NSW The definitive Sydney 2022 Q1 and Q2 market analysis and conclusions

And #9 took a long time to sell. I drive past there every day. I've seen a couple of places in the same spec bracket with 'quirks' sit on the market for months before finally getting withdrawn recently.

 

Though I agree the market is certainly down at least 10%, for me, 20 sqm of extra land is substantial while an outdoor spa is a big negative

 

Redom - given the pace of declines we are seeing atm, do you now believe my 2018 price prediction is more likely than it was 3 months ago?

 

Comparison between Feb and Now

24 Peel Road, Baulkham Hills
Price guide 1.5, sold for 1,980,000 in Feb 2022

31 Luculia Avenue, Baulkham Hills
Price guide 1.5, passed in at 1,400,000 today

Peel road is in a better school catchment and has better views, however was in a poor condition requiring lot of renovation work.
Luculia avenue, much quieter Street and better condition and some parts of the home renovated.

I have personally inspected both properties and don't find much difference based on an overall comparison.
The 580,000 reduction in value that the market values them in the span of 3 months is beyond explanation.
Depending on properties, the reduction from peak is way more than 10%

 

That is a 30% drop... people said that couldn’t happen in Sydney.

 

Some of current listing in BaulkhamHills got surprising low asking price range and they not going for auction. Some in MP catchment too.

 

North Rocks had good run today, 2 auctions and both sold at good price. 2 biders at both auction.

 

@ParraEels this looks cheap for beecroft. Any expert comments if that area is cooling down?
Take a look at this property on www.domain.com.au:

Charming home in the Beecroft Primary School catchment
63 Copeland Road, Beecroft

https://www.domain.com.au/63-copeland-road-beecroft-nsw-2119-2017782490

 

It will be good buy if sell within price range $ 1.8 - $ 1.95m. I haven't inspected so not sure about easement etc.

Auctions are almost gone from the Beecroft, most properties sold prior. Buyers are still there but 5-7% drop is visible for sure.

74a melton rd sold prior to auction for less than auction guide,

Another one on melton rd advertising $ 2.5 - $2.75m and unable to find buyer, listing removed after 70 days

88 Hanna st initially wanted $ 2.6m revised few times now want $ 2.25m,

Some quoted 1.5m, $1.7m etc so asking price has dropped significantly but those properties not sold yet,

 

Yes definitely.
Still farfetched though.
It’s gone from 99/1 to 97/3 (and that’s being a little bearish not pragmatic).

 

Re going back to 2018 prices,

 

In

In February this year the median was $1.410m. Same time in 2018 it was $1.075m
That is a bit under a 30% difference.

Whilst it is unheard of to see a decline if that magnitude across the entire index, @KingCantona7 has posted evidence here which is in line with that type of drop (albeit it is only 3 months from the peak and the house didn’t even sell).

My timeline is 3-5 years….. I think there’s a great chance this happens.

 

Lol. See my comment above Sackie. You were wrong about rates, don’t be surprised if you’re wrong about this too.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if in the main, prices go back to 2018 levels. I'd be shocked!!

As much as I think it's very, very unlikely. If it did happen....can you imagine the buying opportunities......I wouldn't know where to start!

 

Reality is prices are back at October 2021 levels now. That’s still 30% above the previous trough in the market in 2018.

I can post an example of a 30% increase from Dec 21 to May 2022, that doesn’t reflect the index.
The index is down 1%. Another 30% to go?

Yes it’s increased in likelihood. A precondition for a 30% drop is a faltering economy, inflation soaring and an rba cash rate above 2.5%. All of those factors have increased in likelihood.

Few years is unlikely - the market will be well back up by then IMO. Nominal wages will be up 15% or so by 2025 from 2018 levels. Rents 25-40% higher. Actual net incomes 25% or more after tax cuts.

It will be 2022 or 2023 trough. If the 2024 tax cuts are realised it’s almost no chance. That alone is a turbo boost to capacities. For Sydneysiders buying at that median level, it’s a 200k+ boost to BC.

That’s the issue with long horizons with inflation. Nominal fair value prices inflate over that period too given nominal increases in net incomes/rentals that take time to season.

 

Ordinary day at BH, few withdrawn and few sold prior

 

Decent day for Sydney more broadly, post election lift noticeable.

 

Looking like abysmal results for Sydney today (39.5% auction clearance).

Auction Clearance Rates - Sold to Listed - May 28th 2022

 

If you're right I love you long time.

 

Haha it’s 7 year period, that’s probably close to inflation level growth!