Time for the Baby Boomer to Pay Their Way.....

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by sash, 20th Nov, 2019.

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  1. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Dumb lucky, according to some!!
     
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  2. Timb89

    Timb89 Well-Known Member

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    I'm just going to post a comment I previously made as I can't make my stance any more succinct.

    "Don't get me wrong people still worked hard during this time, but for disproportionate and unsustainable results then can't be hoped to be achieved by people working equally as hard in the present day. Just an unavoidable fact sorry to say. And if those returns could be seen again, my vote would be to avoid that and steer our national investment strategies to more productive/diverse endeavours, as I believe the property market to be in bubble territory."

    As an aside I believe the stock market to be overpriced currently also, but a separate conversation.

    Now if you wish to tell me why you believe the datasets (can repeat them if need be) that have led me to my conclusion are wrong, I'd love to hear it. I'm happy to have my mind changed. In fact, I'm quite hoping to. If theres money to be made, I'm all in. Not convinced there is and I sure hope you understand why "back in my day" is and shouldn't be a compelling case, as it's the same argument the sexist bankers would have used to restrict your loan taking capacity.

    But your personal story is irrelevant to macro economics or what movements the market will make in the future.
     
  3. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    If you re read, you'll very clearly see that is the case.

    Thanks for the enlightenment but we all know that.

    But when you claim your feelings, beliefs, hypothesis, ... of the future are facts, then we should call you out.

    What a flooringly foolish post!!! Please explain how that anecdote added value to your POV?

    For someone who is such an advocate for facts, you post a lot of BS.
     
  4. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    Im a firm believer in making your own luck , I made mine by deciding to be born in the mid 60s , lots of time for travelling during my 20s , great way to see the world and expand your horizons .
    Even with backpacking around Europe , it really made me realize how lucky I was to grow up in a country like Australia.
    A lot of people never realize this.
    There is a reason why it was called "The lucky country."
    By the time I was in my late 20s and ready to settle down I could buy a nice cheap 3x1 15 year old house on a big block , and on a single income, house value was 3x my income and because wage growth was really good, that debt got smashed pretty quickly, long before the 20 year mortgage was due to be paid
     
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  5. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    My point is that in the same time period my parents worked their butts off, their friends didn't. So it really is not only the "dumb luck" of the time period, is it?

    It is also mindset, determination, doing something "out of the ordinary" and not just relying on some graph that says you are lucky because this time period makes it so.

    My parents made their own luck. Regardless of what the graph says.
     
  6. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    100% agree mate. But we're not in wartime . So make the most while the sun is shining I reckon.
     
    Last edited: 23rd Nov, 2019
  7. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Actions is everything. I don't judge anyone on what they say, but 100% on what they have achieved/ are achieving.
     
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  8. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Mate all us dumb people are going to learn and feel pain. Some prefer to learn via the pain of discipline and achieve their financial goals. Others will learn via the pain of regret and resentment.

    There is no avoiding pain. The outcome of that pain however, we can control.
     
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  9. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    I see it to, whether at work or talking to a real estate agent during an inspection. There are little real consequences to lying and poor behaviour that they are prevalent within society and the workplace so the viscous circle continues.
     
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  10. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    Obviously me and you dont listen to politicians ,
     
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  11. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    This is what I did/am doing.

    This is what inspired and motivated me to take action.

    BTW, this week I found out that two people I know very well bought themselves a new PPOR.

    One is a Millennial (25) and this is her first foray into property.

    The other is a Boomer (65), has been overseas for a few years and wants to come back to Oz.

    I know taking action has nothing to do with it and they both will have “dumb luck” on their side.
     
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  12. Timb89

    Timb89 Well-Known Member

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    My friend Elvis just went to space.
     
  13. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    Well, actually @kierank is living proof that GOOD luck can happen, because he MAKES it happen. You, on the otherhand are living proof that you reap what you sow, and your belief system is so negative that you don't believe you can achieve anything, which will most likely manifest itself as not having any luck at all.

    Yes, it's a bubble. And all dumb luck. That's why I picked up this in April https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-emerton-130727398 and sold it again in September after spending around $6k. Hard work & research played no part. A cheap enough property for a young FHB that, although not that pretty, they could have lived in, in day 1.
    https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-emerton-131579998
     
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  14. Timb89

    Timb89 Well-Known Member

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    So you added "not only" dumb luck. So we agree, we just differ on the percentage that it makes up.

    My argument is that if your parents applied the same ethic to starting the same path now they wouldn't achieve the same growth.

    Reasoning being, when I modelled the data taking prior growth as an indicator, the results were ludicrous and unsustainable. I believe growth of that magnitude to be politcally unlikely. I believe their to be a better buying opportunity during/post a recesion that the Australian economy needs to have. And if that opportunity did present itself, it would only be dumb luck. I worked hard to have the capital, but if I was born in Japan and was in that position just prior to their 20 year stagnation. That would be bad dumb luck.

    My main cause of concern for where I could be wrong, is that the Australian government has no choice but to prop up the over exposed property market. Which we might very well have no choice but to do. Still trying to figure it out. Which for some reason all the free market types are for. Weird.
     
  15. Timb89

    Timb89 Well-Known Member

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    You're just making my point for me in the first comment. No response.

    According to core logic data. Not according to REA data.
     
  16. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Is that a fact or an anecdote?
     
  17. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you as I know both you (and I) equate good luck with hard work.

    Finally, you got the message.
     
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  18. Timb89

    Timb89 Well-Known Member

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    If you're making the point of people you disagree with, either change your debsye strategy or your world view.

    Open to changing my mind. Just looking for something more substantial than "back in my day we worked 27hrs a day for two shillings and button".

    I don't think anyone here is open to changing their mind as it's all about "mindset". And I dont blame you, your experience was the astronomical price rises you observed which is why Australia has the property market disease and why external financial institutions see it as a risk to the global economy. However, Unfortunately not inductive proof a boom will happen again. Atleast with out the meddling of the state to support it.
     
    Last edited: 23rd Nov, 2019
  19. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I'm not sure what you mean by "debsye strategy" - assuming it is a typo, but seriously, let those who are getting on with it just get on with it.

    If the dumb luck we created for ourselves allowed us to make a "once in a lifetime" profit, regardless of whether it will never come around again or not, then work with what you have now, not what we had "back then". It's so easy to say "you all had it so easy". It wasn't easy. It's not easy now, but people are making it work now.

    Our 30 year old son is onto his third house. He started with a crappy two bed 70s unit, improved it and kept it. He moved to a crappy 70's house and we all pitched in to improve it and he and his partner (had a life partner by then to help with repayments) made a nice profit. They are now in a $2m+ house, huge mortgage but good profit in it. If the world changes and the bottom falls from the housing market, he will be in trouble, along with everyone else with a large mortgage. But that isn't a reason not to give things a red hot go.

    Dumb luck? No... an eye for a good buy and hard work.

    Next son is improving his first house and has turned an ugly duckling into what is become quite the swan (again, we all worked on it as he bought a crappy house with good potential).

    Those who want to make things work will do it. Those who don't, won't. Regardless of what the property cycle is doing, and regardless of the economy. Short of economic disaster, major depression etc, then people make things work with what they have to work with.

    For me, we've just done our thing regardless of the economic situation at the time. Right now, prices have been stagnant in our area for probably over ten years. But we just keep doing what we do best.
     
  20. Timb89

    Timb89 Well-Known Member

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    People are freely and of their own will engaging. I'm not stopping anyone from "getting on with it"

    Don't agree that putting yourself in debt is making it work. Depends on growth. Nobody seems to be ready to discuss or present their arguments for that topic.

    In regards to the rest of your comment, I'm not engaging with your anecdotes. They have no value to me.
     
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