NSW The Signs of Sydney Slowdown....

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by sash, 29th Jun, 2015.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. ej89

    ej89 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    819
    Location:
    Sydney.
    I'd rather park 300k in Melb and Bris instead of Hobart over next 5 years. Would rather miss the boat after the population of 5 people buy their homes in Hobart haha is there an undersupply?
     
    Barny, Dean Collins and Nlang like this.
  2. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    5,098
    Location:
    Sydney
    Hobart will do well , having said that we have close to 6 times the amount of investment in Brisbane than we have in hobart .

    Cliff
     
    ej89 likes this.
  3. jins13

    jins13 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,355
    Location:
    Sydney
    I want to get into the Tassy market if my recent purchase settles and goes according to plan. For some reason, I just feel that there is something big going to happen in Tasmania that's going to set it off even though the data does not show a significant increase in comparison to the other states.
     
  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,755
    Location:
    My World
    Read thread on Tassie. I believe inner city is already moving.
     
  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,755
    Location:
    My World
    You wont feel it you will actually see it. For a start stock will start to tighten, houses will sell in shorter time frame. Need to establish whether it is houses or units or both that are moving and where. Start with inner city and network.

    You will also notice an increase of under contract on realestate.com.au, this is a dead give away.

    Work with what people on the ground tell you, forums are good for leads but you need to network with re agents that actually have a handle on the market, this is the key.
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  6. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,572
    Location:
    Sid en e - olympic city
    Yeah, I am sure there is :)
     
  7. Bentley

    Bentley Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    102
    Location:
    Adelaide
  8. Dean Collins

    Dean Collins Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    21st Feb, 2016
    Posts:
    982
    Location:
    New York
    ....yep Global warming.....
     
    ej89 likes this.
  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,755
    Location:
    My World
    We know clearance rates are absolutely brilliant at the moment and short on stock, but is this the case everywhere ?? I see some markets cooling??? I am not on the ground and this was what I witnessed late last year?? can anyone provide more detailed info on this
     
  10. Frazz

    Frazz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    78
    Location:
    Sydney
    Which markets do you see cooling? Or are you referring to when you were last on the ground a year ago?
     
  11. Property Twins

    Property Twins Mortgage Brokers & Buyers Agents Business Member

    Joined:
    31st May, 2016
    Posts:
    2,738
    Location:
    Australia
    Caught up with an agent we bought from in the Parramatta region. The tea was on us as he went door knocking for us when we wanted to buy a block for the build and then enabled a win win deal with happy sellers and happy buyers on a weekday night before he put the deal online. He said the market is hot...with both investors and owner occupiers. Though agreed that it can't go forever and does expect there to be a time when there are 20 open homes for a buyer to attend and you need to literally lock a buyer in the car and take them to your opens. We're happy to be those buyers :).

    He did say last October it felt as if there was fairy dust and the buyers disappeared one fine day and it was all medias doing. He was telling people.....NOW is the time to buy when no one wants to and it won't be the same in six months. But buyers follow the herd.
     
  12. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,572
    Location:
    Sid en e - olympic city
    It was interest rate changes in the upward motion and APRA, not fairy dust or media.
     
    Dean Collins likes this.
  13. Jungle

    Jungle Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Feb, 2016
    Posts:
    104
    Location:
    NSW
    I do fully agree with the media playing a big role.
    It seems that real estate agents are gone smart and only auctioning the properties which they know will sell at or above reserve price. Creating a false sense that market is hot (shows high clearance rate on paper and media)
    To most of buyer (high clearance rate = hot market, buy quick)
    I was looking into Western Sydney market and out of 36 houses that were initially advertised to be auctioned only 8 of them made it to the Auction.
     
    Dean Collins likes this.
  14. Dean Collins

    Dean Collins Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    21st Feb, 2016
    Posts:
    982
    Location:
    New York
    Flicking through the NSW results today....seems like a lot passed in.
     
  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,755
    Location:
    My World
    I sold out of Syd West late last year as this market was cooling, I am only looking at my patch. The only way of knowing what is happening is to network with those that are selling and work out what is happening to volume and days on the market. There are markets within markets, this is a forum so we speak in general terms.

    The world is not about to collapse, but I like to take a bet each way.:)
     
  16. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,149
    Location:
    Sydney
    Put it this way... you sold late last year. I sold early this year. both are in Syd West. The price we could achieved was similar between Oct 2015 - April 2016.
    However after speaking to few agents and all the information at hand, I believe you and I would got 5-10% more if the property was sold today..
    I know you're not a big fan of stats, but would present them to you anyway.
    Below are few suburbs in Blacktown and Penrith, asking price index, it is trending upwards and are in green for now.... but God knows what's in store for Sydney in 2017...

    Blacktown/ Kings Park/ Prospect/Marayong Asking Price
    upload_2016-10-2_11-45-22.png

    Penrith / Emu Plains/ Jaimsontown Asking Price
    upload_2016-10-2_11-47-6.png
     
    Phantom and MTR like this.
  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,755
    Location:
    My World
    That is interesting so that means an extra $30-60K profit to be made today. Its like everything you can not pick exactly the entry or the exit of any cycle as long as you make money and are not left holding the baby at peak. I pretty much doubled my money and reinvested it in Melb market.

    I am learning from others on PC that my strategy is not perfect but its what works for me and my personality/risk. I also aware that others are doing what works for them and making money their way.
     
    Perthguy and RetireRich101 like this.
  18. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    2,701
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    I went to a few open houses in Baulkham Hills area yesterday and talked to a few agents.

    One of the houses had a long queue of 30-40 people on the first open and it is now listed as 'Under offer' already.

    Good houses are selling very fast and agents are revising prices upwards on the spot. Not so good houses are taking 2-3 weeks unless there's a case of non-serious vendor or unrealistic expectations. Some vendors now even pull the properties off the market after seeing the demand as they are afraid to sell and then regret later.

    All this is thanks to low holding costs, improving rental yields, slow down of new builds and new school year approaching.

    Bulk of buyers on the North shore or Northwest come from Western sydney post codes who are upgrading to better suburbs/better schools and using equity from their existing Western Sydney homes/investments.

    Those who bought their first properties in Parramatta region are now heading to Carlingford, Baulkham Hills and even The Ponds. Its funny but on a per square meter, The Ponds is now more expensive than Carlingford.

    Just like last year, things will slow down in about 2-3 weeks from now and will pick up again in May 2017.

    Anyone holding a property in regions that have word 'North' in them should continue to hold them.
     
    ej89, Sackie, ashish1137 and 2 others like this.
  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,755
    Location:
    My World

    Good to hear this type of info from someone on the ground.
     
    standtall likes this.
  20. Cia

    Cia Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    148
    Location:
    Adelaide