Time capsule Nominate city’s growth 2017-2018 YoY NO talking use template provided

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Illusivedreams, 19th Oct, 2017.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    2,454
    Location:
    Sydney
    As title suggested.

    Thread will open from Now for 2 weeks until end of OCTOBER 2017

    The aim will be to revive this thread in 1-year time to see who was closest. YoY growth November 2017 on.

    Please No Discussion Just percentages, the template of this post will follow.

    I will leave this to the majors chosen as I think it’s hard enough to forecast the majors.

    Cut and paste:


    Darwin -1.5%

    Brisbane 4.4-5%

    Perth 1.5%

    Canberra 5.5%

    Melbourne 8%

    Sydney 4.5%

    Hobart 10%

    Adelaide n/a
     
    DrunkSailor and ollidrac nosaj like this.
  2. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th Apr, 2016
    Posts:
    1,481
    Location:
    australia
    Darwin 1.2%

    Brisbane 3.2%

    Perth 1.1%

    Canberra 1.8%

    Melbourne 4.4%

    Sydney -2.2%

    Hobart 3.0%

    Adelaide 2.8%
     
  3. craigc

    craigc Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jun, 2016
    Posts:
    1,576
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Darwin -1.0%

    Brisbane 5.5%

    Perth 1.0%

    Canberra 5.0%

    Melbourne 8.5%

    Sydney 1,0%

    Hobart 9.5%

    Adelaide 4.5%
     
  4. OO1

    OO1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th Jun, 2017
    Posts:
    96
    Location:
    Sydney
    Downtown Block:
    Sydney -50%
     
  5. HGM

    HGM Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Jul, 2017
    Posts:
    150
    Location:
    Illawarra, NSW
    Darwin -4%

    Brisbane 0.5%

    Perth -3%

    Canberra 1.5%

    Melbourne -2%

    Sydney -8%

    Hobart 0.5%

    Adelaide 1.5%
     
    Codie likes this.
  6. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    10th Aug, 2017
    Posts:
    2,172
    Location:
    Utopia
    Darwin -10.2%

    Brisbane 0.2%

    Perth -10.1%

    Canberra 1.8%

    Melbourne -2.4%

    Sydney -18.2%

    Hobart -2.2%

    Adelaide -92.8%
     
  7. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    6,175
    Location:
    Australia
    Darwin -2%

    Brisbane 5%

    Perth 0%

    Canberra 2%

    Melbourne 5%

    Sydney 2%

    Hobart 8%

    Adelaide 2%

    Talking median prices for the entire city here.
     
  8. Erica

    Erica Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    308
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Darwin -7.0%

    Brisbane 5%

    Perth 1%

    Canberra 8%

    Melbourne 8%

    Sydney 2%

    Hobart 10%

    Adelaide 5%
     
  9. AlexV_Sydney

    AlexV_Sydney Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Mar, 2017
    Posts:
    517
    Location:
    Sydney
    Sydney -3.5%
     
  10. Toilandtrouble

    Toilandtrouble Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Mar, 2017
    Posts:
    137
    Location:
    ACT
    Darwin -3%

    Brisbane 4.7%

    Perth -0.5%

    Canberra 7%

    Melbourne 6.5%

    Sydney -0.8%

    Hobart 5.5%

    Adelaide 3.1%
     
  11. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    4,244
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Brisbane ( inner and mid): +8%
    Brisbane ( outer) : +5%

    Sydney (inner and mid): -3%
    Sydney (outer): -10%

    Melbourne ( inner and mid): +5%
    Melbourne ( outer): +4%

    Adelaide, Perth, Darwin : will be very mixed with high variability in short timeframes, overall averages will be negative.
     
    Codie and PropertyExtraordinaire like this.
  12. JK200SX

    JK200SX Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    526
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Darwin -3.5%

    Brisbane 8%

    Perth -2%

    Canberra 5%

    Melbourne 2%

    Sydney -3%

    Hobart 4%

    Adelaide 1%
     
  13. devank

    devank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,669
    Location:
    Inner West - Sydney
    I used Excel to create random numbers. This is what I get:
    Darwin -0.3%
    Brisbane -1.1%
    Perth 3.5%
    Canberra 2.4%
    Melbourne 2.7%
    Sydney 2.6%
    Hobart 0.7%
    Adelaide 2.5%
     
    Noobieboy and ollidrac nosaj like this.
  14. AlexV_Sydney

    AlexV_Sydney Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Mar, 2017
    Posts:
    517
    Location:
    Sydney
    Up

    Results (YoY, 5 major cities):

    Sydney: -6.24%
    Melbourne: -4.18%
    Brisbane: +0.66%
    Adelaide: +0.73%
    Perth: -3.77%

    I think @HGM 's forecast was the best
     
    craigc and Perthguy like this.
  15. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Feb, 2017
    Posts:
    396
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Seems we all not at smart as we think we are.
     
    craigc and ollidrac nosaj like this.
  16. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th Apr, 2016
    Posts:
    1,481
    Location:
    australia
    Lol, my Melbourne guess was way off.
     
  17. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jun, 2017
    Posts:
    756
    Location:
    Melbourne
    This is just one of the more “optimistic” forums. There is another forum that predicted much deeper declines by now.
     
  18. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    2,454
    Location:
    Sydney
    1.5 months after this post the Royal banking commission was announced changing the lending landscape for the foreseeable future.

    This was rather unexpected.

    If some one knew this . Shorting bank stocks would have made them very rich right.
    Although I don't think many knew this.
     
  19. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    2,454
    Location:
    Sydney
    But some really good calls here.
    Mine was way off.
     
  20. AlexV_Sydney

    AlexV_Sydney Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Mar, 2017
    Posts:
    517
    Location:
    Sydney
    The main drivers were APRA and other important changes in supply & demand, happened 4-5 months before your post, and the impact was expected and calculated by many members here. But you didn't listen and called that 'negative'. And yes... if you would consider that information as fact, not as negative information, you could make more money and worldn't miss other opportunities