Sydney’s auction market bounces back

Chinese New Year heralds in a steady market

Thoughts?

72.5% clearance rate is a huge jump from last week.

 

Melb up too.

Real estate sales always drops off late in the year and don't pick up until after Australia Day.

It's a combination of the quality of stock drying up and the Holliday season.

 

This makes me think whether we've all misjudged the Syd market. Rather than a 10-15% drop over the next 12-18 months as most people expect on PC (some predict an even more significant correction), the market might just remain steady.

There's fair bit of pent-up demand from FHB's who've been priced out of the market last 2 years, coming back in on the back of all the press re "buyers market". This might just give enough support to the market for it to steady out rather than drop back.

 

Personally I think it's cooked for the moment but I'm no doomsdayer. Steady with inflation is my bet for a few years.

My money's on Melb to grow strongly for a few to catch up some lost ground on Syd.

 

It would be nice if it were true, but there is evidence that various pockets in Syd have already started slowing down, more properties on the market and less buyers. In particular Syd Western suburbs.
I think it would take a brave person to be jumping into this market when its either peaked or close to peak.

MTR

 

Melbourne's typical house price will never reach Sydney's.... the geography and crappy transport of Sydney means if you have a limited budget then you live somewhere not particularly desirable for a reasonable house price or you live in a unit. House prices in well located areas will never become cheap in Sydney, there's just so much demand so you might as well jump in and buy a well located home when you can afford it if you want to live here. Your only other viable alternative for a well located property is a unit or townhouse somewhere, but units are much easier to supply than new well located houses.

On the other hand, Melbourne still has plenty of scope to build reasonably affordable new housing in almost every direction and to an extent that helps keeps a lid on house price increases. Of course, Toorak is Toorak, but for those less picky you can buy much more affordably with not as much tradeoff in terms of travel time (relative to the same sort of property in Sydney)

 

That's just it.

It could be that the North, East and Inner West remains steady as the pent-up demand from FHG's or upgraders who bought a cheapie and now want to upgrade keeps the market steady. And West, South-west are the only areas to see a correction as the same people that were thinking of buying in these areas move their focus back to the inner rings. So the falls will be limited to the west and southwest.

 

hmm.. I am not sure if most PC people think that though..

 

Syd market has been and gone. I refi and pulled cash out of my sydney holdings at the peak and wont revisit them again for a few years.

 

Spoken to one of our key contacts and the market is steady. I'm seeing prices same or higher than October 2015

Post March data will show what's truly happening

 

With Sydney I reckon if your property isnt "East of Parramatta" (roughly speaking more or less) then you want:
* Good transport or a strong well built ethnic community presence (with churches, shops etc)
* Low crime and a nice looking neighbourhood
*Nice to have well regarded schools, hospitals, uni nearby

These drivers will all support prices as they will attract demand. Otherwise... be prepared for price drops.

 

Yes and no. Like you observe there is only one toorak, there is also particularly desireable geography and demographics in most of the inner east and inner south east. It's still finite. We can knock it down and cut it up but only so many times.

Melbournes population is set to overtake Sydney. Regardless of geography this will see Melb ultimately catching Sydney. When I don't know. Will it overtake, well that really depends on employment opportunities and population. But as you say Sydney is geographically constrained Melb is not. Seems to me it's got more scope to grow long term.

 

I reckon sometime before 2050 Melbourne's population will overtake Sydney's (more land to build housing), but Sydney's house prices will be higher. Sydney has got to go highrise for it to take on more people.

Jobs... Will more and more companies start their Australian headquarters in Melbourne instead of Sydney? Quite possibly maybe, because I think it has to be cheaper to do business there. Will Melbourne be the place to be in the future for jobs? Maybe. But note that I personally like a warmer climate. Plus Sydney Harbour is very pretty....

I still think Melbourne's house prices wont catch up to Sydney's, but having very expensive realestate probably isn't such a good thing for the nation anyway. But if you are in the Sydney (or Melbourne) market I'd sit back, relax and enjoy. And then still be on the lookout to accumulate more. Long term, properties in both cities will go up.

 

+1

 

Markets are always cyclical. Too much energy spent on analysing has been.