Trading Trading AFI and STW as a pair

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by Hodor, 13th Apr, 2017.

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  1. Hodor

    Hodor Well-Known Member

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    I set out to see how trading AFI and STW as a pair would have turned out.
    Simple rule was when the premium reached 9% end of month AFI would be sold and STW purchased, when the discount reach 5% end of month STW would be sold and AFI purchased. The aim was to have moderate/low turnover while taking advantage of clear arbitrage opportunities.
    Brokerage was $20 for all trades.

    Note some clear problems/limitations.
    The example below ignores dividends (hopefully near a wash as similar constituents) and taxes.
    I didn't download all NTA history from the ASX so trades might not be timed perfectly per the rules.
    NTA isn't published on the day at the end of month, so you would be calculating this yourself in order to time the trade.
    Some prices were a couple of days out as the data source wasn't perfect/complete.
    This isn't a new idea, if it was so easy then it would be more popular
    The time frame is only ~10 years (a lost decade for Australia) and past performance isn't...

    Anyway I thought it was interesting so I might as well share and maybe learn something from more informed comments.

    31/7/2007
    AFI $5.97 (2.4% premium)
    STW $57.00

    Buy 175 Shares of STW ($5 cash left)

    31/3/2008
    AFI $4.91 (5.39% discount)
    STW $52.23

    Sell 175 STW for net $9120.75
    Buy 1854 AFI ($2.61 cash left)

    31/1/2009
    AFI $4.00 (10.5% premium)
    STW $32.91

    Sell 1854 AFI for net $7,396.00
    Buy 224 STW ($6.77 cash left)

    30/4/2011
    AFI $4.63 (6.84% discount)
    STW $45.01

    Sell 224 STW for net $10,062.24
    Buy 2170 AFI ($1.91 cash left)

    31/12/2012
    AFI $5.41 (9.74% premium)
    STW $43.4

    Sell 2170 AFI for net $11,719.70
    Buy 269 STW ($27.01 cash left)

    31/3/2017
    AFI $5.77 (3.35% discount)
    STW $55.03

    269 STW held = $14,803.07

    Buy and Hold
    175 STW = $9630.25
    1671 AFI = $9641.67
     
  2. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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  3. Kat

    Kat Well-Known Member

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    I imagine you've thought of this already, but another consideration would be capital gains tax.