Thoughts on Nathan birch's 2018 recession theory

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Frank M, 27th May, 2018.

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  1. datageek

    datageek Well-Known Member

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    To me, an expert is judged by their track record. I've been assessing experts for about a decade now.

    I have almost nothing on Nathan Birch. Does anyone have any concrete cases of purchases made or recommended locations with dates?

    Surely someone knows of a project he may have promoted in the past. Surely someone is a past client.
     
  2. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    This guy calls him "Mr IQ" ....

    An angry Mr IQ shows whites of the eyes - MacroBusiness


    This guy gets even more direct...

    Birch now in damage control

    He's leveraged probably multiple times over in a wedding-style tier cake of investments. Normally the base layers are all paid off and fund the layers above in increasingly marginal increments but I can see this guy's mantra is not to have any "dead" equity at all sitting in a property so he'll have gone back to the bottom layers (his first investments that did the best) and siphoned out whatever equity he could from every layer.

    Otherwise he wouldn't be in this situation. If he had even one solid property, he could have just liquidated that to cover multiple ongoing money demands at once. The fact he hasn't implies he's got no real equity of note in anything. The whole thing is as solid as pavlova all the way down and now the bank has put its foot on top.
     
  3. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    My god, 3 out of 4 posts are a few bogans trying to outdo eachother in boganness
     
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  4. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    I feel dirty after reading that. I'll stay here, thankyou very much, where we don't have that level of foul mouth trash.
     
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  5. Coconutwheels

    Coconutwheels Well-Known Member

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    I used his buyers agency back in 2012 for 3 cash flow purchases. No dramas, got what I asked for. I already had quite a few properties behind me at the time and after enduring some terrible cash flow from them, I would only look at positive cash flow properties from them.
     
  6. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Nathan was a regular poster on Somersoft - plenty of discussion about his investments there from his pre-bInvested years - Nathan

    He stopped posting once he ramped up his business.
     
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  7. Vertigo

    Vertigo Well-Known Member

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    I wonder why no one likes him? I often used to read about him renovating in those Property magazines many years ago and to be honest the one article when he made 130+ in a reno somewhere in the middle of nowhere was the reason why I started to buy property and do it.

    I never engaged the guy for anything but I often used to read about him in the forums, of course he comes across as a bogan but no one is perfect and for no doubt he has a hard work ethic in regards to labour
     
  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I think thats part of the marketing tool.... bogan, everyone loves the underdog, poor boy made good

    love your avatar...... fascinating.....:)
     
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  9. Vertigo

    Vertigo Well-Known Member

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    thanks, I followed your posts also for many years, congrats on the success! :)
     
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  10. SMTY

    SMTY Well-Known Member

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    An angry Mr IQ shows whites of the eyes - MacroBusiness
    Reading the comments in that thread highlights there is a lot of envious and bitter people out there who seem to gain joy from others joining them in their misery, to validate their own poor choices
     
  11. AnDy62

    AnDy62 Active Member

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    Agree - Nathan gets a lot of hate, but he is a smart guy who has worked very hard and done well for himself. Many people who veer off from the mainstream get a lot of hate sadly. His success comes a working class boy who in his own words 'failed every grade from kindergarten to Year 12'. You gotta admire that imo.
     
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  12. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    here in 2020 , i guess i could add a little bit of jealousy to the hate group , i thought this meltdown was due in 2013 , kudos to Nathan for getting closer than me .

    but the novices now are being offered the education of a lifetime if they choose to watch and learn

    several records have been broken this year in the financial world , maybe there are a couple more to come

    take care there could be more complications to come
     
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  13. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    I bought a small commercial property which he had suggested in a large rural city a number of years back - $200K & $10K spotters fee - based on cashflow, a lease and the ability to buy cash. He had offered a number of properties, this appeared to be the best.

    It's been an absolute dog. It's in a crappy area. Graffiti has been a big problem. The initial tenants didn't renew (it's possible the lease was a setup to sell the property). After a long vacancy, I had one tenant who had big problems paying - but did eventually pay back. Then a tenant who had big problems paying - ended up owing $28k which I couldn't get back. It was vacant for a long time (during which insurance was too expensive to be worthwhile). I had one tenant who had three months rent free in return for a two year lease - but then vacated in less than nine months (even though the rent was substantially less than initially, making the cashflow positive incentive redundant). It's been vacant for well over a year now. I had a buyer interested about six months ago. He then withdrew, then came in again. When Covid-19 came, he withdrew again. He's just come back in again. Sale price - $170k, though with vendor finance (first mortgage though).

    So it lost money for all but the first six months, and will lose on the sale - but I'm happy to be rid of it.
     
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  14. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    Because he's dishonest and makes money at the expense of others.
     
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  15. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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    Ouch!:eek: