Transport Revolution (TaaS) Could Increase Expenditure on Housing

How many cars does your household own? What if I told you that a couple of decades down the track it would be far more likely that a household owns none...

I came across this video last night (highly recommended watch or alternatively try this report: https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...30c5/1494888038959/RethinkX+Report_051517.pdf):



I have long believed this is the direction transport is heading, but have never seen it this well explained.

The basic premise is that a converging decrease in various technology costs will see TaaS (Transport as a Service) become the norm for households. Rather than owning a car, you will simply signal an AEV (Autonomous Electric Vehicle) to pick you up. With an increase in the utilisation of individual cars (video suggests 10x from current 4%, parked 96% of the time, to 40%) and reduction in running costs (of energy and maintenance, video suggests 18 moving parts in an AEV vs 2000+ in an internal combustion engine), we could see household expenditure on transportation fall dramatically over the next 10-15 years.

Transport is a major household expenditure:



If we saw this household cost decrease by 1/3, perhaps even more, that frees up funds to use elsewhere. I would personally like to see it avoided (as already think we have expensive housing), but think there is a very real possibility that housing costs suck up this free cash flow (i.e. people will have more to spend on housing, prices will rise).

What do you think?

 

An interesting perspective. I think for SINK and DINK demo's, TaaS is a no brainer. Once kids are in the mix I think families will continue to retain at least one car. Kids damage cars and kids need frequent trips. Constantly booking AEVs might get frustrating especially if you get "no cars available with installed childseat for another 90 minutes" type notifications; families with kids are less likely to tolerate that.

But SINKS and DINKS are the ones who will benefit most. And they are the ones saving up house deposits and such.

 

This cant happen quick enough, looking forward to the day i can get rid of my car.

As related i just posted in adelaide bizz thread on french aev manufacturer setting up shop in sa:

French driverless auto company to manufacture in Adelaide - InDaily

 

I definitely agree families will be slower adopters, but potentially the buses that @ollidrac nosaj could carry a baby seat in every vehicle. Also, if the demand was literally so high that a 90 minute wait was required for a vehicle with a baby seat, then why would the market not meet the demand? An AEV would be less convenient in some ways (for families or single parents), but more convenient in others, e.g. a single mother can jump into the car with their young child and not have to worry about their child being unattended to throughout the trip.

 

The economics of it will make it so much more viable to use aev fleet over personal vehicles. It would also get to the point of being heavily subsidised or maybe even free to travel via this mode in many cases. For example if you owned a large place of business, say like a hotel/casino/shopping center etc, what better way to get customers through the door by offering such a service. Not to mention plastering the vehicles with advertising on the outside and then bombarding you on the inside via multimedia.

 

Ohh just had another thought, fast food drive through that swipes x amount off your aev fare when you order.

 

My tenants would rather buy a new flash car every few years than waste money on a house. People like to spend as much as they can (borrow) on cars. Most are happy to lose more on car depreciation each year than what they would need for house payments. They could already save on transport cost, a $1-3000 car would be very adequate for them and could last more than 5 years. But they want to spend $60,000 then a **** load to insure, wash and service it .

 

I'll file the prediction with the paperless office, shorter working week, high speed NBN fibre to the premises......

 

Yep for sure, there will still be a huge market for credited up bogans. Those that still want there own personal brand X vehicle with sub woofers, bling rims, and the extra 100 watts of power option, because they need to get there a little quicker than everyone else.

 

I'll do the same with this post, then repost it from the media center of my aev in a couple of years.

 

I think it is a control thing. How can we trust a driverless vehicle to operate safely and competently. How often do traffic lights and train signalling services malfunction, like on the Redcliffe line? When I own my own vehicle, I know it will be available at MY convenience exactly when I want it, unlike buses, taxis and trains.

 

EV's will be becoming really cheap in the near future, if the launch from Tesla is to be believed.

35k for an EV that can go 350km approx. (USD I presume)

 

My car goes 350 km on $60 of juice.

 

an EV will do that on $6.

Also, the only real running costs you will have apart from electricity will be tyres.

 

Totally understand your point of view and this would be the largest stumbling block. But in all reality it is only a psychological one. Is AI any less reliable or trustworthy than a faliable human? Eg incidents or death caused by drunk/drug driving, texting, inattention, inexperience, speeding or just plain stupidity.

Yes definetly, there will still be a market for those wanting a personal aev or even just ev etc.

But this is going to be driven purely by economics. As an example who is going to want or compete on the logistics side of there business of having to pay for a driver once the technology/ legislative/ insurance dynamics of this are worked out.

There is currently massive investment/research in this field, and the race is on to bring it to market, when not if!

 

Pittsburgh's self-driving car boom means $200,000 pay packages for robotics grads

Samsung launches $300M autonomous driving fund, puts $90M into TTTech

Alphabet is reportedly considering investing $1 billion in Lyft

GM's Self-Driving Car Effort Is Pedal to the Metal Toward a Major Milestone

Feds in sync with industry on autonomous cars

 

Still watching the video, nice fine.

Something that I think will be interesting to keep an eye on, is how improvements in automated vehicles/TaaS will lead to changes in reducing congestion, and more continous flowing traffic, potentially at higher speeds. This would mean that the 45 minute commute catchment will actually reach much further distances than before. Therefore, potentially living in Torquay might be only a 45 minute drive to the city.

 

Great video and I'm all over this technology for work. Can absolutely vouch for the timelines indiciated (2020-2022).

I'll be building my new PPOR around that time and will be kitted out with all the fun tech stuff.

 

Are you operating out of SA?

 

No Melbourne