The Property Graph Thread

Was that quote saying that he predicted the GFC back in 1995? I find this ludicrous, since the drivers for the boom (and subsequent bust) were put in place in the early 2000's, such as low interest rates after the dotcom crash, rapid acceleration of the derivatives market, etc

 

Just saw this on Facebook. Not a graph, but the worlds population has doubled in 50 years. Nevertheless, here it is - half of the people are represented in black (sparsely populated) and the other half in yellow (dense).

 

No, that quote is not saying that he predicted GFC in 1995. List of Keen's papers:

1. Keen, S (1995) Finance and economic breakdown: modelling Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 17(4)4: 607–635
2. Keen, S (2006) The Lily and the Pond. Interview reported by the Evans Foundations, at The lily & the pond | Evatt Foundation
3. Keen, S (2008) Why did I see the financial crisis coming and “they” didn’t? Analysis, November 20, 2008, on http://www.compareshares.com.au/keen04.php
4. Keen, S. and B. Chapman (2006) Hic Rhodus, Hic Salta! Profit in a dynamic model of the Monetary Circuit, Storia del Pensiero Economico 2: 139-156.

The economic modelling that he does, spans much more than sydney's property market. Reducing his peer acclaimed academic work and reputation on a timing issue in one asset class in one city speaks more about the critics than his work. Irrational exuberance of market, powered by cheap credit does not render his assessment of fundamentals wrong. History will invariably catch - up always has:
The hard history of easy money

 

Mark, OK its not a property graph, but its a World Happiness Index

Australia number 9

 

Boom time for the people working in resi housing too.

From ANZ Research.

 

From @petewargent again

 

Thanks Pete - and Mark

 

That must be covering for a big drop in resi building employment in WA too.

A lot of project builders have let a lot of people go. AGP and WBN are merging since their staff and workload is so small.

 

From Shane Oliver.

With the comment - "momentum in Syd and Melb home prices likely to slow further. Looking at a cycle something like this"



EDIT

From ANZ Research -

 

I froth over graphs.

I've just included two - one of them is a little out-dated (2014 but we all sort of know that Sydney and Melbourne have shot up).

 

Did he actually do that? I assume he didnt buy again

 

From memory he said he would and that he would rent.

 

Yeah, I think he sold just before his predicted price crash - then prices went up over 30% or something?

 

Where can i find the most accurate vacancy rate by suburb ? Sqmresearch?

 

ANZ_Research ‏@ANZ_Research 1m1 minute ago
Housing investor finance commitments and house prices are both stabilising




ANZ_Research ‏@ANZ_Research 1m1 minute ago
RBA rate cuts implied by market pricing looks overdone #ausecon @ANZ_Research





CommSec‏@CommSec 3h3 hours ago

The average new home loan fell by a record $15,200 to $357,200 in February; record 4.1% fall for Feb month




Moody's InvestorsSvc ‏@MoodysInvSvc 13h13 hours ago
Affordability of investment properties are at the lowest level on record rise in risks for property investors #RMBS

 

Business Insider AUSVerified account‏@BIAUS
The explosion of foreign money in Australia's property market, in one stunning chart http://trib.al/ICfPUzh

 

Jobs growth at odds with rates outlook

With an accompanying graph, also by Garry Shilson-Josling.

 

Link may or may not open depending on whims of paywall.

McGrath shares in trading halt as it reviews its prospectus forecasts

 

From @FinancialReview on twitter -

RBA warns apartment 'mismatch' could hit prices, rents

(Again paywall might be an issue - I don't have a sub and I can read it, but...)