The great deleverage

WattleIdo · 29th Jun, 2019

Jezzah said: ↑

I haven't seen many examples recently, but before the downturn was in full swing (and I was just a lurker here) I recall some users posting statements like "you are just upset you didn't buy 5 years ago." Or "you are jealous you missed out".

So yeah I agree that these days we hear more extreme bearish calls than bullish ones. However from what I see I don't really think anyone here is a "troll".

Both sides are likely to be highly invested or motivated to see an outcome that benefits them and will talk up their own book. I like that there is a good spectrum of views and opinions on property chat as it challenges my views and broadens my understanding of the current environment.
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That would now be 7 years ago now. The equity would still be there even without the borrowing capacity.
But that particular member ended up sellinga whole lot of his 'dogs' - and put the funds in super in his mid fifties and then moved it all from high risk to conservative at just the wrong time so .... if it quacks like a duck and all that.

MTR · 29th Jun, 2019

Woodjda said: ↑

Hey I think predictions on property are notoriously terrible. The Steve Keen types predicting doom for decades are idiots. At the same time there are plenty of "experts" who called the idea of a 15% drop in Sydney as impossible or called the bottom in Perth 2+ years ago which looks similarly idiotic.

In terms of UBS I can't find much from that time. This that I found sounds very reasonable from late 2015. Classifies prices as overvalued but not in extreme bubble territory and that there a possibility of a significant correction in the medium term depending on outside factors like Asian demand. It actually seems pretty accurate:

Sydney house prices 'significantly overvalued' and at risk of drop, UBS says - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
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That reminds me..... an oddie but a goodie.... here we go again

"Ten Reasons Why Economists Always Get It Wrong."

Oliver Shane · 29th Jun, 2019

Jezzah said: ↑

Yeah I share your views on where we are headed.

My guess is that the percentage of people here that benefit from dropping prices is smaller than the same metric taken from the population at large.

I'm not really able to provide a clear picture about likely recession scenarios and what impacts different demographics.

There are so many potential large changes in a large drop that I don't know how I would be affected. Losing my job for a year would suck and I would lose net worth but being debt free I could end up benefiting more if asset prices crash. Then again if there is a bail in then my strategy goes up in flames. Also there's the international investors that will influence the outcome.

In the end increasing prices from here benefits the established players and to an extent some of their children (not all). In my opinion Australians of the future, who greatly outnumber the established players, are unlikely to be better off if we repeat the last 15 years over and over again.
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Indeed. As they say in the military, it’s the unknown unknown risk.

euro73 · 29th Jun, 2019

Oliver Shane said: ↑

Indeed. As they say in the military, it’s the unknown unknown risk.
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The great deleverage

WattleIdo midas touch

MTR Well-Known Member

Oliver Shane Well-Known Member

euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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The great deleverage

WattleIdo midas touch

MTR Well-Known Member

Oliver Shane Well-Known Member

euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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