The hardest thing to get right

Discussion in 'Investor Stories & Showcase' started by See Change, 16th May, 2021.

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  1. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    @standtall

    For me , the hardest thing to get right is when to sell .

    Ok some say never sell , but we’ve been successfully buying and selling and doing that has often enabled us to be cashed up and able to buy when others haven’t and some of those buys have been our best .

    We sold before booms peaked , after booms peaked , close to the peak and in just one occasion in Sydney at a peak . But we’ve almost always made money because we’ve bought well .

    we’ve bought at the bottom of a market , in the flat period after a bottoms occurred , in the early stages of a move up , and on quite a few occasions , just as a markets taking of .

    what we’ve only done once ( first PPOR before we knew what we were doing ) is buy at a peak , or in the middle of a boom

    usually the really crazy bits of a boom are at the end but I’ve certainly seen booms get to the point where everyone says it’s crazy and the it keeps on going .

    For me Sydney is well past . even if I thought Sydney could go up another 20 % would I buy there now .

    As an investor , no way .

    The renovators special we bought a few years ago for 1.15 is now worth in the high 2’s and a meadowbank ( up market McMansions) , which would cost under 1 sold for 4.5 just around the corner .

    It’s crazy.

    Brisbane on the other hand ...

    My take is that after ten years of underperforming , the movement in brisbane , is welcome relief . Places close the middle have seen healthy growth in places in the last hand full of years . The time to buy there was 3 - 5 years ago . We could have , but due to cash flow , decided to go outer rim , which is just starting to wake up .

    Personally I wouldn’t be selling centrally in brisbane , unless I had other things to do with the money . But the people selling now for a profit are able to do it because they bought well .

    Booms tend so run for several years so as we’re really only 6 months into a generalised movement my gut tells me is got at least 2-4 years to go .

    tou can still buy 3 bedroom entry levels houses in brisbane for under 300 down to around 250 .

    sydney , 2770 , be lucky to pick something up for around 550 .

    typically the bottom ends of most capital cities end up around the same price

    So is now the time to buy in Sydney . IMHO . No

    Is now the time to sell in Sydney . If you’re into timing markets , I’d be happy to sell now .

    Is now the peak of the market in Sydney ? WTFWIK ... but it’s a lot closer to the peak that other places and most definitely brisbane .
    is now a time to buy in brisbane ? If I was buying to time the market at the moment I’d be up there buying as much as I could .

    Cliff
     
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  2. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I am currently doing both....as have been cashed up for a while now

    Its a good time to buy and sell, and there are quite a few markets where this makes sense
     
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  3. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    I think there are different philosophies but they are all useful as long as they are working to suit individual investor needs and circumstances.

    Personally, I would never buy in 2770 or go anywhere other than inner to middle ring Brisbane. I don’t plan to sell and have only sold once in 2018 when I offloaded couple of Sydney units to put money into my Sydney PPOR upgrade. That decision alone put me so much ahead in my journey that I can’t imagine any other way to be able to afford my current home in Sydney. Buying a decent PPOR in an established suburb 30 min drive from CBD is no easy task while continuing to build an investment portfolio.

    From 2014 to now, my equity in real estate I hold has gone up around 10 times (no joking here) and around 5times after I take my PPOR out of calculations. Thanks to the power of leverage and the market cycles. My only philosophy has been buying only places that I would want to live in myself and have only invested in places with owner occupier appeal. This did mean less frequent purchases due to bigger deposits required but in the hindsight owner occupier stocks all over Australia have performed really well and so has my portfolio.
     
  4. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    @standtall , maybe I was being too obscure re my point.

    I have no problems with people buying and holding and Buying centrally . We’ve done well with that in the past , and will again .

    While I was talking about the difficulty in knowing when to sell , in your case never , so that’s not an issue , my real point was that IMHO , it’s easier to know when to buy .

    Outside buying a PPOR , or having specific value adding / development aims , as an investment in terms of capital gain over the next 5-10 years , IMHO , Sydney really doesn’t make much sense at while brisbane does .

    cliff
     
  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Syd makes no sense, but it still keeps rising... something has to give:eek:
     
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  6. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    There’s only land at some fringes and people still want to live here, (diversified economy, good weather) thus the high prices. Loads of migrants move here and they want to buy homes for family security. They might even choose to settle in the west because they have their community there, pushing up those prices…
    Meanwhile, other people say enough is enough and end up move to Queensland mostly as it’s cheaper and has nicer weather. But it’s not as many as the number of migrants buying here. Plus, it’s kids moving out of home. Many have the support from the bank of mum and dad in helping them to buy something.

    HK, New York, San Fran, London, and I would guess Beijing and Shanghai… over the Long Term, property prices in some cities will keep performing….
     
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  7. Firefly99

    Firefly99 Well-Known Member

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    I think to depends on when you need to $$ or have some other plan for it. For me now there’s not point selling as proceeds would sit in bank making 0.0001% or something stupid - literally depreciating when inflation is taken into account.
     
  8. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Imho Sydney makes perfect sense.

    The buyer demand in Sydney for the most wanted properties in the most wanted suburbs greatly outweighs the supply available. And Sydney has more than enough people to afford it.

    I don't understand why people say Sydney prices are crazy. Why is it crazy?

    The most 'crazy' prices in Sydney happens to be in the highest demand suburbs for the highest demand properties in the highest demand city in Australia. Where Australia itself is one of the best countries in the world to live in.

    Current Sydney prices makes perfect sense to me.
     
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  9. spoon

    spoon Well-Known Member

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    Yes, people flock to big cities. It's the opportunities offered. Look at the history of these cities, eg., New York, it has proven migrants like to go to them over decades and centuries. Despite living conditions often worsened.
     
  10. oracle

    oracle Well-Known Member

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    For me I think if you have bought well (quality asset) and have a high degree of confidence the asset will be worth more in future even though it might look expensive or overbought now the decision to sell is easy. Never!

    Reasons being it's not easy to find another quality asset that is of similar quality or better. So you are taking a risk there by switching. Secondly, the switching costs (selling costs, taxes, buying costs) you would need to really be buying at a heavy discount and hope the market agrees with you by pushing the prices up to come out ahead than actually doing nothing.

    (PS: The above thought applies to all types of assets (property or shares) )

    Cheers,
    Oracle.
     
  11. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Personally I wouldn't sell unless selling will help you move forward with your goals in some way. Usually for me selling is about locking in great gains with a solid plan in mind to reinvest profits with medium to high expectations that where the money is going to, on the balance of probabilities will yield you a better return than the investment it came from over the next 3 to 5 years.
     
    Last edited: 17th May, 2021
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  12. thunderstrike888

    thunderstrike888 Well-Known Member

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    Why? Some of the best opportunities for growth in these areas especially when you see very medium houses 3 bedrooms in Kellyville sell for almost $2M and Schofields/Marsden Park selling for $1.2M+

    Some places offer extremely good value for free standing houses and when suburbs are surrounded by $1M+ suburbs well the bottom will also lift. In saying that you ain't getting nothing for $550k these days and if you do its rundown and pretty much uninhabitable.

    Money to be made in these places. I've made millions in these suburbs and I aint selling out of them anytime soon. I see these places going to $850-$1M in the not too distant future especially if Sydney keeps booming and especially after St Marys becomes a major transport hub and business centre.

    Some suburbs in 2770 already hitting $1M. (i.e) Minchinbury and the others are creeping up week by week. Some very strong sales prices now.
     
    Last edited: 17th May, 2021
  13. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Because Sydney is Not jsut Bondi or Bellevue Hill or Lower North Shore

    I hold assets in Western Sydney

    They were down 15-20% up until 2020

    The last 18 months means they are up 2/4% from their 2016/2017 purchase price.


    So in fact in the last 5 years some parts of the market in Western Sydney is certain pockets has done absolutely nothing.

    I f you look at the news you will think otherwise.

    Sydney is a market you have to understand well. my WSyd holding are 10 years holding waiting for the airport to go in. Than we reevaluate them. so we have about 5 years to go.
     
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  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    brilliant, good for you:)
     
  15. thunderstrike888

    thunderstrike888 Well-Known Member

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    You happened to buy at the absolute last peak. Your timing was just off mate. Many on here have been investing in the west since all the haters were around. Not many haters of the west around these days. They've become Western Sydney lovers.

    Its the same as any market buying in the absolute peak will take longer to recover. There are many guys retired from their western Sydney purchases especially if done 10+ years ago. Most of them would be paying themselves off and they are just riding the current wave.

    In saying that just hold them. Once the airport is done its going to go off again. Ppl these days dont have long term vision on potential. A lot of new guys want instant returns within 2-3 years in property which unless trying to time it exactly wont work.

    There has been huge influx of buyers in the West. Firstly due to simply price point and secondly ppl have come to realise that even the worst suburbs eventually gentrify. I'm still laughing at guys that advised me I'm making the mistake of my life buying in St Marys back in the day. Hilarious.
     
    Last edited: 18th May, 2021
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  16. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Give us time, we'll conquer all pushing the undesirables away! :p
     
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  17. boganfromlogan

    boganfromlogan Well-Known Member

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    4 years before the Olympics, when all the infrastructure has been announced and priced in, when the impact on suburbs in 4152 (my area of interest) and 4131 have been maximised, when people can't afford Sydney and need to move.

    So that would be 2028.

    What was so hard about that?
     
  18. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    I invested in the West for many years.

    My last 2 at the late stage of the market was timed **** to perfection.

    My point is for 4 years WSYD did nothing.

    So its not like Sydney has been booming for years

    In reality since 2016 up until late 2019 it went sideways/ backwards.

    My strategy is keep buying always is.


    The Wsyd properties if sold today are all up with GFS on them they have been CF+ after 12 months when GFs went in.


    never looked back.


    In 2 years Migration will start again in some method or another .

    Who know i dont believe any one can forecast .
     
  19. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    When the QE stops, the bulls%&t stops. As you @See Change have seen before the fundamentals always return. Sydney currently has 2k more listings than in 2016 and that year was 12% up from 2015, and also 10k lower in listings than in 2019 high as of today.

    Listing numbers;
    March 2015 22327
    March 2016 25372
    March 2017 28336
    March 2018 34901
    March 2019 38913
    March 2020 29209
    March 2021 27011
     
    Last edited: 18th May, 2021
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  20. GirlPower

    GirlPower Well-Known Member

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    I agree we moved to QLD . The funny thing is its not actually cheaper to rent here than Sydney. We moved back for a while and were able to rent a house considerably cheaper than the Gold Coast in good school catchments. ( we rented in Carlingford). The public schools here are not amazing and Sydney will always have that advantage as well. I see Sydney continuing to increase especially when the borders open again.