"The Crash" has been called... end of 2017.

Its also the buying costs, Melb stamp duty I think close to 6%.

 

This is one thing we can be certain of. A correction will happen.

I would say this is very likely.

Seems cheap to me and I have been buying here for 10 years.

 

Yes it its not our PPOR yes, with legals and inspections it could get as high as that

 

@Perthguy you're mates back. I seems abc continue to lie that Phillip soos is an economist or he finally graduated as one.
Anyhow Phillip soos says we have been in a housing bubble since 1996, and every country with a house debt to GDP over 100% is in a bubble. 6.30 into the video...

 

I think this is related

Chinese investors pull out of Melbourne apartment market

 

Back? Did he ever go away?

1996! Is it April 1 today?

Anyway, that's not a rant, this is a rant:

Book review: Game of Mates - MacroBusiness

Mind. Blown!

 

Macro and Lf are mates by the way.

 

What a rant.... The ideological loony left to the extreme....Maybe Phil Soos would be more comfortable with living standards of totalitarian states like North Korea if he doesn't like free markets..........I emphasis the word free.......

 

Yes, I am aware of that. They live in some kind of alternate universe. I consider macro 'fake news'.

 

The position in that review was rather extreme. That said, I do believe markets need to be regulated to some extent. That doesn't mean we are living in some kind of giant conspiracy though.

The claim I see repeated over and over is that the gap between the rich and poor is growing. I don't see any evidence for this. Is it true, or more fake news?

The other thing is that all of these "rich" rent takers do something with all the money they "steal". What do they do with it? Spend it usually, so it goes back into the economy. Our economy is really just a giant money-go-round. I don't see anything sinister in that.

 

Tick tock!

 

[However, around 80 per cent of Chinese buyers will not be able to settle because of trouble getting finance, according to Ming Li, a real estate agent in Melbourne's eastern suburbs who specialises in selling Australian property to Chinese investors.]

I expect this will be the same situation in Sydney and Brisbane as well, going into the 2H17.

No wonder S&P downgraded all those banks.

 

Banks are being cautious on funding for the newer apartments in high supply areas... so its the developers that have the problem.

 

Come on mate, what sort of evidence do you need to see?

Wage growth lowest in history
Under employment
Contract based work
Property prices highest in history
Utility prices going through the roof and forecast to keep climbing
Petrol prices high despite low oil prices.
Discretionary spending based business folding

The only positive is low interest rates, which are also on their way up.

 

None of that tells me about the gap between rich and poor. What is the gap? What was the gap in the past? At what rate is it growing? How many people are "rich"? How many people are "poor"? How is this different from the past?

The claim "the gap between rich and poor Australians is widening" is meaningless to me because I have never seen numbers explaining it. So I don't know it is real or made up. I don't even know what is "poor" and what is "rich". What are the actual numbers?

 

A simple google search on inequality brings up numerous articles with the information you seek. For example: Mind the gap: Income inequality grows

Once again you're doing that thing where, despite being on the internet right now you pretend you don't know how to use it, that articles and sources must be presented to you. Demanding custom answers to general questions.

 

Nonsense.

Welcome back.

 

Urban Dictionary: Sealioning

"A subtle form of trolling involving "bad-faith" questions. You disingenuously frame your conversation as a sincere request to be enlightened, placing the burden of educating you entirely on the other party. If your bait is successful, the other party may engage, painstakingly laying out their logic and evidence in the false hope of helping someone learn. In fact you are attempting to harass or waste the time of the other party, and have no intention of truly entertaining their point of view. Instead, you react to each piece of information by misinterpreting it or requesting further clarification, ad nauseum. The name "sea-lioning" comes from a Wondermark comic strip."

 

Buried in the article is some evidence that the gap between the highest income earners and lowest income earners is indeed growing:

“The gross income of the top 20 per cent of households has grown by just over $25,000 in two years - an 11 per cent increase, against wages growth which has been between one and two per cent.
...
“At the bottom end there is only a five per cent increase in two years - roughly keeping up with CPI.”​

That answers my question. Thanks for posting.

 

That doesn't make any sense , you can only compare the gap if rich and poor are doing same thing and getting different result and gap explains result rather then effort ( or opportunities) , btw what the gap signifies in terms of what lying in future ? , that parameter only show true color when it reach to affect to basic amenities where humanity true reflection comes up (like in germany daily food cost for over 40 % of daily wage ,that's when people came on road protesting and gave populist like hitler to hold office ) rich and poor plays different game under different territory .

You gotta be stop reading internet for sometime and pay attention what does really mean , in your own terms -


age growth lowest in history- this has been long due ,infact improving due to Asian migration
Under employment- not really , instead of full time job ,now more part time job, participation has improved infact
Contract based work- yes, get used to it , thing of a future , IOT and automation is trend now .
Property prices highest in history- really , in terms of what ? have you considered CPI over the year , property prices goes in line to inflation in long run , sudden spikes are meant to happen due to population influx and gov policy , nothing wrong. considering last 2 decades sydney hasn't even catched up other capital cities equivalent growth.
Utility prices going through the roof and forecast to keep climbing - that's been going for decades ,nothing new ,again linked to inflation( and that it quite low ,majorily sign waves most of the time)
Petrol prices high despite low oil prices.- lol oil prices are historically down ,its the taxes.
Discretionary spending based business folding - agree , not as alarming though.

BTW , during 2006-08 GFC , the unemployment was way low and consumer confidence index was way high so correlation does not exist ,( also RBA have some tools in hand to manage normal blubs ) if there would be any gfc(its not what but when) ,it would be global , not just because of sydney and Melbourne real estate,
Lastly
you gotta ask who made most of the money during this property runs - Goverment !!!

Rajorich.