NSW The definitive Sydney 2022 Q3 and Q4 market analysis and conclusions

That looks like one of the outlier prices in the suburb especially considering the the current environment.

 

Whatever. As long as prices are sticky where i own my IPs, that's some validation re my choice of street/suburb.

 

Emotional buy?

 

Because not all parents know themselves.. Some of the conversations I have heard from friends and their family members over the years is unbelievable. These are “educated” people, though have not the slightest idea about anything related to basic personal finance. We can’t assume that everyone out there has the level of knowledge people on here do, or even an understanding of the basics. Many don’t.

 

Do you think teachers are (generally speaking) any better?
Nobody was born with a calculator or tablet with spreadsheets, we all had to learn.
Or leave the kids to the "village".
Wanting your kids to fly like eagles being taught by a bunch of turkeys is a little over expectancy imo. I hear many like drag story time though.

 

No, in most cases they probably aren't so I definitely agree with not relying on schools. It is like with anything in life, people need to take the responsibility themselves.

 

Teachers teach, corporately speaking, but students/children primarily learn from their parents.

I always remark when I hear wide-eyed wannabe parents claiming "my child will love the outdoors" or x, y and z. You watch the parent's lifestyle (they never camp, never spend time in the outdoors, always looking at their phone/tv/computer etc) and they wonder why their children don't like the outdoors.

Dare I say it; monkey see monkey do.

 

Some oddly strong results in the east (reflecting A grade for the area).

This one was selling OTP about a year ago with a 3 handle or early 4. We had a close look but the road was way too busy and driveway didn’t allow to get cars out properly (not ideal for little kids!). Cleared 5! New, familyish home, always has cracker results.

285 Malabar Road, Maroubra, NSW 2035
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-maroubra-139196043

Another stellar result too below at just shy 4.2, not sure how or why. But family friendly ready made home box ticked again. Older renovated home though and not the prettiest, probably went for over 500k more than what I expected given the falls (this is pretty much or near peak prices). Prices are not nearly at early 2021 level for these type of homes, this would have have traded mid 3s then. Next door sold at beginning of rise at 3.3 in late 2020.

263 Storey Street, Maroubra, NSW 2035
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-maroubra-139421163

meanwhile old homes that need lots of work still trading low. Offers some decent returns value adding.

 

Nice house and pretty good position but $5m? Nah too high. I would've thought maybe mid to late $3s.

 

Yeah it was a cracker price IMO. Its a duplex, on a main road, thats hard to back out from. The position makes it a bit awkward, but it does have nice views. But theres very limited new or near new homes in the area, theres always like 20x people at inspections vs older homes.

 

Funny bc I'd only be looking at the older homes haha.

 

A Parra style data point. This place has been on the market since late Feb. Had a price range of $1.45m - $1.55m for ages. just reduced to guide of $1.3m - $1.4m

https://www.realestate.com.au/property/6a-clematis-cl-cherrybrook-nsw-2126

 

In late February, auction guide was $ 1.55m.

Any many comparable sold last year around that range.

 

https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-darlington-139172391

Good buy here I think. Can easily get 3 students/young professionals into there for around $1000 a week in this rental market.

 

It really does make you wonder sometimes. It's a nice enough place, but with how the market is falling you're looking at being able to get a free standing property in the inner west on a similar sized piece of land at that price point (though of course not nearly as nice a finish). It definitely does add to the feeling that the boom in the North West of Sydney in particular was heavily driven by credit and in particular, buyers stretching themselves to the limit and artificially pumping up the prices in like an arms race of sorts.

 

That’s a cracker. Was looking at that myself.

 

I only just realised it has the power lines just behind it. That's not going to help.

 

Whenever things get tighter for borrowing capacity , the A grade stuff stays afloat at first while the B and C Grade properties suffer first... but another cash rate increase or two and it's unlikely any grade of property will stay immune from the forced reduction in capacity.

Also important to realise that the rate rises are only just hitting.... There is a lag effect. This past week or two will have been the first jump in repayments for most variable rate borrowers. When the 2nd rise is debited later this month, and tomorrow's ( assumed) rate is debited next month, that's when I would expect to start seeing the real effects starting to take hold. My expectation would be that we should see much clearer data confirming declines/impacts in September/October . Let's see whether A Grade properties are still attracting enthusiastic numbers into Spring if there is a further 50-100bpts by then.

 

Cash rate will be going above 2015 levels. How much has median wages / income grown since then? You would think all things being equal, property prices would go back to 2015 levels but that surely will not happen.

Back to the last peak 2017?

 

if the cash rate gets to the mid 3% range being predicted, we will be seeing assessment rates from 2007 ..... let's all hope that doesn't happen!!!!