"The Crash" has been called... end of 2017.

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Perthguy, 23rd Oct, 2015.

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  1. House

    House Well-Known Member

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    SQM Research predicts Sydney house prices could rise by 18pc in 2017

    But also in the news on the same day from SQM...
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/re...t/news-story/5604355ef9dde4f9e61a5bc9d71b9b75

    :rolleyes:
     
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  2. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    Louis gave interview this morning and I only heard about the bubble concerns, that Brisbane has oversupply of apartments and Sydney will absorb new stocks without too much trouble.
     
  3. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    I read another article on the ABC today predicting the 40% crash for Sydney and Melbourne...
     
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  4. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Long story but basically prices overshot by quite a long way in the last boom. What this means is that prices have further to fall until they correct.
     
  5. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    as much as I give very little credibility to economists

    this guy isnt qualified, doesnt have a track record, isnt an unqualifled expert,

    you might as well ask Kim Kardashian for her opinion
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 10th Oct, 2021
  6. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    We have to remember he was selling a book and that “Armageddon Advertising” works.

    Why “Armageddon Advertising” Sells

    Australia is in the biggest housing bubble in history!!!
    By the end of 2017, the Australian property market will fail and take down a big 4 bank!!!
    Buy my book!!!
     
  7. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    He isn't qualified and doesn't have a track record, and as @Perthguy mentioned Armageddon sells and he's selling books and reports.
    I have read his books and he brings up some scary and real evidence of what could play out, especially the dangers that Australia does currently face which is more than any government is currently informing us on.

    In the past year sincing joining pchat when I was trying to link domain/news papers/property gurus etc, even started a thread on it, turns out people thought I was crazy.
    Since that early post I have also read many books on doom and gloom, followed closely on youtube or stalked them on twitter, read many articles by Jim rikards, Lindsay David, Steve keen, Jonathan tepper, George soros, harry dent, Morgan kelly(famous for that YouTube video prime time) and the list goes on and on.
    I did this so I could learn as to what and why they would say what the're saying, and after all those hours reading and researching I still have no clue what is going to happen to the property market.
     
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  8. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I knew Perth was going to go down and it went down. I picked the top of the market but I still don't know when it will bottom out. That's because no one has a crystal ball, despite how they market themselves ;)

    Some of these "experts" (a.k.a. book spruikers) have picked 8 out of the last 0 property crashes

    Oh, and I still can't afford a main residence in Perth :p
     
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  9. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    On a positive note, Perth prices are becoming more affordable and hopefully you get that house soon. I'm stuck in a rising market(Melbourne) that won't stop so can't afford the new ppor as yet.
    Seriously how long can a rising market keep rising for? It's been years, stop already. Can you predict Melbourne?
     
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  10. Magoo

    Magoo Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I have accurately predicted 5 out of the last zero peaks for Melbourne and Sydney :p

    Seriously, I can't pick a peak unless I am on the ground, going to auctions, going to home opens, talking to real estate agents.

    I only picked Perth because I was doing this. You can't pick a peak by stats until after it happens because the stats always lag. Despite the shrill opposition from certain posters, markets are driven by people making decisions. Unless you are on the ground with them, watching them and talking to them you won't have a clue.

    I know what you are saying though. Melbourne and Sydney can't keep rising forever but then they never seem to stop going up. I sold in Melbourne a year ago because the market had peaked. Then what happened in the last 12 months? That said, prices in the area I sold have gone down.
     
    Last edited: 3rd Nov, 2016
  12. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Lol, You did well to sell then. I have a feeling 2017 will see strong growth in Melbourne and Sydney when rba cuts rates in feb/march.
     
  13. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Probably. I wonder if my parents should hold off selling until March?
     
  14. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Don't listen to me, I'm usually wrong lol.
     
  15. Ross Forrester

    Ross Forrester Well-Known Member

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    Guys who try to pick a marke downfall will eventually be correct

    I think a starting point to creating wealth through property is to acknowledge that property will never outperform a well run successful business
     
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  16. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I'm fine with that considering I have 2 failed businesses under my belt ;)
     
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  17. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    They want to sell now.
    - find an agent (1 week if they are quick)
    - 4 week marketing campaign
    - puts them into the second week of December

    Is that really a good time to sell a house? I would have thought that people would be thinking about Christmas?
     
  18. hungusyd

    hungusyd Well-Known Member

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    Good house always sells, doesn't matter when
     
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  19. Ross Forrester

    Ross Forrester Well-Known Member

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    No such thing as a failed business

    Just a really valuable learning experience
     
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  20. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    I think you should start a new post with those above questions and the area. @melbournian is switched on about Melbourne markets. I only follow the a select few areas and surrounds I invested in. Good house will sell at most times, and I hear ya in regards to getting close to Christmas holidays. Start a thread, do a poll, mention block size, ect etc,
     

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