The great Australian housing bubble creating a generation of poor youth

For that to happen there would have to be a very deep recession or worse with unemployment 10-15%.
In this situation FHBers would not necessarily find it any easier.

 

About 30min walk from station, I also take the light rail after the train (and the train at my time in the morning is 50+ minutes). Plus light rail and train do not line up perfectly to western line so there's a wait period. And then there's a fairly short walk to the office. It's 2 hours door-to-door (I've timed it!). Occasionally is quicker if I get a lift with my partner to the station - but I would be dropped off 20 mins earlier than a train and would be waiting anyway for that time ha.

 

Unemployment+Underemployment is already 17% in SA and houses haven't dropped 50%.

Edit- Prices have actually risen. Only in pockets of low socio-economic suburbs have prices fallen compared to when the economy started falling apart post-GFC. Even in those areas price falls have been very marginal.

 

Yeah that is a crazy day and I don't think I could do that, so you are definitely a trooper. But to be fair, you could live 10km from the CBD in say Chatswood and have a similar experience due to living that far from the train station. You spend an hour each day just walking to and from the station and that fact really has nothing to do with how far away said station is from the CBD but how far you lived from said station. Have you ever considered renting out your house and renting a place in a more convenient location? Not trying to be patronising but that is what I would do.

 

Some areas of Perth have not recovered to 2007 prices. Next year, that will make it a 'lost decade' for price growth in some areas. There will hopefully be some good buying in 2017, 10 years after the peak in prices. There better be some good buying in 2017 because I can't find any good deals now.

 

if property prices dropped 50% I doubt you would even notice....

because
- youd probably be one of the of 20% unemployed
- youd probably be moving out because you cant afford to keep your PPOR since its dropped in value and you cant pay it back
- youd probably be scrambling to find a rental
- every second small to medium business would be closing down,
- dan murphys would have a waiting list of 2 hours


but I have wondered what would happen to rentals if the property market crashed,

the demand would go up but people who could afford it would be low

 

We would but we have more rescue animals than a landlord would ever allow (which sucks) - so it makes plenty of sense to do what you suggest, but not possible for us sadly. I also don't hate the commute too much - it's the only thing I dislike about living way out west, we quite enjoy being relatively near to the Blue Mountains .

 

We went one better and just moved up the mountains.
It's Beautiful up there and the home we have is going to be pretty special when we are done with it. But all this year and for the next 2 weeks I'm travelling over 2hrs each way to get into town. I'll be back at Parra soon which will knock it down to 90-100mins each way. We do the things we need to do.
As I'm sure many here would agree - I don't plan on working this job forever. It's all about setting ourselves up.
Have to admit though - I never did the maths like @sanj did earlier in the thread. 20hrs a week is quite a while...

My wife and I have worked hard to get what we have to date. We have different priorities to a lot of our generation. Is buying a home harder? Maybe... But from what I can tell by talking to others, buying your own home has always been a challenge. A lot of it comes down to priority, compromise and sacrifice.

 

Exactly this. It's what you have to do at the time to make it work.

We really love having our own place - even when things break and you can't always afford to fix them straight away haha.

Our choice to own is basically so we can rescue animals when needs be. Otherwise we'd rent in Newtown/Surry Hills/Glebe haha.

Is it amazing in the blueys to live?

 

I hope those animals appreciate it! Good on you

 

If prices were to stagnate until wages caught up, then there would be a very long wait.

Wages are growing at around 3%, so it'd take about twenty five years for prices to half in real terms. Even then, Sydney would still look expensive.

Property investment only stacks up at the moment because of capital gains. Would you hold onto a loss making place if its value wasn't increasing?

Improving housing affordability is going to hurt some groups. The status quo is hurting others.

 

Bahaha all much loved strays in need of a second chance (aren't we all at times?) so I think they do . They keep us motivated to work hard and give them good lives

 

Indeed we are! And im sure they do

 

Yes it might require something worse for this to happen.
I know what you mean, but if the headline unemployment figure reached 15% we would know about it. Underemployment would also be much higher although many of these people probably wouldn't have a mortgage.

 

Yes they haven't. But they are not growing. That 4% a year is NOt growth, it's zero after inflation and rates.

 

If they grow by 4% per year that is easily outstripping inflation and wage growth, which has recently been only 2.5%.

 

an article on train usage The Sydney commuters abandoning trains

 

Wage growth - maybe. Inflation is higher, REAL inflation, not the reported one. But even if it's so. What is a standard mortgage rate in the last 10 years - about 6-6,5%. 4% growth is still lower than that even with a 20% deposit.

 

Wouldn't know - I'm never home.
My wife says it's quite nice though. She works 7 mins away at Katoomba.

 

Hey @Jennifer Duke, the PPOR i'm moving from is about a 30min walk from the station too. (And btw... gosh.... you are walking from home at something like 5.45am?) So I have been riding my pushbike to go to and from the station the whole time whilst living there. It's quicker than walking and more convenient than catching a bus...