The Property Graph Thread

Pete Wargent ‏@PeteWargent Apr 14
ABS 5671.0 Property investment loans have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau #ausbiz

 

ANZ_Research ‏@ANZ_Research 1m1 minute ago
The backlog of construction work continues to be supported by the high level of dwelling starts #ausecon #property





Stephen KoukoulasVerified account‏@TheKouk
Stephen Koukoulas Retweeted ANZ_Research
Fantastic chart shows that construction will be very strong for some time to come



Cameron Kusher ‏@cmkusher 2m2 minutes ago
Cameron Kusher Retweeted Stephen Koukoulas
I think it is more likely that a large chunk of recently approved won't get built this cycle


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I think this is relevant here.

Kevin07, huh?

 

I'm not a fan of either side tbh (never liked Kevin fwiw).

But it does take two to tango, so I'd say the current indebtedness of the government is a result of numerous factors, as an example -

Peter Costello's five most 'profligate' decisions as treasurer cost the budget $56bn a year

Factors like that - and an absence on both sides of a real desire to curb public spending - does nothing for the Government's books.

 

That's why I put up the budget blowout from the Libs too.

They're both unable to deliver the spoonful of sugar.

 

LOL, I think whoever did those are underestimating the deficits for 2017 and 2018, they should be increasing not decreasing.

Obviously the other AAA rated countries are doing something right, especially Canada which is also a commodity economy like ours, perhaps we should just follow their effective policy making.

 

they have increased them....a lot....

 

I think that spending forecast for 2017-19 is incredibly unrealistic!

Unless, of course, hardline policies on negative gearing, multinational tax review, and other revenue-raising policies were enacted. It cant just be able reducing public spending. Surely it is about getting the right people and companies to pay better fair shares of tax revenue to operate in this market.

 

Pete Wargent ‏@PeteWargent 1h1 hour ago
March 2016: Inner Sydney vacancy rates at tightest level since March 2014 at 1.3 per cent (REINSW) #ausbiz

 

Caution!!
At first I thought Newcastle area looked terrible. Then I realised the time series is plotted backwards... you need to read each area from right to left to be chronological..

 

Actually no idea why I did that. Might reverse next month

 

I was being facetious, lest not obvious

 

Where's Darwin and Hobart ?

 

Country towns.

 

ANZ_Research ‏@ANZ_Research 12m12 minutes ago
ANZ-Property Council survey suggests the outlook for the housing sector continues to soften

 

Softening construction is a good thing if you already own...

 

Now this is where things get interesting. One says that construction is still booming, whereas the other says it is about to fall. From what I see on the ground in Sydney, it is very much still booming construct - apartments everywhere!

This IMO is probably the most concerning graph. Housing prices are driven by access to credit, and this clearly shows that NSW is experiencing falls in housing finance thanks to APRA et al. Meanwhile, you've got this being published in Domain:


A fall that isn't necessarily large and may not be of concern to the majority of investors, but certainly significant enough to spook those who bought recently.

Also of note: The last time we had a contract in finance/price this fast and hard was in '03 and '08. Would be interesting to know if they had similar construction booms at the time.

 

What's so concerning?

 

There is potential for further falls, given tightening credit, increased supply and slower income growth