This Housing Downturn is Over

@Redom you've been spot on this past 6 - 9 months and everything you've said I've felt like i was seeing on the ground in the areas/stock I monitor

For the first time I'm going to disagree with you and say that I dont think we'll get much price uplift in the next 12 months.

My view is the mkt is currently at or slightly above 2017 highs (again in the areas I monitor) and will tread water from April onwards.

More stock will come on and there will be buyers to meet supply but not force it higher.

Just my 2c

 

i think this is a pretty reasonable take on things.

 

@Redom how do you interpret the split in the market? The expensive stuff in sydney is back at 2017 levels but the cheaper stuff (600ish) still seems 10% below peak.

 

Just wondering where the dead cat bounces are from the start of this thread??

 

My take on this, based on my buying across 18 years in both affordable and affluent areas is that this is pretty normal occurring. The start of the boom almost always begins in more desirable areas and ripples outwards. Inner and inner-mid ring suburbs experience the immediate growth and it flows outwards to middle, outer middle followed by outer suburbs. I have seen this pattern play out in each cycle since 2002 and I dont believe this cycle is any different.

 

The $1m plus market has been very strong in the last 6mo.
Someone I know, His house in Ryde are... He was expecting 1.3-1.4M, but sold for 1.5M + under the hammer

 

Western Australia may get to the party a bit late

 

Friend of mine in Bondi expecting around 4.1m( based on comparables). Sold 4.6m+.

So much for blue chip falling long and hard when markets correct.

 

Well this is a reflection markets are responding to the cut in interest rates and confidence of investors post election with no change to things like negative gearing and CG tax.

With continued central bank support it is very unlikely for blue chip property to fall long and hard if at all.

There should be some further uptick next year especially when RBA is forced to go to zero rates and as our currency devalues further to global peers.

 

SMH reporting a drop in unemployment

Australian unemployment falls unexpectedly following surge in part time hiring
Australian unemployment fell unexpectedly in November, helped by booming growth in part-time employment.

According to the ABS, hiring increased by 39,900 during the month after seasonal adjustments, near triple the 15,000 increased expected by economists.

Full time employment rose by 4,200 with the remainder coming from part time positions.

With the participation rate holding steady at 66.0 per cent, the boost in hiring was enough to see the national unemployment rate dip 0.1 percentage points to 5.2 per cent. Economists were forecasting unemployment to remain unchanged at 5.3 per cent. Total unemployment declined by 16,800 to 708,100 persons.

Perversely, this saw the ASX drop. I think that's because it made another interest rate cut less likely. Weird times. Good data = bad for share markets.

 

Which reminds me of a joke what did the duck say to the fraudster?

Quack quack....

 

Haha, still here. I figure if I wait long enough I'll be right eventually.

 

Markets are always forward looking so if any data comes out that could change the forecasted expectations, prices change accordingly.
I believe the housing market is similar, just a little bit more lag behind it since liquidity is much lower (you can't sell a house in 5 mins like you can a stock).

 

See nothing but respect for you.
You had an opinion, owned it and still do.
More than I can say for those who have a tendency to put a ** next to every post they make.

Well played sir

 

@albanga

BMV is alive and kicking. I can assure you.*


* Conditions apply.**

** Conditions apply to the conditions.

 

Melbourne home prices to rise faster than Sydney in 2020

"..CoreLogic is expecting Melbourne home values to rise by up to 14 per cent in the next 12 months, while Sydney is forecast to grow by up to 12 per cent.

At this rate, CoreLogic expects Melbourne home values to hit a new record as early as January next year.

Mr Lawless expects Sydney home values to reach a new high by March next year.."

I guess the cat is going for the Guinness Book of World Records for the highest bounce whilst dead

 

Why thank you kind sir. When the arse falls out of the global economy, look me up and I'll buy you a drink*

*may be homebrew

 

I own 10 in Melbourne and Geelong. What you are saying is not a great thing...if it jumps I could come down just as hard. I own in Sydney also....interesting times...

 

Strong finish to the year Epping NSW. Townhouse 3/2/2 sold at auction just now around the corner from me. 1.51m. The second and third bedrooms aren’t huge. It previously sold 1.24m on 30 July 2016 which was just before the last peak. 1.51m is nearly 22% higher than the last sale price.

I’ve noted there’s recently been a lot of over 2mill house sales too.

 

Wont be long when the median house price is over 2 mil