    In WA the unemployment rate for June decreased 20 basis points from May and year-on-year (YOY) to sit at 5.6% (original data), with the seasonally-adjusted rate also decreasing a marginal 10 basis points to sit at 5.7%. The number of employed persons also declined 1.2% month-on-month (MOM) and 0.6% YOY to sit at 1.425m.

    Residential Property Market

    Finance commitments for first-homebuyers (FHB) in May increased 2.8% MOM, but fell 15.5% YOY to sit at 1,291 (monthly), with the average loan size decreasing 1.7% MOM to $314,500. Non-FHB finance commitments went up 7.5% MOM and 3.9% YOY to 5,522 (monthly), with the average loan size falling 3.1% to sit at $324,900.

    Residential Construction Sector

    The value of construction jobs in WA decreased 6.2% over the June quarter to sit at $1,567m. Of this total, new construction jobs fell 6.8% and alterations & additions decreased a marginal 0.3% from the March quarter.
     
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  3. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    And for a bit of context here were the June report highlights:
    June Urban Intelligence Report


    Key highlights include:

    • Lots sold in Greater Perth in the June-16 quarter decreased 4.2% from March. Lot sizes increased 2.8% to 391 sqm, the first increase since the March-15 quarter; and average prices decreased a marginal 2.6% from the last quarter to sit at $237,373.
    • The North-West corridor held the highest market share of Greater Perth sales at 28.8%, however it was the South-West corridor which increased the most in market share, from 16.4% in March-16 to 24.6% this quarter.
    • Indications of stabilisation in the Perth metropolitan region are emerging, with lots on the market increasing a marginal 1.9% in the June-16 quarter and lots to be released within 12 months averaging approximately 3,500 over the last three quarters.
     
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  4. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    August Urban Intelligence Report:

    Key Points:

    Highlights from the August data include:

    Economy

    • The August owner-occupier mortgage rates reduced due to the RBA’s cash rate cut of 25 basis points to 1.5%; with standard variable, discounted variable and 3-year fixed housing loans all decreasing 15 basis points over the month to sit at 5.25%, 4.45% and 4.10% respectively.
    Residential Property Market

    • WA dwelling finance commitments for investment housing in the June quarter increased 2.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to sit at $2,365.6 million. National commitments for the June quarter also increased 23.7% QoQ to sit at $37,063.6 million, following a 12.8% QoQ decrease in March.
    Residential Construction Sector

    • Greater Perth building approvals for houses in July (1,144) increased 11.7% month-on-month, sitting 8.2% below the ten-year monthly average of 1,246. Building approvals for dwellings excluding houses (673) increased 14.5% from the same time last year and sat slightly above the 24 month average of 645 per month.
     
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  5. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    Supply increasing, though I'm not seeing any drivers for increased demand. Somewhat concerning for prices?
     
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  6. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    October Urban Intelligence Report:

    Highlights from the September data include:


    • In August the WA unemployment rate decreased 20 basis points from July to sit at 6.2%, 30 basis points higher than at the same time last year. The number of employed persons in WA decreased 1.5% month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) to rest at 1.42 million.
    • In July, the number of WA first home buyer (FHB) dwelling finance commitments decreased 3.9% MoM to sit at 1,256; whilst the average loan size experienced a 1.3% monthly increase to sit at $317,700, 5.8% lower than the same time last year. Non-FHBs also had lower dwelling finance commitment numbers, down 7.2% MoM to 4,885, with the average loan size decreasing a more marginal 0.2% to $330,400.
    • In August the number of WA building approvals for houses increased 5.5% from July to sit at 1,431, 9.8% lower than the ten-year monthly average. In Greater Perth housing building approvals increased 6.0% MoM to 1,222. Building approvals for dwellings excluding houses sat at 333 for WA, 29.5% below the ten year average (472); and 312 for Greater Perth, 24.3% below the ten year average (412).
     
  7. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    The September edition of the UDIA WA Urban Development Index is now available.

    Key highlights include:

    • Greater Perth recorded an increase of 6.6% in land sales activity over the September 2016 quarter, despite continued soft market conditions. However, this figure remains 11.5% lower than the same quarter last year.
    • The average lot size in Greater Perth fell 2.0% to 384 sqm, 4.5% lower than the same time last year.
    • Whilst average lot prices in Greater Perth have decreased 5.1% since the same time 12 months ago to sit at $226,113; rates per square metre have fallen a marginal 0.2% to $595 per sqm.
    • Future lot production increased 7.5% following three quarters of relatively stable lower figures, but remains 24.6% lower than in the September 2015 quarter.
     
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  8. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    Interesting to see per square meter lot price rates remaining relatively stable.
     
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  9. Shankiedoodle

    Shankiedoodle Well-Known Member

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    so prices aren't shrinking but lots are?
     
  10. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    prices are coming down, but not as fast as lot sizes.

    a 250sqm lot might be $195k for example, but a 450sqm lot might be $279k.

    sqm rates are always higher for smaller lots.
     
  11. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    UDIA's economic and residential property market update for November is now available.

    Key Points:
    Highlights from the November data include:

    • In October the WA unemployment rate increased 10 basis points (bps) month-on-month (MoM) to sit at 6.1%, 20 bps higher than the same time last year. The number of employed persons increased a marginal 0.8% MoM and decreased 1.6% year-on-year (YoY) to 1.33 million, with the state participation rate increasing 50 bps from last month to 66.9% (-182 bps YoY), 260 bps higher than the national rate of 64.3%.
    • WA first home buyer (FHB) dwelling finance commitments in September decreased 2.1% to 1,239, 15.9% lower than the same time last year. The FHB average loan size also decreased 5.6% YoY to sit at $320,800. Non-FHB dwelling finance commitments decreased 8.0% MoM to sit at 4,742, 8.3% lower than 12 months ago. The average loan size for non-FHBs fell 1.0% YoY to $342,500.
    • In October First Home Owner Grants (FHOG) paid for new dwellings increased 0.4% month-on-month, but fell 15.6% year-on-year. Grant applications decreased 6.8% from September and were 16.6% lower than the same time last year. In the 12 months to October FHOGs for new dwellings have: decreased 3.0% for applications to 7,695, following a peak for the same time period in Oct-14 (8,789); and fallen 9.7% for grants paid to 8,092, following a record high for the same time period in Oct-15 (8,965).
     
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  12. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    aaaaand not much good news there.
     
  13. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    UDIA's economic and residential property market update for December, is now available.

    Key Points:
    • In November the WA unemployment rate decreased ten basis points (bps) month-on-month (MoM) to sit at 6.0%, slightly higher than the national rate of 5.4% and fifty bps higher than the same time last year. The total number of employed persons in the state increased 0.8% MoM to 1.34 million, 0.3% lower than the same time last year; with the state participation rate rising 40 bps MoM and falling 50 basis points year-on-year (YoY) to sit at 67.3%.
    • In October WA first home buyer (FHB) dwelling finance new commitments decreased 2.7% MoM to 1,206; with the average loan size increasing 0.6% to sit at $322,800. Non-FHB dwelling finance commitments also decreased a marginal 0.8% MoM to 4,706; with the average loan size falling 1.2% MoM to $338,500.
    • The total value of WA residential building jobs for November increased 27.9% MoM and 12.2% YoY to sit at $646.1 million. Of this total: building jobs for new construction rose 29.9% MoM and 13.6% YoY to $581.4 million; and building jobs for alterations and additions (including conversions) increased 12.2% MoM and 0.4% YoY to $64.7 million.
     
  14. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    That last point is an interesting one. Has anyone else seen/heard signs that the residential building sector might be warming up again? (for my part, I'd prefer that it didn't as I'm looking to build soon and I'd like to do so in a hungry market!)
     
  15. Ross Forrester

    Ross Forrester Well-Known Member Business Member

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    I have been told that the FHB grant has done something.

    But that is only from 2 new home sales guys and I personally think they are eternal optimists.

    I think a lot of guys in construction are hungry. Do not worry about being crowded out.
     
  16. DaveyB

    DaveyB Well-Known Member

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    Surely it'd be a lag effect from sites bought in more prosperous times? Thanks for posting these PU, isn't the UE rate quoted around 6.9% elsewhere?
     
  17. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    The January 2017 edition of the UDIA WA Urban Development Index is now available.

    Key highlights include:


    • In December the WA unemployment rate increased 40 basis points (bps) to sit at 6.4%, 40bps higher than in December 2015. The total number of employed persons increased 0.4% to 1.35 million, a fall of 1.5% year-on-year (YoY). The state participation rate increased 50bps to sit at 67.8%, down 140bps YoY and 60bps higher than the national rate of 65.2%.
    • In November, new finance commitments for owner-occupier housing increased 8.3% month-on-month (MoM) to sit at 6,401, 5.9% lower YoY and making up 10.7% of the national total (59,936). Of this total: commitments for the construction of dwellings increased 17.0% MoM and fell 14.5% YoY to 1,085; commitments for the purchase of new dwellings rose 37.9% MoM and 37.9% YoY to 251; and commitments for the purchase of established dwellings increased 5.5% MoM and fell 4.9% YoY to 5,065.
    • The value of total residential building jobs in the December quarter decreased 5.2% from the previous quarter to $1.63 billion, a decrease of 10.6% from December-15, but at a slower rate of decline. Of this total: building jobs for new construction decreased 7.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 11.2% YoY to $1.48 billion; and building jobs for alterations and additions (including conversions) increased 19.8% QoQ, but fell 5.3% YoY to $158.7 million.
     
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  18. Aaron Sice

    Aaron Sice Well-Known Member

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    6.4% UE is still excellent all things considering - that's effectively a real 2.2% unemployment rate.

    I suspect a significant minority (>15%) of that employment is made up of the 'underemployed' though.

    4.2% of the population are pretty much unemployable, period. So when WA had a 4.2% unemployment rate - that was full employment.

    When did the economy become so fragile that 2% makes such an impact? If my costs over-run by 2% on a development project, it's still profitable and everyone settles and the tax man gets his GST and....
     
  19. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    UDIA's economic and residential property market update for February is now available.

    Highlights from the February data include:
    • In January the WA unemployment rate increased 40 basis points (bps) to 6.8% month-on-month (MoM), 60bps higher than the same time last year and 70bps above the national rate. The number of employed persons fell 0.7% MoM to 1.34 million, down 0.2% year-on-year (YoY). The state participation rate also decreased 30bps to sit at 67.5%, 40bps down on last year and 352bps higher than the national rate of 64.0%.
    • In December the number of dwellings financed for first home buyers (FHB) decreased 12.6% MoM to 1,214, 12.1% lower than the same time the year before. The average FHB loan size fell 0.9% MoM and 3.2% YoY to sit at $318,700. For non-FHB, the number of dwellings financed also fell 8.2% MoM to 4,599, 16.4% lower than in Dec-15. The average non-FHB loan size increased 1.5% MoM and 2.4% YoY to $347,600.
    • In January building approvals data reflected the compounding effects of a slowing market and the Christmas/New Year period with WA building approvals for houses falling 8.5% MoM and 11.5% YoY to 972. Approvals for dwellings other than houses decreased 22.9% MoM and 35.4% YoY to 383. Greater Perth building approvals also fell with houses down 12.2% MoM and 15.6% YoY to 792; whilst dwellings other than houses decreased 21.9% MoM and 33.6% YoY to 379.
     
  20. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    UDIA's economic and residential property market update for April is now available. Highlights from the April data include:
    • In March the unemployment rate for WA increased 20 basis points (bps) to 6.9% (original, seasonally adjusted is 6.5%), 100 bps above the rate at same time last year (5.9%) and 70 bps higher than the national rate. The number of employed persons remained steady at 1.35 million, 0.6% lower than in March 2016. The state participation rate also remained steady at 68%, 40 bps lower year-on-year (YoY) and 293 bps higher than the national rate of 65.1%.
    • In February WA new owner-occupier finance commitments increased 7.4% month-on-month (MoM) and fell 15.4% year-on-year (YoY) to 5,341. Of this total: commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 5.0% MoM and fell 18.0% YoY to 814; commitments for the purchase of new dwellings increased 53.1% MoM and 32.2% YoY to 300; and commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 5.6% MoM and decreased 17.0% YoY to 4,227.
    • In March WA building approvals for houses increased 21.3% month-on-month (MoM) and 4.5% YoY to 1,355; whist building approvals for dwellings (excluding houses) decreased 32.3% MoM and 33.5% YoY to 292. In Greater Perth approvals for houses rose 19.7% MoM and 10.3% YoY to 1,138; whilst those for dwellings (excluding houses) fell 33.8% MoM and 35.8% YoY to 280.
     
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