This Housing Downturn is Over

The factors being discussed while it maybe just enough to slow the rate of declines in Sydney/Melbourne - Brisbane has been flat and not really done much it may just be enough to help it pick up some steam.

Not enough migration or demand to out strip supply just yet and cause anything substantial, but enough to cause multi offers on good owner occ stock when affordability isn’t such an issue, add the FHB scheme, rate cuts that make an all ready affordable city, more affordable, vacancy rates trending down, is this enough to start 5% PA increases across the board in brissy? I’d like to hope so anyway.

 

Financial advisor talking his book!

Unfortunately the downturn has not properly started yet, plenty metrics saying another 30% to go to even get close to normality in world terms.

It can possibly be slowed, or even briefly reversed, but in the end normality has to be reached, which means house prices back to 3-4 times wages.

Australia still competes in a world market, so it can stand outside for a while, but the artificial bank supported high property prices put us at a disadvantage, higher rents, higher business costs, in a country with no shortage of land.






Roads are made, streets are made, services are improved, electric light turns night into day, water is brought from reservoirs a hundred miles off in the mountains — all the while the landlord sits still. Every one of those improvements is affected by the labor and cost of other people and the taxpayers. To not one of these improvements does the land monopolist contribute, and yet, by every one of them the value of his land is enhanced. He renders no service to the community, he contributes nothing to the general welfare, he contributes nothing to the process from which his own enrichment is derived…The unearned increment on the land is reaped by the land monopolist in exact proportion, not to the service, but to the disservice done.

— Winston Churchill, 1909

 

Have look at the migration rates into Brissie ...mostly from Sydney and Melbourne....

Once Adani and other resources projects get going..its all apples...

 

Ouzo bout so same same

Brisbane has to take off surely and Sydney/Melbourne to have a bounce back, the question is how much...

 

Big "M".....yes Ouzo bout so...yassas. on the Ouzo..ole man!

 

Although I don’t think areas such as oran Park will be ghost town, it’s hard to see prices much further ahead in 10 years from a current median of $750k on 400m2 block imo.

For that distance, and a ok “town centre” which I have seen myself, appears extremely over priced and 10 years from here hard to see those areas pushing a median price over a million.

You can pick up a house on 900m2 in baulkham hills for $900k..sure it doesn’t have the bells and whistles of a new house in oran park but it’s easy to see the price disparity

7 Justine Avenue, Baulkham Hills, NSW 2153

Although

 

Expecting prices in Sydney and Melbourne to fall back to those leveles is an extreme prediction. If it does, couples on 250k plus income could pay off a median house in a few years.

 

Speaking of ghost towns... channel 9 just did a segment on Sydney apartments, and actually used (close enough to) this term. Fifty percent increase in rentals in a year?!?! There is no way interest rate cuts can fix this.

 

Alot of couples now don't want a huge block to mowe for the sake of a good block.
As long as the ammenties are close by let a me one else mow the lawn.

I agree it's expensive. Some people want a gorgeous.new.home . Good ceilings big rooms and modern.

They don't want an 70s brick home.


The other thing is as some one who doesn't like Baulkham Hills at all. For me a.new home in Oran Park is a better choice.
It's preference.


When my parents were shopping.an apartment in Randwick was $180,000 every said they can't see it going much further.

We can't always see the future.

Maybe autonomous vehicles will make outer suburbs more desirable.maybe even further such as north or south coast. Have a nap and u are at work?

The future is sometimes unbelievable.

 

As coming from central coast and seeing prices close to double in recent times there, I don’t believe the impossible but incomes are already completely stretched in these locations

Oran Park like central coast is just a ripple effect of Sydney but have over shot. Considering Sydney has dropped 15-20%, these areas have held their own but for how long who knows

 

Make your own interpretations here:

Got a call from a mate who doesn’t have a pre-approval in place but has shortlisted 3 properties and he is willing to enter a contract today and risk 0.25% deposit if he couldn’t secure finance because he thinks market wouldn’t even wait for him to get pre-approval.

This is the kind of behavior that results in Sydney frenzy every time it starts peaking!

 

Well I’ve been bullish on my market bottom call of mid year IF Libs stay in so not changing my thoughts now.

However what I would say is if 1-2 rates and a well publicized improvement to capacity happens I do have concerns what the media would do with this and the effects on people’s sentiment.

We talk a lot on here about government and regulatory intervention but I don’t think enough weight is given to media and the effect on buyer sentiment.

 

So many getting worked up by this prediction, don't understand why. It's just a prediction as per the OP.

Very informative wether you are in or out on the prediction.

You got to give credit to the brokers or advisors putting these predictions/thoughts out there. They are putting their names and businesses on the line, unlike many anonymous posters who bring pretty much nothing to the conversation.

 

There is actually an even bigger coal mine next to adani thats owned by chinese and put on hold due to inability to obtain funding.

Iibs might have won the seats in that area but the community there is still quite divided and quite a bit of protest. Its a matter of sacrificing future water and farming activities in return for short term economic job boosts from mining.

Qld and brisbane economy is still largely mining based and any sort of boom will depend on how much new mining investment comes into the state and commodity prices of coal and gas. Unfortunately for now we are at the downcycle part of the mining boom where some royalty/tax money is still coming from existing mines but not much money is coming in for new investment into mining projects which is where the billions are at and where massive credit is created.

Till the next cycle comes about i guess then brisbane will boom again.

 

Knock down job in Bentleigh(melbourne) went for 1.7 this morning
big block but single dwelling covenant
multiple bidders

huge result

 

Sounds like FOMO

 

It has quickly turned from ‘greed’ for further discounts to ‘fear’ of missing out.

 

Some properties I've been looking at have sold before auction this week and agents have upped the guide price by 7 to 10% on others. Sneaking feeling FOMO is back.

 

Why does everything need some cheap slogan.
How about the market sentiment has shifted?

Reminds me of Tony Abott and "Stop the boats"

 

Credit easing and rate cuts will take 2-3 months to flow through so either credit really doesn’t matter that much or most of the enthusiasm is going to be short lived.