The garbage may be about to hit the fan in Sydney

I find this the most fascinating part of any cycle . . .

History shows that when a market turns it is generally DISORDERLY, never in an orderly fashion . . . so what's interesting is when some bad news starts flowing through . . . like the last 2 months in Sydney, when does this drip turn into a deluge and ppl start taking action based on price movement down...

Eg how many boomers with insufficient super balances have already incorporated the paper Sydney gains into their retirement plans and will be very happy to sell 10% lower rather than disrupt their plans and having ongoing price uncertainty . . . I expect quite a few based on demographic data.

 

Personally don't really care if prices go down 20-30% (if they do), I just want rents to surge.

 

Yep exactly. Because we have all made 100% or 150% gains already. It wont drop 20% anyway maybe 10% Max if we see any drops at all.

Everyone can quote news articles and click bait stories etc.....I trust my research and my on the ground first hand knowledge. I ain't seeing no slow down in the west yet.

I'll give some ppl a challenge. Choose a few western Sdney suburbs and track their moving averages for the next 3-4 months. I'll bet they continue to increase.

 

this will be interesting!
couple of months for data lag but i think we'll be able to find some drops. Quick look and this year the number of sales is decreasing and the curve is looking to turn to sad face

 

Thought I'd post this. Whilst I think Mount Druitt will correct, it may be not as drastic as some purport.

 

that would be my bet too

 

These charts never really tell the full story I find. They never show you the odd juicy fire sale. You don't see those in hot markets but when it cools and some people get desperate to sell you'll see it.

It's like a block of land I purchased in 2009 (dem days of 9% rates), picked it up for 230k. The guy before me bought it for 320k a few years earlier. I'm **** at maths but that is about a 30% drop no? The whole suburb didn't tank by that much but people get desperate and there are not as many buyers around it starts to happen. That stuff doesn't show up in the charts but it's where the dollars are made in a down market.

 

True. But the anomalies (above and below including the fire sales) make up the average.

Anyway, we can all agree Sydney's due for a hiding but I doubt very much they'll retreat back to 2012 prices.

And again just for fun, I thought I'd pick $550K as the lowest median price for 2770 - that's Mount Druitt the suburb not LGA.

Anyone else want to have a crack? Be interesting when we look back at this thread 3-4 years from now.

 

Ditto.

 

Maybe...but don't count on the lower socio to push up as much as there is wages deflation there....

 

No. Only half baked lol.

 

I cant see rents doing that much, pricing of rental is not just demand, but peoples ability to pay, where I have been living it has climbed to about 500 a week, some homes they want more & what you see is those homes where they ask into the 6 or 7's become shared living type arrangements, or drug labs for a couple of greedy & unlucky ones.

Not sure about others, but I have gone backwards, even with modest pay increases IMO, and others I know on same pay as a decade ago or more, which is a large cut in fact.

Yeah, ok, your postcode and spreadsheet will defy all other forces that will or are already hitting the South West etc.....you may want to also take note that QLD and elsewhere will not escape the effects of lending changes, they are not postcode specific or prejudiced.

 

Apparently not.

Maybe you can give us a tutorial on the Rule of 72?

 

Correct it doesn't show those abnormally in individual deals, but charts, median stats shows keep *******s honest.

Maybe it's the 1 % or 5% people that can score these deals? But some people will use these out of norm as if the average dick on the street can score such deals..

 

How are people's Sydney property coming along?
It seem every letter I received from Agent is garbage...they want to increase my tenant's rent

 

I doubt there's gonna be big drops in house prices this year, and probably next year either for property under the median around Sydney.

Mt Druitt areas seem to be the ones with the eventual most downside.

 

My Sydney properties are performing freakin awesome! Great returns, they keep rising every month and have been doing so for the last 5 - 6 years and I've more than doubled my money on each and every single one of them. Cant complain

I own everywhere in Sydney - well in alot of places and my Western Sydney places have performed extremely well and they are the ones that are continuing to rise atm. My ones closer to the CBD have stalled somewhat.

 

There's only a few days to go and some of the Gold Coast northern suburbs are about to have their fourth month of settling only 50% of dwellings compared with the same time 2015 & 2016

There is also a growing gap between asking price and sold price for some sales that have a fixed price.

Silent auctions "Offers above" has been working very well for vendors the last couple of years. The reports are now showing some sales below this base price, which is a new trend we didn't see much of in 2015 & 16

 

that is exactly how it happens median may come off by 5 to 10%. but in a down market when people get desperate you can pick up places 20 to even 40% under median. this happened in brissie after the 2011 floods.

a real life example was when i picked up a beand new town house on the central coast for 233k.....in 2012. the price of it should have been 300k.

 

No doubt the fire sales will occur in due course @sash. Seeing Mt Druitt is the consensus' gauge for Sydney house prices, where do you think it will bottom out? $400K?