Caught this interview today - and had to sit in the carpark for the final 30 minutes ... really interesting and explains a lot Gwynne Dyer on the future of the world
1. The manufacturing jobs in the US that have disappeared recently have not gone to China or Mexico, but to robots. 2. Unemployment across the globe is rising and they haven't thought of new industries to keep people employed and out of trouble. 3. Solution - universal wage and higher taxes Preamble - Trump did something useful by getting elected - he drew attention to the situation of disenfranchised people in the US who feel ignored by the major parties. (Someone please let us know if I have it confused with one of the other things I watched on Friday)
Gosh - he covered so many areas ... um ... sure any excuse to re-listen: - Trump is the canary in the coal mine, as the world enters a new phase (although interviewee does not like Trump as a leader, he acknowledges that Trump has given the world a "heads up" that would not have happened under Hillary) - This new phase is automation that will increase wealth but claim jobs - True unemployment in the USA is around 15% of working aged males (aged 24-55) ... up to 30%+ in traditional manufacturing areas ... according to survey of 20,000 people per week ... not the 4% claimed by government - Unemployment figures disguised by other forms of welfare (ie, disability, pensions) or simply not claiming benefits - Disability welfare has increased 100% in last 20 years - 85% of jobs that are lost in the USA are replaced by automation, or simply disappearing, not going abroad or "stolen" by foreigners as claimed by Trump - but his rhetoric is appealing to those who feel abandoned/betrayed by the economy - USA wages have stagnated or gone backwards for last 35 years (adjusted for inflation) - Jobs in traditional manufacturing countries, such as China, are also declining due to automation - Between 1990 and 2000 2mil jobs were moved overseas by USA executives - Since 2000, jobs are not moving aboard but are being replaced by automation, ie, Ford still produces same number of cars in USA but with 1/10th the workforce - Manufacturing is moving back to the USA due to government stability, but this is not resulting in jobs - Retail jobs are expected to continue to decline due to online shopping and warehouse automation - For every new job created due to new industries and automation, 4 jobs are being lost - Countries are getting richer - USA manufacturing output has doubled in last 25 years - but 7mil jobs have been lost in same period - Rich are getting richer as 30 years ago gap between highest and lowest wage was 5x ... gap is now 8x and increasing - Free trade is "not" a key factor in loss of jobs - UK and France has ruled that driving petrol cars will be illegal by 2040 ... so petrol car industry in those countries will cease by 2035 (15 years away) - Electric cars are much easier to build, maintain and run that petrol cars - Oil rich countries are screwed. Saudi's realise this and are trying to restructure their economy, but without oil wealth there is no purpose for it's large population. Russia is in denial - Auto industry CEO's acknowledge that self driving cars will reduce cars on the road by 75% by 2040 and that, by 2025, only 50% of people will buy new cars in comparison to 2010 - In USA 4.5mil paid driving jobs will go by 2030 Solutions? - Universal Basic Income is gaining traction and currently under trial - Everyone gets a basic income, no questions asked or means tested, which would allow a comfortable (but not excessive) life - Everyone free to take a job but taxed at higher rate and still gets basic income - No welfare payments - No humiliation of having to apply and qualify for welfare - Narrows, but doesn't eliminate, gap between rich and poor. Still rewarded for working hard - Frees people from purposeless and useless jobs - Past trials show people "do not" slack off, but rather change career, embark in more intellectual or creative directions, with certainty that they will not starve - Allows more time to care for children and elderly within the family (again, reducing jobs) - Possibility of full employment is no longer a reality and populations will need to transition - Democracy is not under threat despite current unrest/flaws as humans are naturally egalitarian Summary? - Trump is the warning the rest of the world needs to heed but his "reasons" are wrong - Despite Trump's aggressiveness, there will be no great war as the rest of the world will keep him in check - The real and urgent fork in the road for the future is Climate Change - Realisation of changes required to prevent the consequences of climate change will come from industry and the populous, not government If you made it this far down, I recently read a book called "Utopia for realists" that talked about the history of a minimum income, and the rise of useless jobs in the current economies - and the future future - in more detail. Was an interesting read. Lizzie
And - it's happening in Australia too, so don't be in denial. I caught something last week on the radio news about a manufacturing company in Victorian is moving to full automation and said they had to automate or go out of business - which is just a sample of what is actually happening. Even the mining industry is moving towards higher automation (hubby is watching jobs disappear almost monthly at his work). I think this is why there is such frustration at the current governments - they are not addressing the topics that are really at the forefront. Climate change and future of the working class
new jobs will open up or you have to up skill, that where technology and the world is heading. lot of farm jobs disappear when machine comes along assembling lines disappeared a while ago Banks teller mostly disappear with online banking Internet destroyed paper and tv river of gold along with jobs but then there are thousand more IT jobs, AI jobs, Automation design jobs more people use internet to make a living from stock market trading, to sell things online. Ask what you can do for yourself rather than reply on government to help you. I used to picked fruit once and see no future and too much hard work so I tried something else
Yep, what Lizzie said. It was really interesting. I guess these are things that you and I cannot solve, no matter how smart we are. I went through a time when my kids were little, terrified of what the future holds. Now I realise it is out of my hands, and my job is to do the best i can in the situation I find myself in. I raised my kids to be aware and to also do whatever they can if they find themselves in any nasty situations. I am grateful that I live in a wonderful country where we have an incredibly high standard of living.
Haven't we been automating since we started irrigating? Does trends in employment include the massive female participation effect since WWII There is no way unemployment is increasing in China, India and other developing countries. There have been mass reductions in poverty world wide. Cars may become electric in the medium future but planes and ships wont. PLus where will the electricity come from?? - Gas
75% of mine comes from solar. If I got an electric car I'd just put on another bank of panels and battery - then I'd be 100% covered plus some For those that are doubting about the future direction - suggest you listen to the podcast, do your own research and some deep thinking.
Estimates are that for every IT job created - four others are lost - CEDA - More than five million Aussie jobs gone in 10 to 15 years
Yes - China is currently at record employment (but so claims the USA when the truth is much different) ... but even the Chinese government sees the writing on the wall (sorry the reuters article is 12 months old, can't find anything more recent) China sees higher risk of mass unemployment, pledges more support | Reuters China Faces Employment Crisis; Recent Graduates, Rural Migrants Among Hardest Hit | Worldwatch Institute
but that human evolution, we get smarter, do more with less, you cant help every single one, to survive you have to adapt, some wont, some lose their jobs but that the reality since the beginning of time, plenty of industries dies and new one spring up, those who can adapt will prosper, those who cant has to do with less. that the same line as why cant everyone own their own home? why does it need to be expensive etc... Over time we have less jobs, we will learn to have less kids
When we transition from horse cart to car there lot of noises about people losing their jobs clean up the street and pick up horse manure etc... there are thousands of those jobs back then just to clean up horse ****. This stuff written nearly 25 years ago Beyond 2000 : The Jobs of the Past, the Jobs of the Future : A Short Time Trip Into the Next Millennium.
We are already seeing salary stagnation in spite of rising corporate productivity due to very basic automation, nothing compared to what's going to come within a decade or two. The new jobs created (non gig ones at least) are not easy to be reskilled for, high paying jobs of future will be far and few, with high entry barriers for eg. Engg/phds with high IQ as a base requirement. There is plenty of automation happening even within IT Industry, for eg. . Adoption of cloud is making in-house infra teams redundant employing only a few of cloud skilled enggs compared to how many they have replaced. . Test automation programmers will replace very many manual and semi manual testers required for the same job before, its already in motion. IT is still the safe bet compared to other industries, given that the core programmer/architects demand will rise given that they will provide the tools and resources to cannibalise other industries. Jobs of unskilled or semiskilled workers would be low hanging fruits but even skilled traditional jobs of GP, nurses, lawyers, builders, miners, enggs won't be safe. There won't be a single current industry in terms of jobs which will not be impacted in coming decade or two, mostly in a negative way. Automation is going to impact poor countries much harsher then rich countries with small population, Australia is indeed a lucky country comparatively.
The Naievity of the Young. Firstly the Seek site is for current IT jobs advertised now, it is not for new jobs over and above the current workforce. Maybe a lesson from The Industrial Revolution. Some people found new jobs in new industries. Then as time progressed, more and more workers came into the cities displaced from the farms. In time the cities couldn't cope, overcrowding, poverty and disease increased and next thing major disruptions were required. Deportation, wars and plagues come to mind. That fixed the overcrowding problems. How will that pan out 200 years later? *We use drones now in warfare rather than masses of otherwise underemployed people *We have made impressive improvements in Healthcare, thus life expectancy has increased exponentially. *White Australia doesn't want any more immigration, even our neighbours from Pacific Islands disappearing under water are not welcome.
Renewables will/are very important and will increase rapidly, but still a massive shortfall in what is 'required'
Petrol cars cannot be fully or even mostly replaced by electric ones as there is not enough rare earth metals in the earth to make this possible. They are used in the battery of electric cars and are already in high demand due to their use in gadgets such as smartphones and tablets. Secondly, it's not a remotely sustainable development. Just think about all the cars in existence today and the resources that would be required to replace them with electric cars (and all the money that would need to change hands to do so). And then think about the resources that would be needed to power these vehicles every single day. People already complain about power bills now, can you imagine the bills when their cars will be included. Petrol was used as the initial fuel for cars because it is so energy dense and is still relatively affordable. Technology can only go so far I think - people are just going to have to get used to changing their lifestyles and expectations
