Forex Trader's Corner - FX, Futures, Indexes, Commodities

Anyone here flip cars?

 

Rebirth?

 

Another positive month trading the crazy forex.
Finished Nov at 3.5% accross 3 accounts. Across 3 accts that's a little over 5k for Nov, the big goal is getting close...unless the zombie apocalypse happens and they all get wiped out.
Anything is possible in the financial markets.

Below is the growth chart for the Oanda acct, 31.29% since April. Little by little it has been going up. 2.73% (1835) for the month with a drawdown of 1%. I think I'm running this account a bit more conservatively because I know I'll be posting it here, though I'm happy with the results so far and increased the funds.

One of the issues is getting used to seeing bigger drawdowns, which as a percentage are small but a lot bigger as a number.
Of course i expect a drawdown or loss at anytime where I just get it way wrong and loose 5, 10% or more. That's the game.

Currently long EUR/CHF, small long EUR/GPB and a 1% drawdown.


In order not to get distracted from my main strategy I started a new account where i could trade a little more crazy and aptly named it Crash'n'Burn. Same strategy across more pairs with more trades and higher DD. It also doubles up as a stress test and hopefuly an early indicator markets changing their charactaristics and my current system no longer working.

The ASX200 closed below the 200 daily EMA, to some that could be a warning sign and trigger some selling. My signal on the daily chart is a short though I'm not trading it

 

UK just raise rates, it was expected but the market still jolted.
I played the G/J as the highest jump.


As interest rates start rising the mean reversion systems may have a hard time and high risk countertrend RSI type traders (did well for the last few years) may go bust.
Trend/breakout systems may be the go for the next few years.

 

My style of "fundamental" trading on the AUDNZD may be over...
It's a real simple concept based on the value of the nzd cannot be the same as aud and that's why historically parity is a rarerity.

And so everytime it gets close to parity I buy and keep buying on the way down. Just like a reserve bank would, and sell as it goes back up.
I have no regard for rules in the books, reserve banks make billions doing this. The RBA made billions buying aud under 60cents usd.
As always there's a chance the markets go crazy, just as equities do and overshoot the swings and thus risk needs to be minimized by trading small with long time frames of days or weeks.
Some indicators and even basic TA can help with entries and exits, though patience is the main used indicator.

Added a pic from a previous post showing some trades.

Seems simple but not always easy....

 

Stock markets tumble once again making the yen stronger.
Not sure if these will close tonight, but as I type they're sinking like a rock in a deep dam..




Already at 2.6% total return for the month and I'm trading lighter than I should so these trades may add 0.4% in gain and bring my month to 3%.
May not seem much in the crazy world of forex but I'm pretty chuffed about it and live to see another month.

 

Well done mate.

 

Closed CADJPY and USDJPY
2.8% for the month and a small GPBUSD long with 30pip stop.


how your USDJPY going @Sackie?

 

I'm still in usdjpy short.

I made a boo boo with eur/usd. Had no idea how I had a position on there...by accident luckily I realised after 20 mins and closed the position with only $800 loss...could have been much worse.

 

I'm expecting a retrace, no idea how much but it would need to get to >128 for me to buy a ticket for another ride.

 

I'm testing a trend following system with breakout and macd as price entry though I use some fundamentals to time entries. And since EU is rasining rates I'm expecting a bit of a run.
Trend trading is a lot harder than people make out, and whipsaws drain the account fast.
I haven't used a demo account for 20 yrs, unless there's money on the table the phsycology is not there either.
The line is just a macd in line format.

 

Looks like you already can't lose on the trade as SL passed entry point. agree trend trading is harder than it looks. I find the most challenging part is knowing how hard to press it before exiting. Sl movement is tricky...

Yeah I hate testing things on demo for same reason you mentioned, the psychology part just isn't there. I can do brilliant on trying something on demo, then when you get to live trading...magically...everything changes lol

I only use live trading now.

 

Took profits on a nice run up USDJPY.
I'm not so sure FED will raise rates again as most people are, so looking for a short.

Still have a small long eurusd, audusd, gpdcad and usdchf and looking for a swing and entry on gpbusd.
About +40% 12 month rolling so far and 12% ytd.

 

Very nice returns mate. And consistent!

Time to open your trading mentoring business

 

Thanks!

Noooooo.... me, one of those .
Markets change as well, I don't trade like i used to. Changed after the 90s, then 00s and just before the GFC stopped trading for a few years and put all funs into RE. Then changed method again.
And they are changing now again as interest rates re adjust.
I see some carry trade opportunites as swiss franc seems way overvalued. There's no sensical world imo with a swiss franc where everything is way over priced has the same value as the USD, or 70 aud cents and rates of -0.75%.
That need to be balanced with "Markets can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent".
CHR seems to be like a giant exchange where the big bux white wash assets, which in times like current can be useful to many.
Just like the crypto exchanges do with btc.

 

And back on the usdjpy horse again for another ride. Giddyup!

 

On the H1 looks good.

 

Yes, it's just gone vertical so gotta get in on the 1hr breakout then hope for the macd cross, then 2hr...4hr...etc
Everything else is pointing to strong uptrend, but if jobless data cames out bad in 7 mins it could drop fast.
And I'm thinking the upside is limited if it doesn't.

 

Long gbp/jpy. Long hold on monthly TF but executed on daily.