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Time for best bargains?

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by standtall, 22nd Oct, 2015.

  1. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    So now that we know that things will slow down a bit or atleast this year is not going to be a repeat of last year, what's the best time to pick good bargains?

    A friend of mine (a stock investor) thinks that best time for picking bargains is the moment market changes momentum because this is when most people try to jump ships fearing worse things if they delayed any further and generally are willing to sell at a discount a lot more than actual expected fall because they want to end uncertainty.

    who else thinks we will start seeing good bargains in sydney market in next few days?
     
  2. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member

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    Cycle bottoms would typically take years to reach from the top, not a few days.
     
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  3. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    Property owners don't react like share traders. I doubt we'll see any big impact for the next 3 months. Owners and investors will hold properties as long as they are viable. Personally I will buy if I find the right one, not necessarily a discounted one.
     
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  4. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Its not the same as the stock market because property is not as liquid and it can't be sold over night. Owner occupiers make up a fair chunk of the market as well. Sellers who don't need to sell won't, a change in market conditions would be resisted by vendors initially.
    Best opportunities occur at the point be maximum pessimism, after several years of under performance and declining prices.
    When no one else is buying or turning up to opens and property generally in an area is on the nose, going against the crowd takes a little foresight but this is when bargains are found easily.
     
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  5. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    +1

    Agree in principle but don't you think anyone who's buying now will now want to buy 3 months later and everyone who intends to sell in next 12-18 months will try to sell now and this will result in properties accumulating on the market and prices going down.
     
  6. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    I thought about this recently.

    My theory being that some sellers who thought they were selling in a red hot market may have already purchased and therefore are forced sellers at a time when buyers are being cautious.

    However, whilst you might snag a bargain now, that price then becomes a comparable sale and works against future sellers. If buyers continue being cautious then you would assume the price will continue to drift down.

    There might be a handful of opportunities now but IMO there will be more in a few years. DO something else with your money in the meantime. Property and more specifically Sydney property is not the only place to make money.
     
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  7. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    The flow on effect due to APRA and interests will take a while unless interest jumps to 9% overnight and massive unemployment.
     
  8. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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  9. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    It might be too soon.

    I feel that we are now at 12 o'clock in Sydney...it will take about 18 months for bargains to come along....i don't think the market will move significantly for another 6-7 years. I wouldn't jump in just yet...it will take while for the specufester to adjust their expectations or panick sell. Watch for any more IR moves upwards..that will accelerate the decline quicker.
     
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  10. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    @larrylarry so you'll buy regardless the property clock / cycle you are in ?
     
  11. ZachAnsel

    ZachAnsel Well-Known Member

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    Not yet.. If your friend stock investor, he may know "do not catch the failing knife."

    Wait Perth 18-24 months from now and see...

    Then take a look at Sydney
     
    Last edited: 30th Oct, 2015
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  12. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    Have your mops ready for what were OTP apartments in western Sydney and south of the CBD due to settle in 18-24 months..
     
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  13. Greyghost

    Greyghost Well-Known Member

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    I agree somewhat with this, however I wouldn't be buying at the peak of a cycle in a particular city.. There is always good deals, it is the opportunity cost of buying elsewhere and the upside of getting in on a moving cycle elsewhere vs the slowing momentum of the bargin you found in that city plus any downside on market correction.

    As Sash said, once we get an IR movement or two - then you will see deals pop up from those who have over leveraged, but you will still need to be on the ball to pick up a solid deal..
     
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  14. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    I'm not buying in Sydney but I'll still buy elsewhere if you know what I mean.
     
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  15. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    There are always good deals but not perfect deals. So I'm not waiting for a perfect deal that comes along. I'm looking outside Sydney Metro.
     
  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    What you think is a bargain today will be a mistake tomorrow, because boom cycles have shorter time frames, bust cycles can go on for 7-10+ years, and prices can keep falling

    MTR:)
     
  17. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    @Steven Ryan fingers crossed mate for that. But still the over supply problem doesn't go away when you bought the apartment cheaper than before right ?
     
  18. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    Yes, that's what I have learnt so far in this forum, hence I'm refraining myself in buying OTP this year especially in Sydney.
     
  19. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    @larrylarry Yeah :cool: I've seen you've been active in the other thread mate ....
     
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  20. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    What's your strategy?