The 18 year real-estate clock

Great question. Not sure as I haven't to been to his presentation.

 

They wont. There was this little thing called the GFC.....

Credit is still very easy. But I/O lending isnt going to be allowed as easily. You can have lots of extra $$$ if you are willing to take P&I .

 

10 years might look ok, but 20 years out looks dodgy to me. The global economy is in for some serious problems as automation and AI start to severely displace humans. It used to be that geeks were quite upbeat about the future, but even now they are starting to realise what is coming....

Why Automation Won't Displace Human Workers - Slashdot

The beginning of automation saw a replacement of human and animal muscle power with water and (later) chemical power. There was little displacement going on, and the increase in output was a necessity anyway due to there being severe shortages. No problems here, quite the opposite.

The next wave was the replacement of menial work with mechanical work. Especially in agriculture a lot of farmhands were replaced by machinery. Low skilled jobs were eliminated in favor of higher skilled jobs that again increased output. This did displace workers and was one of the reasons of the early problems with working poor in the early days of the industrial revolution, where farmhands that were out of a job now moved to the cities where industries offered them.

Next in line were industry jobs getting the same axing, with more streamlining and fewer low skilled jobs being replaced by mechanical workers. This was buffered by the emerging service industry that could gobble up the eliminated low education workforce. That we were fighting world spanning wars around that time sure also helped.

Fast forward to today. Again, jobs are being replaced by robots. This time around, though, none of the former buffering and mitigating factors come into play. We do not need more production. We already produce more than we can sell. By some margin and then some. We also cannot put more people into the service sector, 3 out of 4 people are already working there, and a service industry is highly dependent on people having spare spending money, so these people will not be moving towards another industry branch. They also cannot move anywhere because there is nowhere to go where jobs are being offered.

This time around this is going to sting.​

 

Don't forget Anderson's cycle of 14 years in a generally upward trend includes a mid-point where there is some pull-back/stalling (so it's not all rosy ahead). His forecast is 2019/2020 for this pull-back/stalling and then a second stronger upward cycle ahead of the collapse in 2025/2026 according to his cycle.

Interestingly he has just made mention of the reintroduction of interest-only loans in the UK.

Also Money Morning and The Daily Reckoning are the free newsletters published by Port Phillip Publishing. Andersons' CTF is a subscription newsletter they offer as do they offer many others.

 

Here's an interesting thread on Aussies Stock Forums on macro cycles Macro Cycles 2014-2018 - Aussie Stock Forums

Predicts US will enter recession in early 2019.

 

Copy of a post from that thread:
'Hi,

I'm currently focused on Recession research rather than markets at the moment, as I think we're at the stage where that is the primary factor that has a high level probability of swinging the market outcome roughly 40-50% over the coming years (EG. XAO 4000 vs 6000).

Interesting Info:

- Since 1780, the longest time from the end of a U.S Recession to the start of the next U.S Recession is exactly 10 years. This would mean a centuries old record would be broken if the U.S lasted exactly 3 more years (until April 2019) without a Recession.

- Since 1926, 2 out of 3 recessions have started in the 2nd half of the year.'

 

Depends on who you listen too, some say they are already in a recession. Peter Schiff is one.

 

Did he mention anything regarding restrictions for Aussie banks?

 

This is what he said:

'In the UK, the ‘interest-only mortgage’ is making a comeback.

In order to get one, you only need to show that you earn a sufficient amount and have a repayment strategy at the end of the loan.

After the global financial crisis, interest-only mortgages were outlawed. They were branded at the time as ‘ticking time bombs’ by the City regulator.

And now they are back.

They are back because they lower the repayment required, of course. And repayments have to be lowered because land prices have gone up.

And up.

And up.

We said they would.

Increase lending, lower mortgage repayments.

Anything the bank can do to increase market share.

We told you last week how Donald Trump will now overturn previous financial legislation and regulation in the United States.

Seeing a theme here? This is how the cycle repeats.

There’s more. Bloomberg reports that a Florida hedge fund bought up ‘junk’ grade mortgage debt and packaged them into bonds.

These bonds were given an A-rating and sold to investors.

These are basically the same products that, in 2006 and 2007, turned toxic and brought down the global financial system.

This is all part of the cycle. Again.'

 

I guess the next recession will be in 2019 since Kingdom Tower in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia will be the tallest tower on the planet by then.

This is based on The Cantillon Effect | Phil Anderson

 

It looks like Australia is doomed by the Skyscraper index. The Orion Towers will be the tallest building in the Southern Hemisphere...

Orion Towers to Become Tallest in Southern Hemisphere

It's only in proposal, but the Spirit Tower is under construction, and due for completion in 2019. So expect property prices to collapse by then.

Incidentally, that ties in with @Tekoz's prediction.

 

somehow according to this poll that I have conduct: Recession and Financial crisis indicator most of the people here mentioned that the Recession will be in 2020 or beyond.