The PChat score ... The king is dead , long live the king

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by See Change, 3rd Jul, 2015.

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  1. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Last peak in Brisbane was in 2009 . In most places prices went down and are now coming back up . Some places are still below their 2009 peak . People who bought a couple of years ago are looking a reasonable growth ( though not as much as if they'd bought in Sydney ) , so to to say no real growth is actually a misrepresentation as it comes down to when you bought in that period .

    If you buy in regionals at the moment you will probably do ok , but IMHO , not as well as if you buy in Brisbane . Similar to Brisbane vs Sydney two years ago .

    In 2013 we covered our bets and bought in Sydney and Brisbane . Brisbane up 10 %. , Sydney up around 50 % .

    I'm expecting similar for Brisbane in next 2-3 years , but that's just my opinion , but it's one I've acted on in the last months .

    Cliff
     
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  2. Bryan Loughnan

    Bryan Loughnan Well-Known Member

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    Agree that timing is a bit part of buying property - it doesn't matter where.

    People who bought in Sydney 2-3 years ago have done fantastically - but as a general market - it did absolutely nothing for the 8-10 years before that.

    You can certainly do a lot worse than purchasing in Brisbane at the moment.
     
  3. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    It depends where you bought in Sydney prior to that , the properties we bought in 2009 - 11 had all moved up prior to the current boom , also partially because we had bought well . My niece bought a unit in Coogee in 2006 and that has gone up steadily since .

    From my experience since our first badly timed buy in 1988 through to what we've done since , timing IS the most important component to turning investing into a consistently profitable process . The whole point of this thread is to help that .

    All of the examples you've quoted only emphasis the importance of good timing over bad timing .

    Cliff
     
    Last edited: 21st Jul, 2015
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  4. Shadow

    Shadow Well-Known Member

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    I think Perth will stagnate for another year or so, and begin its next growth cycle in 2017.

    I'm expecting Perth's median house price to approach $1M sometime around 2021.
     
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  5. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep....that is why I am holding in Perth..and will look to buy back in again in the next 2 years....it still has very good population growth.

     
  6. Sonamic

    Sonamic Well-Known Member

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    Brisbane still a firm favourite with Adelaide showing some promise?
     
  7. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Hope so, that's where I've mostly laid my bets.
     
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  8. D.T.

    D.T. Specialist Property Manager Business Member

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    In Perth there's 2 things,
    1) rezoning has been turboed which means every man and his dog develops. This has bumped up the dwelling supply.
    2) staff in mining industry on big bucks have moved back home overseas / interstate. This reduces the demand side of the equation.

    Both of these have combined to produce the highest vacancy rate ever. Some investors are starting to sell their properties.

    What do you think will be the impetus for the next growth spurt?
     
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  9. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Don't forget Melbourne , but it's already moved strongly in places , so percentage wise has less to go till it peaks, though might outshine Brisbane short term . Personally I think it will and it may be well be that Brisbanes strongest movement will be after melbourneites feel Melbourne has peaked

    Opinion seems to be Sydney has peaked and some talk about it coming off the boil , certainly out west .

    Cliff
     
  10. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    My recollection is that Perth has previously missed out on an east coast boom .

    Is that correct guys ?

    I think sash is working on the assumption that everything tends to go up each cycle.

    Perth is a long way away , is more self contained . Less likely for hoards of Sydney and Melbourne investors depending on it .

    Im fairly certain that in one previous cycle Rockhampton missed out on a lot of growth but that was pre Internet .

    Cliff
     
  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I think we may see Melb peak in 2016/17
     
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  12. Coota9

    Coota9 Well-Known Member

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    Note with interest that the last time both Brisbane & Adelaide outperformed the combined capital city market was in 2007 in which Brisbane moved first followed by Adelaide.
    Both these markets have only performed better than the combined capital's once in the last 10yrs.
    Not sure if this will play out with this growth cycle but there has been a lot of debate over Adelaide and when it will move.
     

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  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Perth market boomed during 2012-2014, but not high end stuff.
    Boom started by FHB sub 500k and developers started building again and offloading. Million dollar+ properties have still not recovered from last crash 2007

    MTR:)
     
  14. D.T.

    D.T. Specialist Property Manager Business Member

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    Only by people who either have a personal vendetta or don't invest at all.
     
  15. Coota9

    Coota9 Well-Known Member

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    I know you cant look at past data to determine future performance..blah blah but it would point to a peak in Adelaide in 2017..
    Its all crystal balling stuff I know but will be interesting how it plays out!!
     
  16. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Both have underperformed since 2007 no doubt, totally different and unrelated markets you would think, but they seem to follow a similar trajectory.
    It will be interesting to see if it continues.
     
  17. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    If you took out BB's posts , you'd halve the number of negative posts about Adelaide .

    Cliff
     
  18. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    I think he's actually contemplating buying there again....in the near future. I think there has been a subtle change in his opinion of the market.
     
  19. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Hadn't noticed . While he can do interesting posts , I haven't read any recently .

    Cliff
     
  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Fortunately we have had some great growth in Perth, Melb, Syd over the last 3 years.

    I would say Syd has been the best performer, as boom is still going.
    Perth stopped after 24 months, Melb still going but I expect slow down next year.

    Whether Adelaide booms over the next couple of years, I have no idea?? Some been saying this for years, still waiting.

    I will watch this market as I watch other markets, its certainly not time for me to jump in just yet, there are most definitely better markets to play in at the moment.

    Same as Perth is a no go for me at the moment because its the wrong timing, too early.


    MTR:)
     
    Last edited: 4th Oct, 2015
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