QLD Townsville vs Brisbane North (with $400k)

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by jacger, 17th May, 2017.

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  1. jacger

    jacger New Member

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    Firstly, thank you for the excellent education provided on this forum. It brought about my first IP purchase in Brisbane (Bray Park) end 2015.

    I’m now considering a 2nd IP. Budget $400k. Considering current market trends I’m contemplating Townsville as a possible investment area. Townsville has had negative sentiments till end 2016, but it seems there is now some light in the tunnel with all the proposed infrastructure developments, Adani Mine, solar farms, army camps etc. (e.g. Townsville property market on the up - realestate.com.au , Tuned in investors turning towards Townsville ).

    Is Townsville now coming out of the bottom of the property cycle? If so, it might be a good time to get in to capitalise potential capital gains and higher yields.

    I’m torn between investing in Townsville or Brisbane North (e.g. Lawton, Kallangur, Redcliff, Taigum).

    I’m not familiar with Townsville at all and will appreciate guidance from the more astute investors whether Townville is a good option at this time to be part of a long term (10-15yr) hold strategy.
     
  2. Yellowfin1

    Yellowfin1 Active Member

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    Firstly - we have no property in Townsville no have ever invested here. Family ties in Bris but others can comment there.

    Have lived in Tville for 4 years some time ago. Visited late last year with family.

    Impressions:

    - amazing value compared to my FNQ benchmark Cairns IMO - saw a nice unit on The Strand going for in the $400s - part of a unit block of 8 if I recall with 2 car parks. You won't get that in Cairns on the Esplanade, not even close.
    - lovely $M+ homes on Castle Hill (Nth Ward) area.
    - old hospital in Nth Ward still being developed and an eyesore
    - hit hard by mining slowdown as did Mackay in 2012-13 - it shows
    - MANY vacancies in the CBD commercial district (Flinders St and surrounds) - understand Stockland Tville (Aitkenvale) and the smaller shopping centres to the Nth have taken over trade but in a booming economy everywhere should flourish
    - The Strand by comparison to the Cairns Esplanade seemed run down and in need of work - not a good sign
    - think if the coal money really, actually, flowed through would be a great investment, ditto if we (sadly) had a major conflict - defence force money flows back through the town like it has in the past.
    - would be interesting to see if the Ross Creek development gets off the ground. PPP needed there.

    I toyed with the idea of Nelly Bay as an investment but history indicates that would be very bad - if the Commonwealth decided to subsidise the land bridge (ferry) there would be $$ in my eyes and I'd by there and KIsland in a flash.

    Keep in mind with above advice I'm also not advocating for a Cairns IP.

    YF
     
  3. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    I would never go Townsville over Brisbane unless you have absolutely awesome timing skills. In the long run you going to do better in Brisbane.
    Brisbane is less volatile and there is more diverse demand for property and Cairns I would stay well away from that's basically based on tourism and that's about it.

    For peace of mind I would go Brisbane
     
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  4. strongy1986

    strongy1986 Well-Known Member

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    I hear what your saying but....
    townsville is coming off a bottom which took it 9 years to get to...
    I think brisbane had a similiar downward spiral 2007-2014?

    Time to buy in townsville was 6 months ago. Having said that if you jump on now you havn't missed too much

    Brisbanes ride is probably over the half way mark. It started in late 2013/ early 2014 Its an unusually long and slow upward cycle. Its so slow that many on here are complaining that nothing has happened which couldnt be further from the truth.

    8 Flower Street, Woolloongabba, Qld 4102 - Property Details - 460 then would sell for over 700k now
    83 Billan Street, Carina, Qld 4152 - Property Details - sold for 360 in 2013, would sell for about 530 now
    125 Melville Terrace, Manly, Qld 4179 - Property Details - sold 465 2013, now would fetch 650
    33 Livermore Street, Redcliffe, Qld 4020 - Property Details - sold 261 in 2013, now about 380
    134 Trouts Road, Stafford Heights, Qld 4053 - Property Details - sold 375 now would be 530

    ANyway you get the point, most parts of Brisbane -whetehr or outer have seen close to 50% growth from Late 2013/ early 2014 until today. So maybe another 50% if we are very lucky

    Brisbane isn't without risk either. Another flood like that one in 2011? and the prices will pretty much half again
     
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  5. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Good examples of growth.
    I'm still not convinced personally about Townsville though but if your gut feeling tells you then go with that
     
  6. Yellowfin1

    Yellowfin1 Active Member

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    Very interested in the stats to support Tville bottoming out 6 months ago.
     
  7. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Individual suburb statistics or more market wide data from the HTW monthly update?
     
  8. strongy1986

    strongy1986 Well-Known Member

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    Not all of Townsville, just your premium suburbs, east of castle hill

    no stats just basing it on what you could buy six months for under 400k is now up to mid 4s and less of this stock around
     
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  9. Yellowfin1

    Yellowfin1 Active Member

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  10. jacger

    jacger New Member

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    Thank you for all the comment and different viewpoints. I tend to agree with the above statement which also seems to be Corelogic's view (see also Buyer Demand Moves Off the Floor in Mining Regions)
    I also had a chat last week with an agent (for Parkside Development) in Townsville who are pushing the developments of Greater Ascot, Cosgrove, Liberty Rise and Willow Park (Land Estates - Parkside Development Townsville). The main focus of the conversation was that Townsville is at the bottom of the cycle and geared to take off; the aforesaid estates have 0% vacancy rates (hard to believe this statement); with the influx of army personnel and medical staff, demand will rise. I take this with a pinch of salt as he is obviously trying to sell the estates.

    In short, at this time I'm not convinced that Townville will offer better value for money compared to N Brisbane (e.g. Griffin).
     
  11. Yellowfin1

    Yellowfin1 Active Member

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    Interestingly, BIS Shrapnel has talked up Cairns and the GCoast for takeoff over the next 2-3 years (advice was 2 years ago) but only on the back of a lowered $AUS - will wait and see however. With Tville, it just doesn't seem to have "it" despite a good regional population and diverse industry - it did with mining. RE agents recently talked up recent sales of $M+ properties as a "sign" in the local rag....similar article was in the Cairns Post weeks earlier. Doesn't take many cashed up southerners relocating for business/professional opportunities to buy those properties or a medico who just got his fellowship while in Tville and doesn't have to pay mortgage insurance.
     
  12. Brittany

    Brittany New Member

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    Deception Bay is a great place to buy investment properties. Lots of properties selling over there. Good thing about deception bay is its close to three new railway stations.
     
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