"The Crash" has been called... end of 2017.

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Perthguy, 23rd Oct, 2015.

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  1. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    If you believe the crash is coming, why don't you sell out soon then buy again later? If you time this correctly you will be able to set yourself up for life.
     
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  2. Chabs

    Chabs Well-Known Member

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    Don't like the agenda media is pushing, doesn't match data. For e.g. South Australia had a rate at 1.89% in arrears, lifting the average. It would be more relevant if the arrears rate was rising in NSW/VIC which is where the data is more relevant.

    I think our banks are doing a good job at preventing a bubble burst, as far as I can see it would have to be something external to Australia to cause the bust, unless there is something hidden or implicit problems that we aren't seeing yet.
     
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  3. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    Has your property value increased?
     
  4. nate_au

    nate_au New Member

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    Do these bolded names represent anyone notable? Buyers agents, really? What a set of credentials they have. I might start quoting what I had for breakfast when giving my own commentary.

    Most of all I am interested in how fixing rates will protect against the predicted loss of at least one of the Australian financial pillars in 2 years time? Not at all, I would suggest, you will want to have some cash on hand to pay up if this scenario plays out, because that .1% uptick in delinquent loans cited in those articles could quite easily increase 200% times to 20% I am sure........

    You might detect a lack of conviction on my part at this point.
     
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  5. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Have you got a link to your supposed predicted loss of a financial pillar?
     
  6. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Just over 7 months to go...tick tock.:p:rolleyes:
     
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  7. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    It seriously does not look like the market is going to crash this year. Sydney may be stuttering but Melbourne is steaming ahead. The biggest thing missing is a catalyst.
     
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  8. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    The initial catalyst could very well be in place, restrictions on investor borrowing, increased supply of stock with the regulator controlling access to funds. Add to this possible changes to CG tax which will harm market sentiment in some areas and a downturn in Sydney and Melbourne is likely.
    Just like any cyclical downturn but no crash, immigration to these cities is still strong. What will happen in the numerous other markets around the country remains to be seen.
     
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  9. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    Immigration to regional areas is becoming a 'thing' now too. This makes this more interesting for everyone.
     
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  10. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it really depends on the region. Regional NSW and VIC looks like its going okay whereas population growth is negative in regional WA and slow in many parts of regional QLD.
     
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  11. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I agree. But it will be a correction, not a crash. Sydney last died in 2003 and barely had a pulse until 2013. Yet no one calls the boom that ended in 2003 a bubble and no one calls the correction a crash. Well, not unless they are trying to sell books ;)

    I wonder what their next prediction will be? o_O
     
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  12. supersam80

    supersam80 Well-Known Member

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    It very well could be however do you think the fhb stamp duty changes (in Victoria) will be enough to not just mitigate the above but keep the market going...?
     
  13. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

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    Like Dr Burry:





    And as portrayed in the big short:

     
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  14. BillV

    BillV Well-Known Member

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    Be patient and it will come.

    IMO current prices are not sustainable because as interest rates climb higher our borrowing capacity will decline and at the same time, home owners and investors will be hurting so some of them will sell.

    In 2007/8 people were hurting because interest rates were significantly higher than they are today.
    BUT today loans are in many cases double what they were back then so interest rates don't have to increase by as much to create the same amount of pain.

    If prices don't fall significantly, there will be a very long period of price stagnation as inflation and/or wages will have to catch up.
     
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  15. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    True but don't forget that while Australians might have record levels of debt, they are also sitting on the largest mountain of cash savings in history: more than a trillion dollars.

    https://amp.smh.com.au/business/the...-as-wealth-outpaces-debt-20170330-gv9xv0.html

    What impact would this trillion dollars have if there was some kind of US or Irish style crash?
     
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  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    If the market does not crash.... does anyone mind if I start a new thread 1 January 2018:p

    "I am calling the crash end of 2018".......
     
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  17. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Just start one every year. One year you could be right then call yourself a guru! :)
     
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  18. BillV

    BillV Well-Known Member

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    Its very hard to calculate the impact of interest rate rises and particularly as many people use offset accounts for parking their savings.

    But I agree, the ones who have those cash savings are not the people who will be hurting.

    As you know the stock market is also due for a big correction.
    I don't know what will trigger it but I recall last time we had a share market crash many investors, professionals and business people were margin called and had to sell properties in order to save their share portfolio
     
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  19. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    @BillV I think people have gone off margin loans a bit. I don't know what the value of margin loans is now.
     
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  20. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Agree. Too many fingers got burnt.... people are ok with using LOCs or cash to use for share purchasing though.
     
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