The future ....

This is the other "conversation" I was talking about - Utopia for Realists

Universal Basic Income: The future?

 

Yep - pretty stable over the last 10+ years despite GDP growing significantly ... not sure what you're debating as all the figures and charts confirm what I've been saying. Wealth of the country is going up - full time jobs are not increasing in line

Australia Employment Rate | 1978-2018 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

 

Im not convinced about UBI

I would prefer more resources allocated to:

Better Educational institutions ( TAFE etc) that allowed people to continuously throughout careers, upskill, change skills

Change in laws, regulations etc to allow/nudge the elderly to maintain forms of employment
Increase benefits and services to allow women ( primary caregivers) to stay in the workforce

A defocus on universities for tertiary education and more apprenticeships for younger and older people for careers in trades.

 

Lizzie, you are confusing rates and absolutes.

 

Slightly off topic I know...
All I can say to this is gee, I try to learn from history and can only plan for the future, but I live in the present, so I concentrate on my life right now, to make it better no matter what the future holds. As my mentor Jim Horn said:
"Learn how to separate the majors and the minors. A lot of people don’t do well simply because they major in minor things."
"There are some things you don’t have to know how it works – only that it works. While some people are studying the roots, others are picking the fruit. It just depends on which end of this you want to get in on."

 

Still don't know what we're debating about - manufacturing jobs are declining - yes, service industry jobs are picking up the slack for now, but will face decline as automation increases ... there are more and more "purposeless" jobs being created.

It's easy to say "up skill" and "work longer" - but if there aren't the jobs to support the outcome the the jobs naturally go to the more adaptable and agile ... you have to only look at the number of people over 50 who are considered "unemployable" due to their age

 

This chart tells us the number of employed persons in Australia, at around 12.5 m currently which is common knowledge. It does not identify manufacturing jobs, unless part of the title is hidden.

 

I agree that we humans are generally pretty adaptable and will evolve with the changes in our economy. One point I got from the blog is that as more and more jobs or professions disappear, we currently have nothing lined up to replace them. Being a resourceful mob, some new industry may well develop down the track to adsorb this. But as yet we do not know if or what that is.

 

I think it was this man -Charles Holland Duell, that made this statement a long time ago..
Quote..
Duell has become famous for, during his tenure as United States Commissioner of Patents, purportedly saying "Everything that can be invented has been invented..
Charles Holland Duell - Wikipedia

Only my opinion ,but the future is unknown,because if one could see into the future where you were able to predict it- like all the media on investing property equities drama queens always get it wrong..

 

Manufacturing jobs are actually picking up at the moment in australia. Regardless, advanced economies are based on services. We have more jobs now in Australia than ever before. As per your graph, the participation rate is markedly higher than decades before.

We have been automating tasks since agriculture, the printing press, the model T ford, the word processor etc. This is not a new thing. We dont want our economy based on people working in manufacturing sweat shops.

 

I admire your optimism but I don't think it's happening. None of these options come close to petrol as a fuel. These technologies will remain as niche products, not the mainstream. What happened to flying cars? I remember shows like 'Beyond 2000' in the 90s that claimed we'd all be driving them now.

 

Ah well - considering in France and the UK, after 2040 it will be illegal to drive a petrol car on the road, the technology better hurry up.

Personally, I'm content with my quarterly electricity bill that arrived today - $64

 

The new supermarket at Eatons Hill has a car charger, only one, but one more than i've seen anywhere else this far away from civilisation.

 

The new development at Greenhills has 4 on each parking level ...

 

Did someone mention flying cars? Better start saving your bikkies:

Terrafugia Promises Its Flying Car Will Go on Sale in 2019 - ExtremeTech

 

Automation strikes again

Bitter aftertaste for Cadbury workforce as robots oust humans in pursuit of 'significant efficiencies'

 

Look at the latest job vacancies!!

 

I think we are at a junction of overlap where there is an increased demand for automation enablers and those to be cannibalised are not made redundant yet. This may last for few years when jobs to be cannibalised will start reducing slowly and then dramatically, All within next decade.

 

Jobs Growth in '80s Linked to Computer

Have a read of this article....from 1981

Computerized robots are favored in assembly line and other routine tasks, such as auto painting and precision welding, where they work long hours without lunch and coffee breaks. The robots require no pay increases, no health or workmen's compensation benefits, and they don't sign union cards.

The auto industry alone has about half of the nation's 5,000 robots, and is planning to add more in its recession-driven haste to reduce labor costs.

 

What does the future hold?

Like watching a slow motion train wreck - every moment is closer to disaster - yet there is nothing one can do

US to suspend historic Cold War missile treaty with Russia