VIC Thoughts on Rockbank h & l

nope, not at all. If you reread my original post again you will find the answer...

even Dr Andrew Wilson thinks Melbourne is having last drinks.

 

How many times did Dr Wilson get his prediction correct?

 

Wow the doc says it's over so it must be.

Interestingly I read an article buy him on the 17th of the month talking about further growth for Sydney and Melbourne.

I find economists are much better at explaining the past than fortelling the future.

Does the doc still have to work for a living?

 

If it is written it must be true.....Jah said so.....

 

thats the plan man. glad to hear some other people are doing this too.

 

Whilst I'm sure these learned folk are far smarter that myself (he has a doctorate after all), I find it strange that they don't put their research skills and economic prowess into making money for themselves. Yet a bloke who works for dominoes can basically retire at half the docs age, cause he backs himself and buys into property.

 

Great point...ask the blokes who are worth 20-30m plus and ask if they let the stats dictate what they did..... that is why very Medical Doctors...Lawyers ...Accountants...Engineers get past a comfortable lifestyle....

 

me thinks it's a bit late to get into H&L at this late of the cycle, but that's just me..

there is nothing wrong with H&L with the intention to sell in a booming market, but keeping new stock when the market goes side way me don't think its a good idea..

look at vacancy rates in Perth metro (below 6%) and compare with new estate such as Butler (8%) and Baldivas (12%), they are considerably higher.

Sydney in a booming market and low vacancy rate, the new estate such as The Pond/Kellyville ridge presents an average higher vacancy rate then wider metro...

In QLD, we get the same story the new estate have a higher vacancy rate in Dakabin, Mango Hill, North Lakes..

The newer estate is good for PPOR...not so much renter market.
More importantly when a market tanks, Developer cant sell a stock, what do they do with the stock? Developers rented it out in bulk which saturates the area...

 

watcha....saying.......I hold quite a few in some of these estates....did you look at what is renting and what is not....must be something I am not getting?

The property market moves in cycles.....Perth is definitely down...yes rent have are down and I accordingly have adjusted this. 3 out of 30 represents 10% of the portfolio. Also....you can't build a product which I build mine for in Butler or Wellard. ...so I am still up in gains thought it has come down.

As for Moreton Bay regions ...the reason Dalabin, Mango Hill and North Lakes have higher vacancies is because investment groups got in there. That is why avoided them...just like Baldivis.

There are some new estates in Perth where the vacancy is low.....

 

Yes, I have found your old somersoft post..
Butler - now on the investment map

It's basically a reenactment and same pitch what you're saying here. no-one has crystal ball but I definitely prefer holding older stock in s flat/down cycle....then a flashy new house, just my view

The original poster also appears to be concerned with H&L at this later stage cycle...

the other concern is holding new stock in a stagnation cycle. It was flashy new to begin with, not so much after holding few years...
this post goes into full discussion..
New vs Old - What do you think?

.. and do read MTR's first few replies in above link in her positions regarding H&L in a down cycle.

This is going to end up with same discussion over and over before we start bickering and mod comes in.. I am going to bail from this thread. good discussion though.

 

Melbourne and Sydney market/cycle so hard to undertand at the moment - expecting them to drop soon but they just keep going and going! There is still so much demand in both cities, Conservative me tells to me not buy.....bc soon reaching the peak. But then 350k h and l say in rockbank is pretty cheap, and I can't see these prices going any lower. But yes may be hard to rent out if cycle turns.

 

Also what are people's thoughts on thornhill park vs rockbank ? Thornhill park is cheaper, less infrastructure , has proposed rail. Better to get in earlier to newer estate or buy in existing one ?

 

Let just say...they are still worth more than I paid for them.

But here is pearler...they give about 5-6k back each year.......through depreciation and other allowances......that 33k in deductions.....get the drift.

 

Nothing wrong with your opinion here.

It may be getting late in the cycle. Time will tell. I think Melb will keep going strong next year, it's 2018 I'm less confident about.

As for rental the areas I am doing H&L in are all sub 3% vacancy infact pretty sure they are all sub 2% of top of head. Can't see this rapidly changing just because the heat comes out of the market.

With regard to developers renting. Developers don't build homes and sell them in Vic. Developers deliver land. Builders build, and 90% of the time it's with a forward order. What developers can do is discount the land. Which they typically do by way of rebates. $20k is the most I have seen and it was short lived. For me it would need to be a discount upwards of $50k to effect me and with what it costs a developer to produce land that is highly unlikely. They typically just stop releasing until the demand meets the supply again.

Again I agree with @MTR H&L is not a winner in a falling market, as in I wouldn't produce it in a falling market, but it doesn't mean don't hold the stuff your up on. Personally though I like to sell some keep some. This way my position has a much greater buffer.

No bickering here. You presented a different opinion to mine, but you didn't just say I'm wrong your right. It's that kind of attitude that doesn't bring out the best responses in people.

 

Yep...blind freddy can see this...lots of subcontinent types who want to near the Sri Lankan Buddhist and Indian temples....

Either one is winner....Thornhill Park is a bit away from facilities

Hmmmm...people quoting @MTR ..... I don't think that would be he reaction...she is used to dealing with all sorts of strategies...I am sure she would agree that Outer Melbourne is having its day in the sun...just not for forever...as you put it danger signs will probably eventuate in 2018/2019 when there are substantial rises...

100% agree with this point taking..without understanding the fundamentals of markets..due not cool. It is obvious Sydney and Inner Melbourne has had their increases...now it is time for Outer Melbourne...even the Dr's chart shows this as Melbourne is behind Sydney in growth.

 

Oh...by the way when your are getting 1.2m+ in gold Ole Werribee ...ya know the train is headed further out due to affordability.....just normal part of the cycle. The old hand and smart investors know that.....

Melbourne suburbs where house prices have risen the fastest

 

Sash, i am wondering how you manage your builder in melbourne as an interstate investor. Do you fly down to melb every month to check the work progress? I always have the impression that dealing with builders to make sure they deliver quality work within agreed timeframe is the most annoying part of H&L

 

I know a guy who dropped out of school at 16, went on to work in RE. Got his RE license under the grandfather provisions. Has a portfolio over $60M and guess how he built it?

That's right H&L. He now does unit developments, but it all started in H&L. He kept some sold some. The portfolio grew. He became a builder a LREA a developer. I have no idea why he still works as he's worth over $60M (even after 3 MBUs). I suspect he just still
Enjoys it.

 

I am interstate....I did mine WA that way...also Melbourne/Geelong ones also.

I do get an independent reports via building spectors.

As for timeframes..I don't sweat the small stuff any more...

Wow $60m!

What are MBUs?

 

Marriage Bust Ups