This is what timing can do for you

Discussion in 'Investment Strategy' started by standtall, 5th Dec, 2016.

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  1. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Current small rises are just opportunistic in nature. It will take a major rise to unsettle Sydney prices. Banks have already assessed most customers @5.5% to 6%.
     
  2. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Well, I am not so sure, I saw 10% approx pull back where I am when APRA changes& rate rise hit & from less than 1 week to sell to over 2 months, so that is why I believe the heat is rate sensitive.

    Small increases add up, but the rises from APRA changes were reversed with cuts and kicked things off again, I do not think that will happen again.

    This boom is lock step with rate cuts, I see no reason for it not to reverse if trend starts of rate rises.

    So we will see.
     
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  3. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Was this Syd West??, as I saw some areas pull back as well during this time
     
  4. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    There was a bit of a pull-back in the market in approx November 2015, although I can't remember the cause.
     
  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    pretty sure Syd west was one area, but I think falls in interest rates sparked it up again?
     
  6. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    It was in many places, it was very short, it looked like the end of the boom, but then the rate cuts reversed that and then some till now.

    I am far from an expert, but this indicated to me how sensitive to rates things were/are.
     
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  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    yes your right
     
  8. Gypsyblood

    Gypsyblood Well-Known Member

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    If you buy sight unseen, do the REA offer any special assistance?
     
  9. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

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    Have been pondering fixing for some time.
    I agree, it is very close to time to do...
    But, 1-2 years ???
    I was thinking more like 5 years (of stress free time)
     
  10. Chris Au

    Chris Au Well-Known Member

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    Great comments, sometimes you need to lock rates (unfortunately no access to equity or selling) to give certainty, Selling to give funds for other projects (agree with tax paying, but a cost of doing business, and says you're selling at a profit!) and equity access, providing you can test the SANF and understand the risks going forward (prices can drop)

    I agree about headaches with selling process, but all part of the fun! I'm also looking into selling a Syd unit and am tossing up holding, or taking the gains. Then I read back to @MTR's post above, and others, where sometimes you have to take the gains as cash to move into other aspects.
     
  11. Hwangers

    Hwangers Well-Known Member

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    hello, IMO currently - detached housing is booming, new units at risk of oversupply, flats/townhouses stable, commercial vacancies still high, pop growth steady, wages growth steady (public sector), govt hiring freeze removed, large transient population, good infrastructure projects underway - be mindful of nil land tax threshold if investing, stamp duty deduction , also great roads and access - peak hour lasts 10-15minutes

    always envious of wide, flat, straight, roads in melb and cbr - beats the hills and pockmarked narrow streets in syd anyday!
     
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  12. Chris Au

    Chris Au Well-Known Member

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    Devil's advocate here....

    Canberra is a city and has all the major industries covered, however, is driven a lot by the 2 governments.... When there is a tightening of recruitment in either of these 2 sectors, the general economy slows....
     
  13. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Timing is very important. My worst investment was bought in peak of last cycle in mid 2010 in Melbourne. It has grown less % wise than my investments in 2012 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 (yes I bought every year).

    And no 2015 and 2016 were not bought in Aus.
     
  14. jins13

    jins13 Well-Known Member

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    Rather than just relying on timing, how about keeping a good property for the long haul? I have yet to sell any properties and have faith in my purchases. Possibly I may sell in the long term to pay off some debt but the IPs were all well bought and have many things going for the area. It's almost like the share market when prices goes down abit, shock horror, people sell up when it was only a small bump along the road. Of course if you're bought in mining areas or some big news that may change the area for the worse, then that's something to consider.
     
  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Depends on your definition of a good property and your strategy? No right or wrong.

    There are plenty of properties in Perth at the moment that are good properties due to location, product, but if rent is not covering the mortgage, interest rates are rising, property prices are falling and there is an oversupply of rentals.... it still may be a good property, but not necessarily a great investment/strategy if holding for the next rise/boom cycle...... cos it could take 5 years and the investor is bleeding.

    I personally would prefer to time the market and find opportunities to make money today.
     
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  16. jins13

    jins13 Well-Known Member

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    Of course a good property is subjective and it differs from people to people. But my view is that there are alot of good drivers for keeping my current stock for the long haul and the majority of my holding are houses which I have future plans for. What I am trying to say is that some people panic in the interim and don't really seem to have a long term vision. If you feel that the property is not going to do anything for you for the next 20 years, that's a different position to be, but if I experience a minus 1% growth this year, that's not going to scare me off.
     
  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Yes I get this, but property is all about cycles, boom and bust, IMO many factors need to be considered not only timing, like I said no right or wrong, but if you have a choice to retire early because you time the market why not?

    Also sometimes life gets in the way and you have no choice but sell.... ie health issues, divorce, job loss etc. what if you cant sell ??

    MTR:)