Sydney

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Barny, 16th Aug, 2016.

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  1. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

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    What happened to the last ten years on the graph :rolleyes: (yes, its up there now:rolleyes:)

    I would like to think that we are well above average now :oops:
    But don't see it slowing until after summer :p
    Any correction wont happen until after April 2017 :confused:
    (I hope)
     
  2. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    Oops, I read that as 2016.
    Right you, are carry on, nothing to see here...
     
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  3. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    No issues with house demand in Epping and its still extremely difficult to buy anywhere near the station unless your budget is over $2mil. Apartments are a different kettle of fish though, I feel there's a huge number of units that will be available sometime, lots of developments. But what I feel on my area is that people around Epping arent stressed about their home loans, residents are definitely feeling well off. I bought a really nice home but sold a good home at a good price too so there's no mortgage stress at my end. I think the buyers of my old home also did the same thing, I dont know for sure but I assume they might not have too large of a mortgage either to deal with (I did a search of their old address) :D
     
  4. twistedstats

    twistedstats Well-Known Member

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    My take on Sydney (and Melbourne) is that it is a market where the marginal buyer is an overseas one and this is the most significant factor. It's hard to tell when this will end...so dependent it is on policies like foreign buyers tax and effectiveness of Chinese capital controls. A one off 20% depreciation of the RMB might do the trick.

    One thing i've noticed in hurstville, ads for houses seem to be on the market with a 'offers invited' or a private sale with stated price rather than going to auction. May be a sign things are slowing. Would be good to confirm with someone on the ground.
     
  5. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

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    In the last two weeks I have received calls from three different agents.

    Each had been going back thru their older contacts trying to "stay in contact" and "we have several properties you may be interested in".... (each also included an OTP in their spiel)

    So YES, Id say south Sydney, in the Shire things aren't selling as quickly as they were.
    Maybe people are becoming more discerning, they are running out of funds, aren't buying "for the sake of it", or all the cheaper stock is long gone......

    Prices don't seem to have slowed, but time on market may have increased.
     
  6. Depreciator

    Depreciator Well-Known Member

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    I have heard, anecdotally, that a lot of Chinese buyers are now finding it harder to get their funds out of China than expected as settlement looms on their OTP purchases.
     
  7. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for sharing, good to know what is happening in all markets.
    East and Inner West still powering.

    Anyone got "on the ground" reports for South West, West and North West?
     
  8. samiam

    samiam Well-Known Member

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    same old story with otp at parramatta; the one that we did not buy 2 years ago. That agent keeps emailing/shaming us that its now worth 150-200 k more, etc. I just saw the same units coming on sales at the original price. its "priceless" :p
     
  9. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    I'm wondering if this, rather than the 15% overseas buyer tax, is the cause of the downturn in Vancouver.

    I've got a feeling that other global cities are having a slowdown, so it could be a worldwide thing. For example, there's talk of drops in London, but reports are mixed, and Brexit will be having an effect.
     
  10. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    Just as an addenda to my last post, this quote comes from an article from the FT back in January.

    London has long been a lovely haven for international buyers. But with commodity prices collapsing and China slowing, the bread and butter of the high-end market isn’t as well off as it was: no Russian oil billionaires are going to spend £60m on a penthouse apartment in Hyde Park this year. Quite the opposite: I’ve already heard of several massive price cuts from “distressed sellers”. The great unwinding of the global credit bubble can take London houses down with it just as easily as it can take steel mills.
     
  11. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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  12. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    I remember this
     
  13. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    As I said, there are mixed signals in the UK. The RICS survey of estate agents is showing negative sentiment, and the Rightmove index of asking prices was down, but the Nationwide sales price index was up.

    House prices: One in four expect to see a fall

    I think that it's too early to make any predictions about how the economy is going to be affected. You've got half the population expecting doom and gloom, and the other half expecting economic boom. Time will tell which is correct.
     
  14. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

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    Correct, I think "how" people are feeling about the economy varies between age groups.
    Some senior persons expect the bust after the boom, so have a doom and gloom outlook.
    Some of the 30ish+ group see opportunity and have hope, things will continue upwards.

    It is hard to estimate which way our economy will head, with so much of it transitioning to a services based/orientated economy we cant look to the past for a cycle.
     
  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    The facts of the Sydney market and its direction is based on the vehicle.....FINANCE

    The brokers I use....are now reporting chinks in the armour......a lot of off the plan apartments/townhouses/H+L packages are not coming in on valuations....

    This contagion ...will spread to established properties shortly....will be interesting to see....it takes time but it will happen. The craziness cannot go on forever...the question is what will cause the deceleration in prices in Sydney this time. A recession??
     
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  16. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    Depression
    Recession
    Perm exit of chinese buyers
    Recession
    Depression
    Rate rise
     
  17. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Is that just for sydney or Melbourne too?
     
  18. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I have seen so many ppl (this syd cycle) buy at the right part of the cycle but not buying well and therefore affecting their overall return. I think both are quite important imo.

    Otherwise its like getting in early beating the crowd to see the fireworks but choosing a far side view rather then front on.
     
    Last edited: 7th Sep, 2016
  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Inner Melbourne also.....and apartments there....outer is looking healthy the affordability and decentralisation causes people to look there for lifestyle reasons also.
     
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  20. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    'ang on ...you missed some growth in between...;)