"The Crash" has been called... end of 2017.

No it's not. As much I've come to expect your opinions to carry no factual bearing, you can't just redefine words to suit yourself.

 

Agree. 3 years to the bottom and 3 more years to reach where we are today.

 

THX

the only frustrating thing about the ignore function is that it also blanks out quotes from members who you have on ignore .

Sometimes results in a thread making no sense or confusion as to who someone is responding to , so you have to press the display ignored content ......

Seems that particular poster hasn't changed , refining at their convenience etc .
They don't respond to questions asked of them , just picking things out of the ether

The ignore button is a useful feature

Cliff

 

Hi
I cant speak for Spain or Ireland but I can tell you that the crash in US (2007 peak), prices have now rebounded, certainly with foreclosures, my properties are nearly back to 2007 prices from 2011-2015.

MTR

 

May I ask what happened to the your rentals during the crash till now, did you take a hit with rental returns?

 

Just another day in paradise

Certainly markets are changing, we would have to be living in la la land if we did not recognise this.

Back to the original thread, economists well they always get it wrong, that is the problem, they are only human, they can not predict what will happen, no one can, damn it. If they can give me the winning lotto ticket numbers, then I am in like Flynn.

I am not about to slit my wrist, I am in the business of making money from property, this stuff just comes with the territory no different to any asset class. Ignoring what is happening would be silly, but listening to some economist who has no clue about property investing would be fatal, and shame on you for getting sucked in.


MTR

 

Not much, there have been no rental increases, apart from one particular area where I have 3 houses, other than that rents remain same as the day I purchased, starting in 2011>

County taxes reduced by 50% and they have now increased by more than 50% because property values have increased. Property values have gone from purchase prices of anywhere from $34,000-50,000 US (most expensive), to end values on average now at around $130,00-150,000 US

 

No I bought in Spain. Prices dropped for 6 years to 40-50% off. Only in the last year have they started to rise again in some areas (cities).

This is an interesting tool to look at different countries house prices for any timeframe in the last 45 years. It is updated with data up to 2015.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices
A snapshot from 2007 Q1:

 

Hey @Barny, how's the book going? I found out my local library has it, so if I get time I might just have a lend of it for free

What do you think? Are you convinced the end of the (economic) world is going to happen in the next 2 years?

 

So the GFC, that brought down the USA property market was not an unforseen economic event? I would have thought so. It certainly took the market by surprise.

 

Lol, I have no idea. The book does give some data to really think about. Unfortunately most of it leans towards scare mongering to sell his own conclusions. He will make a lot of money from this book if they do come true.
Haven't finished it yet, 100 pages to go. but he's highlighted how China is about to have the biggest bust of all time. Mentioned there's mass oversupply of property there and building is the only thing China has at the moment and they can't stop building as it will all come undone. He's mentioned this as he states we are directly related to them, our raw products is what we sell, and only really have to sell as a country, and when China finally stops which he thinks is very very soon. Mining will go bust, unemployment will go up. Then that dominos onto property, interest rates go up, then forced sales etc etc.
It's a good read, you will enjoy it.

He's pretty much highlighted what everyone else has said, but given examples of how it can and will play out.

 

Yeah, but bust or crash? These are two different scenarios. I am not at all convinced that things will play out the way he predicts. It's no skin off his nose. He sells his books either way.

 

50% drops. Not sure if you call that a crash, or a bust. What's the difference? They both sound terrible to me, unless your buying it sounds fantastic.

 

I would have finished the book tonight but terminator Genisys got in the way.

I'll be back

 

50% would be a crash, not a correction. 50% is unprecedented in the history of Australian property. 50% would be awesome for me! I am cashed up and ready to buy. I would buy, buy, buy!

 

For so called researchers they don't seem to do much research. While China is our biggest trading partner, they represent 32% of the total so while losing them would hurt severly, we can assume we'd still be trading with the other 70% and could try to strengthen trade with those nations coming up behind China (such as India etc) and if we assume we're not, then it would not be Australia up the creek but the whole world.

Second our exports make up less than 30% of our GDP. The service sector is the biggest industry in Australia and is the priority I believe of state and federal governments trying to transition the country away from just digging up stuff.

Lastly, they make an error of judgement regarding China and that is trusting them. While the great capitalist dream is seeing China grow, they are still communist controlled with communist dictated economic figures so while things are probably worse in China than we know, it is far easier for them to force a steady course through market manipulation.

 

Yeah im watching it too on Foxtel. How crap is it lol...

Reminds me of the Lawn Mower man more than a Terminator movie.

Carry on.

 

They actually do a lot of research and it is top notch. I haven't actually seen better research on the Australian property market. However, it is one thing to do research and another is what you do with the information. I don't agree with their analysis or conclusions at all. And even though they repeat on all their websites that they don't provide financial advice they are doing some real damage.

One fifth of investors admit they have put their investment plans on hold because of concerns about a property bubble.​

Maybe in Sydney or Melbourne perhaps but not anywhere else in the country. Since the story is about Brisbane, if investors are waiting for Brisbane to crash by 50%, they will be waiting a long time. In the meantime, it could cost them a lot of money to wait. I think that is really irresponsible.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...look-to-brisbane/story-fndban6l-1227585935920

 

Well the book goes into a lot more detail than just what I said, I tried to simplify it, otherwise I'd have to re write it. The point he's trying to push is how all 3 are closely linked together, mining, banking, property. And if one falls, it can send it all crashing down. He gives a lot more detail how they are all linked and scenarios to why they can and will fall. Even to iron ore prices and what happens when they drop to certain prices, etc etc, lots of different scenarios that can happen.
It's an interesting read and has opened up my mind. I was extremely ignorant to what's going on in other countries.
Im not worried about my investments as I'm set up for the longest run.
P.s. I'm selling one home but it's not because of this book lol.

 

I'm not blaming you I think by the sounds of their argument, it can be summed up as lies, damn lies and statistics.