Time or Timing The Market

Discussion in 'Living Room' started by MTR, 3rd Dec, 2021.

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  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    That paragraph is one big contradiction.. :)
     
  2. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    We didn't plan any of it ... was simply the next stage in consolidating towards retirement phase.

    Sold one of the holiday accommodation properties (that was dumb luck good timing too!), and bought two Newcastle townhouses OTP around 12 months before Covid ... bought the beachside PPOR around the same time, but did have to sell the farm PPOR just as Covid hit so missed out on a bit of uptake there (not as much as the beachside)

    So yep - about time some of it came our way as we usually have impeccable timing of selling 4-5 years before a massive boom (Merewether - sob!)
     
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  3. Rooky

    Rooky Well-Known Member

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    I am saying that 4 years back there was no leading indicator for Brisbane growth but it was best option. However, Brisbane did not boom when Sydney/Melbourne went down in 2017, 2018 and 2019. If it boomed during 2017, 2018 and 2019, I would say it was purely due to strategy. So it was more to do with luck that it boomed in 2020 onwards rather than strategy.
     
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  4. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    Disagree. Brisbane has been on simmer for a very long time, well overdue for a boom. Brisbane has a lot going for it and has grown and changed a lot. Anyone who bought 3 or 4 years ago had to know what they were doing to reason out all the naysayers.
    Same for any flat market where you're thinking "why is it so cheap here? I don't get it.'
     
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  5. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    It's a calculated risk, not luck. Sometimes luck becomes an issue as does bad luck.
    Though an ever or lon uptrending market mitigates the bad luck.




    Luck is when someone who never plays golf get's the ball on the green on a par 3 in one shot.
    Some play golf on wekends for 20yrs and never learn or just not suited and 20yrs later it's still luck if they can hit the green in one shot.
    In RE buy and hold for 20yrs works for wekenders too. If they take enough shots eventually one will get lucky. And so the skilled player appears to be lucky.
     
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  6. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I also agree Brisbane was just a matter of waiting... waiting... waiting. It had not been totally flat, but was well overdue for a decent bit of growth.

    We planned to sell a house just before Covid hit but chose to hold because it was compromised due to the build we were doing next door.

    Then a year on, we thought we'd hold a little longer, allow the gardens to grow, watch and wait, because we suspected Brisbane would get some long overdue growth.

    And that's when it happened...
     
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  7. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    The way I look at opportunity/risk may be different to you or others. I was shouting on PC the opportunities in Brisbane (and Sydney) all those years ago. Many were negative and pessimistic. All good.



    Like I said in an earlier post, at that time, Brisbane had

    1. Missed 2 major cycles
    2. Immense affordability relative to local income for a major city and for suburbs within 10km of the CBD for homes.
    3. Immense affordability when compared to Sydney and Melbourne
    4. decent yeilds
    5. Good add value potential in leafy PPOR suburbs.

    To me, that was more than enough to start strategically buying. Tbh, I even bought some sites for myself 2 years before that. When I look at the total return on those assets over the period of time invested - no complaints.
     
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  8. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    RE is mostly cheap when looking from the oustide, which is why BNE and SEQ mainly relies on Syd and MLB for it's growth
     
  9. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I remember the "Brisbane is going to boom" threads, that never seemed to come to fruition... until now. Long overdue.
     
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  10. Alex AB

    Alex AB Well-Known Member

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    Seems like Perth currently with those 4-5 points?
     
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  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Yes i started the thread

    cos the mantra was ….. Brisbane booms after Sydney but it never happened, it was Melb that boomed at that time

    No one gets it right all the time

    Why Hasn't Brisbane BOOMED
     
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  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    What has not been mentioned is that sourcing financing is far more difficult today.

    So if the timing is right investors just may not be able to buy regardless
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    BTW…. Side issue, anyone buying in Perth market today has got the timing right.

    6 months ago even better, but its coming from a low base and there is shortage of stock… boom

    Many investors will ignore this due to their own perceptions of Perth.

    My point is…. As an investor Opportunities can come along and ignored due to ones own bias. That’s life
     
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  14. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    I remember that. They were right about Brisbane (eventually) but wrong about Dame Melba!

    True but it's all relative. Your cheap and my cheap are probably different too.
    I guess Brisbane is grown-up enough to have renters who could afford to buy but have been putting it off. Now they'll bite the bullet and stay there. Not everything is about Sydney and Melbourne though they have a strong influence.
     
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  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I put Perth in a different risk basket when compared to Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane due to underlying demand and the fundamentals of what drives Perth.

    I'm not saying not to invest in Perth. I just see less risky propositions for me elsewhere.
     
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  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    On the flip side…..I think biggest risk can be getting the timing wrong.??? Sort of

    But look what happened, my mistake has become an awesome deal

    I did it with one property in Perth, but now I am looking at a profit of $550,000 on my development on completion. Not selling:)

    This was a buy in 2016, 3 unit site, hold costs $4500 pa. Market fell back, so held for 5 years. Project will be completed early 2022

    Dumb luck
     
  17. Ruby Tuesday

    Ruby Tuesday Well-Known Member

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    Dun know how house prices are booming if finance is more difficult. Massive gains on the stockmarket alone make financing much easier than any other time for investors. Read a a record number of loans will be approved for both dec and jan. if you already own property high house prices means lots more equity. It is easier to-day . I have been able to borrow in the last 6 months, 50% of what took me 40 years to borrow, for the previous 5 years I couldnt borrow any. Also the ease of finance is what is driving house prices. My son was asking advice because he said he can buy with a 5% deposit been in the work force 3 years with very ordinary salary. I have 4 tennants who are buying houses, 3 have been in Australia 2 years came here broke and owing money, are building new expensive houses, the other been here 10 years. No other time in history, no-body but the top decile of earners would be able to buy house of that size quality and price that they are. The issue is building , labour and land supply, not money supply.
     
    Last edited: 4th Dec, 2021
  18. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Really? I am looking at refinancing 4 properties next year. I know low doc is easy money today but not full doc atm. Its not the deposits it the guidelines DTS ratio that is the issue???

    Am I missing something, can MB clarify??
     
  19. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    I am a big believer that one creates their own luck.

    Whether that luck is good or bad, dumb or smart, … depends on you as a person and what actions you take/don’t take.

    My 2c.
     
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  20. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Nah..... just be a lazy investor ......
     
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