The Best News and a New Era - Denuclearization, North/South Korea

Who would have thought this would be happening

North, South Korea agree on denuclearization of peninsula after historic meeting

Some will remain sceptical, lets see what happens.

 

I'm sceptical that NK will actually give up it's nuclear weapons. Doing so would be a significant risk for the leadership (in a place where leadership changes tend to be fatal).

There's still a lot to be gained here however, it's a step in the right direction. The most reliable think about NK seems to be that they are unreliable in negotiations, but it's still progress.

 

Is it just me or could he be fooling everyone? I feel like he is keeping his enemies closer. I think he is plotting something

 

Everybody is plotting something. There's no such thing as "good guys" at this level.

 

I don't think NK was ever actually going to nuke anyone. Their whole deal for decades has been to act like they are, because they want to be taken seriously on the world stage (surrounded by large neighbours and adjacent to a country with idealogically-opposed US troops stationed in its backyard), and because it gives the administration control over its people who live in relative poverty. When people are unhappy, governments get overthrown, so governments badly need to have something to provide. In NK's case this is protection from a threat they've exaggerated to keep people in line. No one wants to rise up, because of the big scary outside world they think is against them.

By doing this, KJU has committed a masterstroke. The NK people adore him. He's given them protection and now he's making peace, giving them the unification they've always wanted. From that inside perspective to many he is a genius, not an oppressor. Making peace will have huge economic advantages, and will make him look like a hero.

From an outside perspective NK has also achieved a lot. They've shown the world (and North Koreans) they have nukes and can make them again. Now, they can come to the table, make peace and get their sanctions lifted. Whether they give up nukes now is irrelevant (even if their capability has been practically destroyed by a mountain falling down on their test site) because they've already foist themselves into the global psyche as a serious (if crazy) player who shouldn't be messed with. They've made America look bad (raving lunatic president engaging in brinkmanship), they've made China look lazy, and now they're swanning into diplomacy to reap all the benefits of peacemaking.

The bad part of this good news is they can go back to Plan A after their economy improves, if they think it will get them somewhere more advantageous, or if they need a scapegoat (the evil outside world) to keep their own people in line.

 

No master stroke on KJU, just simply taking a harder stand, sanctions

Why North Korea’s Change of Heart on Peace Negotiations?

Extract
As a result, the regime’s access to fuel, food, international markets, and capital goods has been dramatically reduced in the past three years. Even major aid agencies are beginning to scale back their presence due to financial sanctions.

The regime, however, remains committed to its “Juche” doctrine of self-sufficiency, relishing its relatively advanced military capability. Yet, the international sanctions have been severe enough to frustrate recent efforts by the regime to modernize the country, stabilize the economy, and close its yawning gap with its southern neighbor

North Korea is yet to fully master their weapons delivery system, namely the ability to ensure precise targeting upon re-entry of their intercontinental ballistic missiles into the atmosphere from space.

 

I think the US comes out of this smelling of roses personally. Sanctions have done their job. Hopefully this was the plan all along though for NK.

 

I call conspiracy.

NK was never a real threat.
After Middle East there has been no major conflict (bar Syria which has been ongoing).

Enter NK..

Reaches 'fever pitch'.

Congress signs off on largest ever defence budget in the history.. with no current conflict on hand..

Then 2 weeks after it is signed off, NK issues has fizzled out..

Just public manipulation and a boys club deal..
oldest trick in the book.

Any of you who believed NK was a real potential conflict are fools.

 

Never underestimate a potential threat, that would be foolish.

 

If this does play out against expectation, expect NK to boom in 5-10 years.. Now how do I buy some NK land? hmm

 

Agree
So some dont know that North Korea attacked South Korea not sure what year???

 

Oh the conspiracy theory....

They need NK to increase defence spending....you must be joking..... Its already happened

 

Successfully sent a missile to Guam (US territory) disarmed by the US last year. We can be thankful the US did not start WW3.

 

That makes sense

 

Well, grossly oversimplifying things but, that goes back to WW2 (why SK has US protection). SK is also a democracy versus NK's more communist/ dictatorial leanings (cold war issues here). There have been skirmishes/ attacks since. To say NK does not have military power is ignorant as they also have powerful allies. Let's hope peace talks work.

 

There's going to be enormous economic consequences if the countries ever reunited and I reckon it would take the country back by 30 years to build it back up as it took some time for East and West Germany to build up. I am also aware that the muffin man has committed some awful acts against humanity and seems like he is getting total immunity for his crimes.

 

Like the US needs an excuse to increase spending to their military

 

this shows Kim's ambitions for himself. His grandfather and father both worshipped like gods over there whilst he had nothing to build his legacy on except for a few family murders. To be able to say he was the leader that ended the war and lead NK to new era, one ups his predecessors achievements and lets him build monuments for himself.
He'd be a fool to let go of NK's nuclear leverage (as concocted as it may be), look at what happened to Gadaffi after he let go of nuclear weapons

 

Before anyone gets to excited about North Korea "voluntarily" ending their nuclear program ... google "Mt Mantap Collapse". There any many reporting websites.

It appears the real reason behind the closing is that the test site has collapse in on itself, killing 200+ workers, and is now leaking radiation into North Korea and China.

North Korea to ‘close’ nuke test site, unify time zone with Seoul

 

When you consider the recent hostile standoff between and to get to this point, a complete turnaround where they are now all talking is extraordinary. Lots of work in the background to get to this point, US got brownie points for this one.

How it pans out, time will tell.