Crypto The Bitcoin RSI Model

Discussion in 'Other Asset Classes' started by Michael.Knight, 21st Oct, 2021.

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  1. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    I've been posting this in other threads over the years, but I thought I'd update it here. Something very interesting with the bitcoin price and rsi indicator, which measures momentum. If you look below at the Bitcoin / US Dollar price chart:

    ScreenHunter 326.jpg

    There were two previous bitcoin cycles, 2011-2014 and 2015-2018. In both cycles, there were two rsi peaks above 90. What is interesting is that the first rsi peak in both cycles actually telegraphed bitcoin's eventual cycle top, which turned out to be 4x the price at the first rsi peak.

    In the first cycle (2011-14), the first rsi peak was at $260. The second rsi peak ran upto ~$1100, around a 4x...

    In the second cycle (2015-2018, the first rsi peak was at $4765. Again, the second rsi peak wicked upto $19666, again around a 4x...

    If this third cycle (2019-2022?) plays out like the last two, the first rsi peak was at $61k usd in March this year. Could there be a second rsi peak later this year heading towards the rsi blue box, of 4x $61k, which would be around $244k usd?

    If there is, that's where I'll be exiting the market :cool:

    Follow me on Twitter @ESC_Professor
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 22nd Oct, 2021
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  2. Ouga

    Ouga Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for sharing here mate much appreciated
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 22nd Oct, 2021
  3. crosek

    crosek Well-Known Member

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    Good work man, yeah my target for this cycle peak is $250k so that lines up perfectly.

    There is so much confluence around that area from all different perspectives. The only thing I’m not sure on still is do we have a peak and blow off top into December or do we have a muted peak (like in May) consolidate and then peak mid 2022. Again lots of data to show both scenarios are possible.

    I will look you up on Twitters now, much easier there :)
     
  4. samiam

    samiam Well-Known Member

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    How about Eth?
     
  5. Michael.Knight

    Michael.Knight Well-Known Member

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    Ethereum doesnt have the history, smaller market cap and so is more volatile, so there is no pattern on the charts yet.
     
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