The garbage may be about to hit the fan in Sydney

Yes anything that hasn't happened yet can be called as speculation. It works both was though. If you predict that the economy will boom for long enough it will eventually come true as well. And if you are wrong this time about a boom and instead we get a bust, you would be the one "speculating"

Another saying would be "even a broken clock is right twice a day"

the thing about economies and most business sectors is that things are often cyclical.

Currently our economy is going sideways at best. IMHO in the medium term(next 5-10 years), the likelihood of a downcycle is much more possible than another boom cycle. However in the longer term (10-20years) assets like property/stocks are very likely to continue going up, tracking inflation/population growth.

Not to go off topic, Sydney property has had a very big boom cycle. Anyone who has been investing in property long enough would probably say valuations are already toppy if not bubbly. Next couple years, a downcycle has a high chance of happening, though a sideways market or even more upside is even possible, depending on how the flow of immigration/foreign funds/RBA policy/etc.. goes.

 

I think the critical question is whether anyone holding in Sydney should hold or sell. That things will cool IN GENERAL for the medium term, including a blood on the streets scenario for some overleveraged owners, is not being disputed.

Its really a toss between a certain 25 to 30% hit ( via selling) vs a theoretical reduction up to or beyond those %s from holding till the next cycle.

My vote is that if you can afford to hold and the assets in question have perennially desirable qualities, then hold.

 

It is like a frog boiling in hot water....most people don't know how and when to get out before things go pear shaped...

 

When can we expect property crash in syd?

 

Look it is not going to be a crash in the American/Irish sense but you will see forced sales where properties do sell for 20% or even 30% from what they were bought for.

This is how I picket up a property on the central cost for 232k.

 

Negative interest rates rarely work. If put that into practice, everyone would either 1) transfer funds internationally to institutions without negative interest or 2) Withdraw funds and stockpile cash. Banks would then have a cash flow crisis. Basically negative interest is not the solution.

 

This will be interesting Quantitative tightening: Can trillions of dollars be taken out of the US economy without anyone getting hurt? - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

 

Can't see it ATM, pressure on wages is down, that or lose your job, at the lower end at least....