Crypto The problem with crypto investing

Discussion in 'Other Asset Classes' started by charttv, 26th Feb, 2021.

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  1. Onyx_OCAU

    Onyx_OCAU Well-Known Member

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    This thread has turned into one man getting off his chest summarising everything negative about crypto. It's entertaining to read, especially on this a property discussion forum; because just the other day very similar arguements were construed for property as being more than a roof over one's head and becoming an investment vehicle and store of value - and the harm to society that this mentality over the past 100 years has caused. That thread was shut down quick by the admins of this forum because it was anti-property. The same **** posting idealogy but about crypto and it's all gravy. Let the hatred and vitriol flow out. Your blood pressure would be better for it... :p
     
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  2. charttv

    charttv Well-Known Member

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    plenty of pro-crypto threads and posts in this forum. None of it is original, just rehashing of the same tired coiner arguments. The shills in this forum are very un-original, no sport really.

    If crypto is everything it is claimed to be, why would anyone be concerned with criticism from the haters? They are just jealous, right? If people wanna have fun being poor, then that's their choice.

    Look at the MSM spreading all this FUD, what would they know!?
    How Bitcoin's vast energy use could burst its bubble

    Electricity needed to mine bitcoin is more than used by 'entire countries'
     
  3. Laker

    Laker Well-Known Member

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    LOL! Have a feeling your comments are going to age like fine milk!
     
  4. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    Some crypto advocates exhibit cult behavior - this is undeniable. Being nascent and the possibility of making easy money means the ratio of rational to irrational investors is rather low. Their absolute belief in crypto as the be-all-end-all is bloody annoying but to be honest I've seen this behavior in other investment asset classes as well albeit to a lesser extent.

    Crypto investing = gambling until it gains mainstream adoption - this could be a few years in the making or it may never get there - who knows.

    A decade from now Crypto will be taught in schools either as the greatest financial revolution in recent history or the greatest cluster **** in recent history.

    Now that's out of the way, if you see a bull run (doesn't matter what market) and understand the risks involved - why on earth would any investor not give it a go? - Obviously risk management is key but that is true for any type of investment. #alleggsinonebasket #dyor
     
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  5. charttv

    charttv Well-Known Member

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    more FUD. seems to be quite the weekend for it. particularly in the noticeable absence of any major Tether prints.
    Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
     
  6. Laker

    Laker Well-Known Member

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    It’s definitely dead. It crashed 25% to a 3 week low after a 80% rise over the previous 2 months. Everyone panic sell! It was fun but it’s now over!
     
  7. Beginner1

    Beginner1 Well-Known Member

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    I have fairly recently bought cryptocurrency and am enjoying monitoring what is happening in that space (much to my initial surprise!). It seems to me that people buy cryptocurrency for a variety of reasons (to make money; because they believe in the potential of a project, they enjoy the technology, they like decentralised finance, lack of government control; ideological reasons etc).

    It is certainly more volatile than other investments but there is also the potential for significant gains. I think people should generally be able to invest as they please (as long as they are not violating laws etc). Live and let live.
     
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  8. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Step 1: learn the difference between investing and speculating.
     
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  9. charttv

    charttv Well-Known Member

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    agreed. I also think people should be warned when a ponzi scam is misrepresented as not being a ponzi scam. Many regulators agree on this.
     
  10. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    lol, I walked into that one didn't I. Now back to speculating, I mean investing...
     
  11. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    I suspect it'll remain a "ponzi" scheme for the short to medium term.

    Line in sand, at what point does it become, if at all, a legitimate asset class? I don't see governments adopting it anytime soon , if ever. Projects like digital yuan inherit many of the crytpocurrency characteristics but with the added downside that issuing government can track every single coin/cent.

    Regardless of where Crypto ends up in terms of "monetary" value, I for one am excited about the sheer amount of innovation in the FinTech space.
     
  12. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    FinTech: inventing new ways to part people from their money

    To become a store of value, it needs to be trusted, secure and relatively stable. You don't want to "store" your wealth in an asset that regularly drops in value by very large percentages. You also want to be pretty careful about an asset which can be lost or stolen because of some technical mistake or problem (losing your keys!).

    To become a medium of exchange - you also need it to have low volatility. As a merchant, there is no way I'm selling something for a specific value only to find that by the time the money hits my bank account, it's worth significantly less than what I thought it was. If I agree on a contract price for something, I need to have the confidence that I'm actually getting that value from the medium of exchange we use to settle the contract.

    The trick is that with most other mediums of exchange (particularly fiat currencies), there are central banks whose job it is to ensure that the value of those currencies are relatively stable. As far as I'm aware, the main crypto currencies don't have that (intentionally so - no government oversight) - so there is no inherent mechanism to induce stability in prices.

    Using crypto currencies might be great when things work well. But what happens when things don't go well? People rely on governments and the legal system to protect them in an orderly society. If they choose to use crypto currencies to remove themselves from that government oversight - they then can't expect to get any support when things go wrong. There is a reason why it's called the "wild west" - it is intended by design to be lawless.

    Right now, the only real value in most of these currencies is as a speculative get-rich-quick asset - and this alone makes them pretty much useless for anything else.
     
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  13. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    I think some people are their own worst enemies in life. Your attitudes and the way you look at things make a big difference in wealth and life in general. Being so close-minded to anything and not considering possibilities is a real handicap, and probably is related to IQ, wealth/education level and past experiences.

    Is it glass half-full or half-empty? All I see is that bitcoin has been in one big bull market for 10+ years. Whether you believe in the tech, or if it will one day be the global reserve currency, or even just see the investment potential, the opportunity is there if you see it.

    Conversely, if you think this bitcoin up-trend will end soon, and it's all a ponzi scheme, then stay away from it. Why not short it? It makes more sense to do that than waste your time making endless posts about how bitcoin is a loser. At least you'll be paid to see it fall.

    Attached are the differences between investing and speculating. Yes you can invest in bitcoin. Just like I can also speculate on any other asset out there including gold, currency and our beloved property.

    Like I said before, close-mindedness is your real enemy not bitcoin.
     

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  14. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Has it?

    2021-03-02_8-20-18.png

    Nov 2013 $1,068 ... Apr 2015 $219 ... that's a 79% drop in value over 19 months

    Dec 2017 $18,640 ... Dec 2018 $3,263 ... that's an 82% drop in value over 12 months

    Jul 2019 $12,335 ... Mar 2020 $5465 ... that's a 56% drop in value over 9 months

    Jan 2021 $40,519 ... Jan 2021 $30,534 ... that's a 25% drop in value over 17 days

    Feb 2021 $57,128 ... Mar 2021 $45,092 ... that's a 21% drop in value over 7 days

    If all you're looking at is the start price and the end price - I can see how you conclude it's all been one big bull market - but that doesn't tell the full story.

    The level of volatility in Bitcoin is insane. Yes, you can make money speculating here. You can also lose a lot of it - very very quickly.

    Hint: any asset where the instruction is "only put in what you are prepared to lose" is not an investment - it is a gamble.

    There's no way I'd short such a volatile asset - that's an even quicker way to get wiped out than simply HODL.

    At the end of the day - this is an investment forum. Anyone insisting that crypto is in any shape or form an "investment" and anything other than a speculative gamble - is not understanding why we are here and might be best off on another site dedicated to ramping their bets.
     
    Last edited: 2nd Mar, 2021
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  15. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    The desperation of Crypto enthusiasts to convince others is telling as is the yearning for this "asset" to come through for them. Classic greater fool. "Please....please make it so! I really need this!". But look, Wall St has found a way to make a buck from this, see...its real! And Elon put sweet FA of Tesla's balance sheet into BTC....to da moon!

    I've 60x my net wealth since March 2011 by investing/operating real business that a simpleton like me can understand. Unfortunately I am one of those "closed minded", "glass half full" types, likely with insufficient IQ, wealth, education to understand this "asset class". I'll just have to trudge along as best I can and "have fun staying poor".
     
  16. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    The thing is that most of us who have been around a while remember that this has all happened before.

    Do you remember the "new economy" from the dot.com era 20 years ago? The arguments as to why it was "different this time" and "the old rules no longer apply" are largely identical to those used by crypto spruikers today.

    Any time the argument moves to "mindset" rather than actually explaining how and why an asset class or investment strategy or whatever is a sound investment, should ring alarm bells. This is spruiker brainwashing 101 - it's no longer about the fundamentals, it's about the vision.
     
  17. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Right, so shouldn't you also measure lows to peaks as well? Would you like to take the time to post the % increase in value for a fair comparison?And how each drop in value bottoms out at a higher level than the previous drop?

    Higher highs and higher lows is a definition of a bull trend my friend.

    Follow the money. If CEOs of nasdaq companies, ETF funds like Blackrock, universities and state governments are invested in it, the first thing you should be asking is "what have they seen in bitcoin that maybe I haven't?"

    Or are we all kidding ourselves that we know best and everyone else doesn't. And if that's the case, what company are you the CEO of?
     
    Last edited: 2nd Mar, 2021
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  18. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    LOL - if you use that argument, then the ASX has been in a bull market since it was formed in the 80s and the Australian property market has been in a bull market since the 1950s.

    "Everyone else is doing it, so I should too" ... aka FOMO.

    You still haven't produced a single coherent argument as to why this is anything other than pure speculation and any different to any other speculative investment.
     
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  19. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Why should I? I'm not here to convince anyone of bitcoin. If you don't believe in it don't invest in it.
     
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  20. Lindsay_W

    Lindsay_W Well-Known Member

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    I was hoping there would be someone who could take that argument to the OP, I would think it is the perfect opportunity to do so, if there is one.