VIC The Market has certainly changed direction - Melbourne

I watched this auction live online and the property was almost passed in. You could tell Chris (the auctioneer) was doing everything he could to avoid that, even telling the attendees him and his fellow agent just bought a corner block down the street and that should give them confidence to bid.

 

You’re Obviously trolling, but given no-one wants to live in olde Berwick/Harkaway you won’t be interested in this for $13.5M.
181 Harkaway Road, Harkaway, Vic 3806
It’s not 1000m but a V8 supercar driver with the lap record on your own go-kart track is pretty cool! I’m guessing he helicoptered in.

 

Lol I’m glad I sold two in 2017. Right at the Peak to some sucker

 

went to auction today just out of curiousity which passed in on vendor bid of 900k. I asked agent how much it would have got at peak and he reckons 1.1m but vendor isn't worried if can't sell will just take it off the market.

I'd say houses down 20% yoy and units down 10% yoy. will this continue? China unleashed massive stimulus in january, which has stabilised crashing stock markets last year. impact on syd/melb real estate???

 

Ha. Wonder how much the vendor blew on marketing, auction?

Expensive way to spend a weekend.

 

Its very interesting, would you believe the psyche of some investors where they state its not a loss unless you must sell, this is delusional thinking.

Clearly many may not have a choice.... why? life happens, holding forever may not be possible and by the way it may not be the smartest thing to do. Bleeding and servicing debt is not my idea of a wonderful lifestyle.

This together with financial squeeze, where interest only loans will now convert back to principal and interest, as I said before tack on 40% on repayments of loans.... ouch

 

Does anyone have an idea on what suburbs are feeling the most pain in Melb, perhaps too broad? but curious to know??

 

The old "Not a loss if I don't sell-- seller sets price" etc etc etc chestnut. Makes sense if it's about ego, makes none if it's about deploying capital where it is most effective.

 

By the way who are the 3 that voted STRONG UPTURN

Slap on the wrist with a feather

 

Basically upper end of the market. Price seems to be the issue. Bayside and inner getting smashed. Cheaper stuff holding up better. >1mil seems to be where it really drops off.

Ironically, the stuff that is supposed to hold best. Blue chip areas, freestanding homes.

This year will be a cracker (the bad type) for Melb I think, it's gaining on Sydney fast. Trying to be patient and hold off buying a ppor.

 

Just places where families wanted to buy in the 1-2mil bracket. Which are basically inner east and north. Some patches in the west. It’s a credit game hurting the market.

On the other hand. Lots more people looking in Jan feb than in oct - December. Which I guess is reflected in the 55% clearance rates last couple weeks. Will be interesting to see today’s numbers.

Other thing you will see. If something goes on market in the 900k-1.3mil range and someone makes and offer near the vendors price it is just getting taken. I’ve inspected 3 places at first sat open that have sold before the end of the week in the listed range. So if the money is in offer vendors are taking it.

Other interesting note is that banks are putting the best deals I’ve seen in years for money out there. Royal commission over. This won’t stop decline but the pent up demand of families previously priced out might be starting to show.

They have tighter wallet strings than investors, so things will be very much price sensitive.

 

Thanks, interesting times.

When fear sets in people do nothing?? sort of, as they wonder how low will it go.

 

Good. Someone to play catch the falling knife with. I’ll buy this year. I currently have 0 debt and need a new PPOR. Gotta take some risks.

 

Stay out of bayside mate, thats my turf. Or you'll find yourself in a falling knife fight!

 

i went to the next auction close by the same agent was holding and that passed as well. The agent kept doing a sneaky thing where he places the vendor bid whilst standing and whispering next to a buyer in the crowd to make it look like someone placed an actual bid. The 2nd house was in the affordable inner west segment quoting 700-750k for 430sqm. surprised didn't even get a lowball bid. Should have underquoted at least would have got the ball rolling.

 

All buyers are PPOR people. They can’t wait for the market like an investor.

They need a bedroom for a kid to sleep in. It is those people that will be needed if we get a soft-ish landing.

The real numbers are at the 400-800k market we down 5-10%. Over 1mil it’s 15-20%

I think we will see a bit more drop and then stabilize if the economy holds. If the economy does not don’t bother with a crystal ball.

One thing I would say to people here.

This is the be greedy when others are fearful time. I’m just not sure how far into it we are!!!!

 

I’m not a bayside player. But if I was I would be shopping now and buying mid year. Bayside ran the hardest and is getting the biggest whack.

Outside of Chinese areas like glen waverley which have their own qwerks.

 

inner east cheaper segment was tanking 2nd half of last year but has rebounded now. The way things were going everything was crashing then sudden rebound globally in January. imo was due to the massive stimulus injection which came out of China central bank. If China didn't stimulate I reckon would be getting 2 bedroom apartments in St kilda for <400 by now. I think I remember one off Grey st asking 400-420 last year. was sitting on the market for months and couldn't sell.

 

Yeah mid year is about when I was thinking. My personal forecast is there will be a good 12-18 months more of falls, but I'm not too worried about timing absolute bottom. I will jump on the right property.

 

One thing for certain you can never pick the bottom.

If you are an investor then I would say wait and watch, because there are so many unknowns that can dramatically impact on a flat/falling market and it could get a lot worse, we just don't know. However, flat/falling markets don't last 1-2 months, they can go on for as long as 7 years. I think last down turn in Melb went for about 2 years?

. economy?
. election?
. credit squeeze, still unfolding?