VIC The Market has certainly changed direction - Melbourne

If I had 600k I’d be holding out for a trashed cottage block in the inner west. Some in Footscray already have EPRs in the 600s. Whether they sell above that at auction is yet to be seen.

7 Macpherson Street, Footscray, Vic 3011

 

Actually looked at something similar recently. I’d just have no idea how to get it back up to scratch. And the costs involved.

 

This

 

Buy something you can survive in for 2 years. Then start slowly. Paint and carpet bedrooms. Then bathroom. Save kitchen living room/ hall for last and do them together with floorboards.

The outside is where you need to be careful. Try and find boards in good state and if you need a good roof color bond is more affordable than you many think.

 

Schools not important, probably somewhere close to the cbd, think the Northside, although possibly a little further out but easily commutable. Obv 600, doesn’t get you a great deal so I would be ok with an older style apartment. A villa might mean we have to go a bit far out.

 

I’d just get it and figure out how to fix it up as I go, as long as the plumbing and electrics works i’d rough it out for a few years. My budget is nearly half yours so I’m not even going to bother holding out for something like this.

 

Would rather something smaller much closer in. Think smashed avocado-ville.

And just wondering on the general sentiment of whether to buy now or if there will be bargains in 6-12 months.

 

no one has mentioned anything about cladding with the apartments. That issue alone could easily wipe out at least 10-20% of value regardless of market conditions

 

as it stands pretty much the owners have to sue builders/developers/engineers/surveyors, good luck to them. Probably have to take a bigger tragedy like Grenfell for government to cough up more.

I think eventually government will offer low interest loans to the buildings deemed high risk.

 

If someone offered that to me for $600k id buy it.
Assuming its not demolish job.

For the development experts,
You obviously pay extra for tge developability, but if its a ppor, how many years do you consider before any reno costs become part of the price?

Eg no point renovating for a ppor when you are going to move out in 5 years

 

Mustt be a knock down. Not a single photo of the interior. Or underquoted.

 

Yes we live near the border of 4 Primary school zones - 2 of them we'd be happy with (including the one we are in). Not impressed with the other two - not that they are bad schools. Just don't want to be there.

Haven't mentioned this to the missus yet. Will wait and see what happens

 

Agreed. The last 'big flat' before that was around 10 years, from 1992 - 2002 (give or take a year, depending on suburb).

Since then we've had (pretty much) 15-17 years of growth (with a few short 2 year breaks in there).

Given the affordability limits we have hit, makes you wonder if we'll have another big flat. No-one really knows.

The strategy of waiting for the 'start of recovery' to start makes sense. Although, while on one hand property does move slowly, the booms are also the shortest part of the cycle (1-2 years where the bulk of the growth happens) and the data is always 6 months late.

@MTR How would one determine when the flat is over and it's a good time to buy?

The only way I can imagine is being in regular contact with agents and waiting for a 6 month trend (to avoid any short blips / false alarms). Possibly also use SQM free data to look for a solid 3 month and 6 month rolling growth figures and/or stock on market and/or vacancy.

 

No one can time the market perfectly, but its not hard to work put what is happening

market sentiment starts changing, volume starts to shrink, clearance rates increase. Its more of wait until you see the signs. PC can be very useful. We were all over it when it was booming, just had to make sure you worked out the markets that were just being talked up, not hard to do, a couple of phone calls

Also i play in more than 1 market so its not that hard to pick a couple of winners. Since 2013 oz has had at least 4 property booms that I know of.

Once you hear the noise its the networking that is key, got my best deals from real estate agents working with me as I was out of State.

MTR

 

Past cycles may not be a good representation of what to expect this time as we're already in uncharted territory. The current downturn is the worst in nearly 40 years of data, according to CoreLogic. With cash rate 1.5.

"CoreLogic’s daily house price index for 25 February, released yesterday, revealed that dwelling value losses across Australia’s five biggest capital city markets have punched through 9%:"