NSW The definitive Sydney 2022 Q1 and Q2 market analysis and conclusions

Sydney slowing down end of 2021. Not all that uncommon for this time of year.

This thread is for all things related to Sydney's growth/or lack thereof for Q1 and Q2 in 2022.

Stats, graphs, sales results, on the ground feedback and anything else to be posted. Lets see how Sydney is faring after 6 months into 2022. @Redom @John_BridgeToBricks looking forward to hopefully seeing your contributions in this area over the next 6 months as I hold your market analysis posts in high regard.

I'll put out my 2c prediction that Sydney sees more growth in Q1 2022 followed by an accelerated rate of growth is Q2. Not all markets in Sydney will be equal. Units/semis likely to perform better than free standing homes.


Post away.

 

High quality stuff sub-1.5m to do well.

However, I wonder how much demand there is for the large skyscraper apartments. Have the stories of defective builds finally scared people off? Or will they see growth?

My prediction is they are the only category that will continue to lag. Not that anyone is really tracking them separately from older quality units.

 

What this bloke says:

"After every Sydney boom though, once buyers shed their FOMO and TINA (Fear Of Missing Out and There Is No Alternative) though, prices can drop by a few per cent and plateau for years."

 

Is this not applicable to every boom / city?

 

This thread is exclusively about Sydney and lets not derail it (post stuff/questions about other booms/cities on other threads).

So in terms of lengthy timespans when Sydney has previously fallen and then plateaued check out the data for Sydney from 2004-2012.

 

I'm well aware of how the last cycle played out.

 

This would be in my list of top 3 things which could happen over other events.

 

Obviously to some extent, yes. But the question is whether it eventually flat lines, or whether it has an actual prolonged downturn like Perth 2014-2020.

 

For Q1 and Q2 2022 in Sydney I believe the way market segments will perform will correlate to the derived method of income being earned in that particular segment and to know this you have to study the demographics.
Areas that have most professions, trades and businesses least affected by government health rules and restrictions will continue to rise modestly. Conversely those areas with a high proportion of people who have been badly affected by these restrictions will start to experience negative growth. We have got to the stage where government assistance is being dialled down, yet there are threats of reintroduction of new restrictions and I can’t see any positives in that.

 

Interesting view. One that I think has some merit.

 

On this you are a 100% correct....the other fact is when Qld booms Sydney tanks....look it up.

 

Fk who knows anymore..I give up.

I do believe my portfolio will be up by at least 20% in 15 years though.

 

Keen to understand this prediction - is it driven by affordability?

 

Yes. Ultimately the market that can afford $3m+ is relatively small. The bulk of the population still needs to live somewhere, and semis / units is where it'll be.

 

The rate at which professional services salaries have increased 50%+ in a lot of sectors I wouldn’t be surprised if prices continued to boom.

This is coming from someone that’s hoping things slow down to get my first PPOR, so not even like I’m hoping for a boom. But people are making stupid amounts of money now due to the professional shortages created by covid.

 

Agreed. Inflation isn't even. Predictions about how this will play out are premature.

 

This piqued my curiosity. What sectors are the salary increases in? And 50% increase from when?

 

Yes...I do recall quite clearly off the top of my head as though it was yesterday...that from 2003-2007 Sydney and NSW flatlined...and Brisbane and QLD boomed.

So no need for me to look it up but thanks for the gesture all the same mate

 

IT

 

As someone in IT I can definitely say the rates have gone up...but in my area, nowhere near as much as 50%. So was curious about what specific areas had 50%.