U-S rate rise next week...

That would be great. It's number one on my wish list.

 

The interesting part will be if the Fed will NOT raise rates tomorrow. This can happen and it is not priced in the markets. There will be some volatility if that happens.

 

I have absolutely no idea what will happen but some people will have bigger fish to fry...

Why the current credit crisis might be 35 times worse than you thought

 

Watch this space.

Thursday morning Australian time.

 

And this might be the best time to FIX your interest rates!!!

 

Here you go
Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era; Signals 4 Quarter-Point 2016 Increases

With Live analysis: Markets Live: We have lift-off | smh.com.au

And the AUD reaction
AUD to USD Exchange Rate

It's a dog's breakfast at the foreign exchange markets at the moment. The movements look like a seismograph in a major earthquake.

 

Clever traders don't trade during these turbulent times. There is nothing to gain there except a headache.

 

Nothing like a photo finish,all the banks are green ,but the miners maybe in for some sit back and watch the fireworks ..

 

Yep year end window dressing as usual. Fed is now expecting to increase rates by 1% by end of 2016. Expect the banks to announce a rate rise just before christmas if not in the new year..

Miners with lotsa debt are going to be hit even harder now. Usd now going up means commodity prices down reflexively. Less money to pay back more expensive installments..

 

Rates have risen, the markets haven't crashed, and the end of the world doesn't appear to be nigh.

A lot of fuss about nothing?

 

People already knew it's gonna happen.

The US Fed governors have been saying it for months.

It would have been worse if they did NOT cut, because it means the Fed has no confidence in the American economy despite the strong economic data coming out.

 

But are they supposed to crash straight after the interest rates rise? Wont it take a little while to see something?

 

buy the rumour sell the fact

 

Market goes up due to the confidence boost.

Currency will trend with the increase

 

Well, the US currency, that is.

 

Yep, in other words AU goes down.

RBA gets happy, everybody parties just in time for Christmas.

 

If the RBA is happy with the AUD then there's no need to cut rates more!

And if it goes too low and causes inflation, they will have to raise rates next!

 

True.

Above is a graph which shows when the FED has raised rates from the cyclical low (marked with a circle) and when the next recession occurred.The rate rise doesn't coincide with a recession (nor in Australia for that fact as we basically follow the US). On average it takes 3-4 years. This would bring us to a recession in 2019.

 

I think we will see recession in Australia much earlier than 2019, cracks are already forming.

I hope I am wrong, but it's not looking too good at the moment.

MTR

 

I often wonder how the USA can arrive at this bottom line of improved figures when...

*War budget - $1 trill per year?
*Manufacturing and exports from that - down the gurgler same as AUS (decreasing jobs and revenues down)
*Imports on the increase (same as AUS) balance of trade bad.

Not to mention their Space budget.

And so on.