The effects of climate on COVID-19 spread

Discussion in 'Living Room' started by Casteller, 28th Mar, 2020.

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  1. Casteller

    Casteller Well-Known Member

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    {Note from mods - this thread split from here: Coronavirus}



    They are in Europe, but its colder here, it appears infection rate is affected by temperature and humidity (and population density). Climate link not proven, but seems evidence for it when you look at places hard hit and those not, and this is the case for similar viruses.

    So maybe Australia has been lucky in that the curve has been naturally flattened by warmer weather, but may have to lockdown longer than the northern hemisphere as it passes through winter. Expectation here is that the warmer weather will greatly minimise infection rate, but thats 2-3 months away and in the meantime everyone has to stay quarantined. Anyway that´s the theory, we´ll see.
     
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  2. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    The evidence is still coming in. While there appears to be a link between climate and the spread, one study concludes that "European and American cities will most likely not see lowering of cases due to climate"

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/heal...d-and-cooler-weather-may-accelerate-it/707177

    I'd wonder if places which have been hardest got in Europe were countries with high numbers of visitors, like Italy and Spain. In the US, the hardest hit cities have been tourist spots like New York, San Francisco and New Orleans; wintering zones like Miami, and the tech hub of Seattle.
     
    Last edited: 29th Mar, 2020
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  3. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Indonesia is not exactly a cold country but with only 1000 odd confirmed cases, there's a 9% mortality rate.

    Sure, we can probably point fingers at: lack of testing, mass gatherings, 3rd world nation status, crowding, large population, the power of prayer etc.
     
  4. Casteller

    Casteller Well-Known Member

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    Seems too much of a coincidence that all fast growing outbreaks around the world have similar cold climates at the moment, and that there are no fast growing outbreaks in warm regions. Which is why Australia should be especially vigilant with winter approaching.

    This is a good article about it, and how the virus could lay dormant in warmer months before reemerging when winter arrives again.
    https://www.ft.com/content/c8ed3692-6db3-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

    Scientists from Beihang and Tsinghua universities in China, who have examined how the coronavirus has been transmitted in 100 Chinese cities, concluded that “high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of Covid-19”.

    Prof Sajadi’s research suggests that, although the virus can spread anywhere, it transmits most effectively between humans when humidity is low and the temperature is between 5C and 11C.


    At present the areas most affected by Covid-19 are between 30-50 degrees north of the equator — which includes most of China and the US, and the southern portion of Europe. But the Maryland team predict that this belt of most intense viral transmission will move northward into northern Europe and Canada over the coming weeks — before slowing down across the northern hemisphere in the summer, while intensifying in the temperate regions south of the equator. The Chinese researchers have also predicted a drop in transmission with the arrival of summer.
     
  5. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    While there are many outbreaks in cool climates, there have been outbreaks in the US in warmer places like Florida, Louisiana and California. These are places with a lot of visitors, but the warmth hasn't slowed the spread.

    And while it's past the peak of summer, I'd hardly call Australia cool at the moment.
     
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  6. Casteller

    Casteller Well-Known Member

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    But this supports the hypothesis .. all those places are warm at the moment (including Australia, excluding northern California), all very low internal virus transmission, most of it imported. There are outbreaks in warm areas, but they just don´t grow very fast compared to cold areas which explode.
     
  7. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    New Orleans is a hotspot, with an outbreak. It had a lot of visitors who were there for one event, who are now gone - leaving the disease behind to spread.